Frozen Tools Forensics: Shots and Forwards

Grant Campbell

2019-09-06


Another great feature of Dobber’s Frozen Tools is the Shots tab and the breakdown it provides for shots from various distances, shots attempted, shots on goal, EV SOG, PP SOG, and SH SOG.

I thought it would be interesting to go back over four seasons of data and see if there were forwards who thrived at certain distances and what players paid the price to get the shots from in close the most. Is there a pattern that emerges for older or younger players as they develop or decline with their goal production?

We will start with the top ten forwards in 2015-2016 for shots from zero to 15 feet away and see how they have fared in the years till now:

All information is from Dobber’s Frozen Tools Report Generator.

 

Boone Jenner led forwards with 103 shots from zero to 15 feet (SOG 0-15), and had 30 goals that year while boasting a 13.3 shooting percentage on 225 SOG on 344 SAT (shot attempts) at the age of 22. If we look at the four seasons from 2015-2016 to 2018-2019, we can see a pattern emerging as to why Jenner’s goal totals have gone down along with his shooting percentage.

 

Even though his TOI was higher in 2018-2019 than it had been in prior years and he is still on the PP, his PP SOG have decreased from 47 to 13, and his SOG 0-15 have decreased from 103 to 41. He had nine PP goals in his one 30-goal year and is now lucky to see one or two. He’s not nearly as effective when he’s not shooting from in close when given PP time. Jenner is just an example of how difficult it is to predict what will happen, as looking at his 22-year-old season, he had just scored 30 goals and seemed to be trending up. It’s amazing that something as simple as his deployment on the PP could have such an effect on his future production.

Wayne Simmonds’s production fell off considerably last season, split between Philadelphia and Nashville, and he is hoping to rebound. Let’s look at his shot numbers since 2015-2016.