Fantasy Take: Pageau shipped to the Islanders

Michael Clifford

2020-02-24

Trade Deadline Day usually doesn't start fast and furious, but that wasn't the case this year. We got a handful of significant trades before lunch, one of them being Ottawa's Jean-Gabriel Pageau being shipped off to the Islanders for a trio of picks.

 

To the Senators

First-round pick in 2020 (top-3 lottery protected)

Second-round pick in 2020

Conditional third-round pick in 2022 if the Islanders win the Cup

 

To the Islanders

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

The Islanders get a player who can realistically slot all over the lineup. He could be the second-line right winger, third-line centre, or even top-line centre in case of injuries. I believe, in a perfect world, Pageau would slot as the third-line centre for the Isles, leaving the team to look something like this (when healthy):

Lee-Barzal-Eberle

Beauvillier-Nelson-Bailey

Bellows-Pageau-Komarov

Martin-Cizikas-Clutterbuck

We can quibble about who slots into the bottom-6, particularly on the wings, but that's roughly what the lineup should look like.

This move likely cuts into minutes for Cizikas when he returns and could even cut into Nelson's ice time as well. Pageau is good at both ends of the ice, so there will be nights when he outperforms Nelson, leading to Pageau's line getting more ice time. Barry Trotz isn't a guy who has a strict regimen of how he hands out minutes to depth. Whoever is playing well will get ice time, and that means Pageau is a threat to Nelson's ice time.

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Pageau has never been a big producer, though. On top of that, he has nine PPPs this year (had four in his career before 2019-20), which is a reason he's been able to put up 40 points in 60 games (previous career high of 43 in 2015-16). It seems doubtful he's immediately slotted to the top PP unit, so now you have a guy who is going to get worse offensive line mates, fewer minutes at even strength, and will now see his PP ice time cut.

It seems like this is a case where Pageau will have more real-life value than fantasy value. Everything should take a hit from face-off wins, to hits, to shots, and obviously points. Pageau goes to a playoff team, but it's hard to see this as an upgrade for him, fantasy-wise.

This could help Josh Norris in Ottawa, though. In his first game since being recalled, he played over 15 minutes and took 14 face-offs. He had the most ice time of any centre on the team not named Pageau, so with Pageau gone, it seems possible he moves up the lineup significantly. The team plays Monday night so we should get some clarity soon.

 

This helps:

Josh Norris

Kieffer Bellows

Josh Bailey

 

This hurts:

Jean-Gabriel Pageau

Brock Nelson

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