Capped: Valuing goalies in cap leagues

Alexander MacLean

2020-03-12

 

I know I have tried to do a lot recently on ranking players in salary cap leagues, in addition to sorting out salary predictions that I could use as another evaluation tool in the rankings. However, as a few people have pointed out to me recently, there are no goalie rankings anywhere for salary cap leagues. My goal of this week's article isn't to provide a full set of rankings (I wish I had enough free time to do so), but I hope to at least provide a basis of thought for evaluating goalies, and how I approach a few situations.

 

Before we get into the evaluations, I found this interesting. Below are the top players for points and wins in the 2016-2017 season (three years ago). One of these still looks reasonable, the other one looks like the names were all shuffled together compared to this season.

 

 

For skaters, I generally take the next three years into consideration, weighting the current year at 50 percent, with 35 percent year two, and 15 percent year three. However, goalies are much more variable, and as a result, trying to project them more than two years into the future can be a fool's errand. From there, I have found by evaluating the skaters, that a 70-30 ratio of value between the production and cap-hit seems to balance well. However, by spending less on the risky business that is goaltending, we can stack skaters a little more, so a 60/40 (1.5:1) ratio should generally work better for goalies.

Goalie salaries tend to peak around age 32 as I have found by looking at some numbers over the last few