Ramblings: Primary Assists Among Defensemen – Ristolainen, Ekblad, Carlson (Apr 5)
Ian Gooding
2020-04-05
US President Donald Trump met with the commissioners of the various sports leagues on Saturday, which of course included NHL commissioner Gary Bettman. Trump said he hopes that fans will be back in stadiums by August and September, and he believes that the NFL could start on time in September. All I can say is that I hope that's the case, but at this point we're probably talking about a very best-case scenario here.
While you are waiting for the leagues to start, why not take stock of your keeper league prospect situation. New writer Dave Hall has you covered with Draft Worthy Defenders in 2020 for The Journey. One of the d-men profiled was Devils prospect Ty Smith. If you follow the WHL or prospects in general, you may remember his hat trick and eight-point game in late February for the Spokane Chiefs. As I told Dave over email, I don't think it will be long before you'll see Smith running the New Jersey first-unit power play.
Continuing with my running theme of primary assists to secondary assists, today is about the leaders among defensemen for primary assists compared to secondary assists. As has been the case before, each player has to have a minimum of 20 total assists. These d-men are sorted by secondary assists per primary assists, so lower is better in terms of primary assists.
Name | GP | A | A1 | A2 | A1-A2 | A2/A1 |
RASMUS RISTOLAINEN | 69 | 27 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 0.500 |
DMITRY ORLOV | 69 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 0.533 |
MATTIAS EKHOLM | 68 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 0.563 |
AARON EKBLAD | 67 | 36 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 0.565 |
JOHN CARLSON | 69 | 60 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 0.579 |
JOHN KLINGBERG | 58 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0.625 |
VICTOR HEDMAN | 66 | 44 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 0.630 |
MIRO HEISKANEN | 68 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 0.688 |
ERIK KARLSSON | 56 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 0.700 |
ADAM FOX | 70 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 0.700 |
CALE MAKAR | 57 | 38 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 0.727 |
ROMAN JOSI | 69 | 49 | 28 | 21 | 7 | 0.750 |
IVAN PROVOROV | 69 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 0.769 |
CHARLIE MCAVOY | 67 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 0.800 |
TOREY KRUG | 61 | 40 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 0.818 |
JOHN MARINO | 56 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0.818 |
SETH JONES | 56 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0.846 |
DOUGIE HAMILTON | 47 | 26 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0.857 |
RASMUS DAHLIN | 59 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 0.895 |
The three defensemen that jumped out at me are all owned in most fantasy leagues.
The Sabres' blueliner was on track for his fifth consecutive 30-assist season, although he was also on pace to finish below 40 points for the first time over those five seasons. The slightly below average projections have much to do with overall icetime and power-play time both being down. Since Rasmus Dahlin is now on the team, Ristolainen is no longer leaned on heavily for 25 minutes per game, and he has been bumped off the first-unit power play.
Ristolainen has been known for his multicategory value over the past few seasons, some of which has been due to his heavy usage by the Sabres. He has reached 200 hits for three consecutive seasons, and over that span only seven players have recorded more hits. When you combine that with the fact that he's been a 40-point scorer for several seasons, he's been a must-own blueliner. Unfortunately, because of lower usage this season, his power-play points, shots, and blocked shots are all projected to be down.
The fact that two-thirds of Ristolainen's assists were of the primary variety helps his cause going into next season. However, his name has been tied to trade speculation for at least a year, so you may want to wait for offseason activity (whenever that will be) before writing any projections in pen. Even without the first-unit power-play time and with the slightly reduced minutes, there's still a lot to like from a multicategory fantasy perspective.
It's easy to forget that Ekblad is still only 24, even though he's already been in the league for six seasons. With that in mind, defensemen can take longer to develop, and that might be the case with Ekblad. He had already reached a career high with 41 points (most of which was even strength) and was on pace to even push for 50 points.
The relatively high primary assist total could mean that there's even more room for growth; however, Keith Yandle stands in the way of Ekblad being the point producer that he could be. With Yandle on the point for the first-unit power play, Ekblad received less than half of the power-play minutes that Yandle received this season. That meant a huge difference in power-play points (Yandle's 21 PPP compared to Ekblad's 6 PPP). If Mike Hoffman signs elsewhere this offseason, there's at least an outside chance Ekblad could climb onto the first-unit power play, although not many teams use the 3F/2D arrangement anymore.
There's also more room for goals from Ekblad. In spite of the spike in points, Ekblad was on pace to miss reaching 10 goals for the first time in his career. This was due to a 3.4 SH%, which is less than half of what he usually attains. Ekblad is usually reliable for shots as well, as he is 13th in shots among defensemen over the six seasons that he has played. If he can keep that up, then it wouldn't be out of the question for him to push for 50 points, even without the first-unit power-play time. All of the firepower that the Panthers possess can certainly help with that.
Carlson didn't check in with the highest percentage of primary assists to secondary assists, but he had the highest numerical difference between primary assists and secondary assists. In fact, Carlson's 38 primary assists trailed only Leon Draisaitl and Jonathan Huberdeau in that category; and only Draisaitl, Connor McDavid, and Artemi Panarin finished with more overall assists. And as you probably know, Carlson led all defensemen in scoring (75 points).
It's also notable that Norris Trophy rival Roman Josi is also on this list, which should illustrate the staying power of these two defensemen fantasy-wise going forward. To fill the void of no hockey, I've already seen end-of-season award discussions popping up, which includes the Norris Trophy debate between Carlson and Josi. Is Carlson's scoring enough for him to win, or will Josi win because of his better all-around play? Tough call, but this is a fantasy site, so I'll redirect to a more relevant question.
That question would be whether Carlson the first defenseman you should draft in fantasy leagues next season. I would say most likely he is, but it's worth mentioning that his white-hot start to the season wasn't likely sustainable. Over his first 23 games he had recorded 35 points already, but after that it took him double that number of games (46 games) to record 40 points. Yet even if no more hockey is played in the 2019-20 season, Carlson has recorded back-to-back 70+ point seasons. As well, he has the highest point total of all defensemen over the past three seasons (213 points). With his situation in Washington unlikely to change next season, he'll be more than okay for you.
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Since there isn't a ton happening in the hockey world right now, feel free to leave any questions or comments, and I may discuss them in a future Ramblings. For more fantasy hockey information, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.