Ramblings: Grubauer Injured, Vegas Goalie Controversy, Explaining My Picks (Aug 23)

Ian Gooding

2020-08-23

The second round (conference quarterfinals) began on Saturday with the heavily favored Colorado Avalanche taking on the Dallas Stars. To find out how many of our writers chose the Avalanche, see our Experts Panel: Playoff Round 2 Predictions, posted earlier today.

Dallas 5, Colorado 3 (Dallas leads series 1-0)

Well, how many of us want to change our picks to Dallas? I'll say probably not that many, although at least we know the Avalanche won't sweep this series. One concern for the Avs, though, is the fact that Philipp Grubauer left the game in the second period with a possible groin injury. It looks like he's going to miss some games.

That means the Avalanche's Stanley Cup hopes will rest on the shoulders of Pavel Francouz for the foreseeable future. That's not necessarily a terrible thing, as Francouz posted a better goals-against average, save percentage, and quality start percentage in nearly the same number of regular-season games. The Avalanche should be able to outscore any goaltending issues they may have on many nights, so I think this would only become a big problem if Francouz were to get injured as well. Don't panic about that pick just yet.

Erik Johnson also left the game for the Avalanche, but at least he was able to return.

The Stars continue to score at an incredible pace. Not known for their scoring under the Jim Montgomery/Rick Bowness regime, they've put up at least five goals in four of their last six games. The Jamie BennAlexander RadulovTyler Seguin line combined for eight points in Game 1, with Radulov leading the charge with two goals and an assist. Benn chipped in three assists, while Seguin scored a goal and added an assist.

Surprising through all the recent offense, Seguin's goal was his first of the postseason and also his first over 12 combined regular-season and postseason games. Blake Comeau's goal was also his first in 21 games.

Among the playoff scoring leaders is Miro Heiskanen, who is currently tied for second with 13 points. Although Heiskanen should already be considered a top-tier NHL defenseman, he has never scored at even close to this pace at the NHL level. In his sophomore season, Heiskanen was on pace for 42 points over a full season. Icetime might have a bit to do with the increased production, as he is averaging over two more minutes per game more during the playoffs than the regular season. He has also been benefitting from the recent scoring surge. So if the Stars open things up, he's going to benefit just by all the icetime he receives.

Even though the Avalanche won't be happy with the result, Nathan MacKinnon continues to pile up the points. With two goals and an assist in Game 1, Nate Dogg has extended his postseason point streak to nine games, including multiple points in three consecutive games. He has also fired 21 shots over his last four games. Not surprisingly, he leads the league in postseason scoring (16 points) and shots (39).  

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If you follow player agent Allan Walsh on Twitter, you probably know that he likes to promote his clients and is not afraid to stir the pot while doing so. His latest tweet shows a picture of Marc-Andre Fleury being stabbed in the back by a sword with the name "DEBOER" on it. He's obviously unhappy with the fact that Fleury has been benched for Robin Lehner in the playoffs (only two postseason starts for Fleury), but that image is in completely poor taste. While goaltending battles haven't been that uncommon during the playoffs, Walsh's strong opinion turns the Fleury/Lehner situation into a far greater distraction than it should be.

We know that Lehner will be a UFA again this offseason, while Flower has two more years on his contract at $7 million per. Do the Golden Knights have to now turn their attention to trading Fleury while competing with other teams for Lehner's services? Or do they reach out to Walsh to reassure him that Lehner is just a rental and that Fleury will be the starter again next season? Or do they ignore the agent's attention-seeking tactics altogether? All teams need to make these kinds of difficult personnel decisions, but we rarely see something like this go public, especially in this manner. One thing that Walsh isn't doing is helping his client's team win a playoff series, which won't benefit his client if he is called in to play.  

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As I mentioned before, be sure to check out our writers' Round 2 picks here.

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I'll take this opportunity to explain my picks. I fared a little better in Round 1 than in the play-in round, choosing four of the eight series correctly. For anyone thinking I should do better than that, picking game/series results isn't the reason I was brought on to Dobber Hockey. I don't bet money on teams, and for years and years I've found picking playoff winners to be a crapshoot. Heck, I've probably lost more money betting on playoff series in than I've won, which dates all the way back to high school for me. If you think I'm a complete idiot, then just do the opposite of me. Like George Costanza.

Philadelphia vs. NY Islanders

I really, really, like the Islanders here. They are an extremely well-coached team that has hit its stride at just the right time. And the writers are giving them the respect that they deserve. Even though the Flyers defeated the Canadiens in six games, they didn't blow me away in that series. However, the Flyers were my pick out of the East, and I have to keep my word and stick with them here. Carter Hart looks great, and their lines look well-balanced. It won't be easy for them, though. Philly in 7.

Tampa Bay vs. Boston

This was also a really tough call for me here. I don't think the Bruins lose much with Jaroslav Halak in net. Not having Steven Stamkos might catch up to the Lightning. However, now that the Bolts have slayed their dragon in Columbus, they look like they might be ready for a deep run (think Vancouver in 2011 vs. Chicago or Washington in 2018 vs. Pittsburgh). If I don't get the winner right, I think I at least get the number of games. Tampa in 7.

Vegas vs. Vancouver

I call this my "emotional hedge." I want Vancouver to win. I didn't think they'd get past St. Louis, so I picked the Blues. I'm happy, even though I get one of my picks wrong. Now the Nucks face another perceived tougher opponent. Vegas is fast, strong, and ticks the boxes off in just about every area. Maybe the young, fast Canucks can pull off another upset here, but I can't help but think that Vegas and Colorado are on a collision course to the Western Conference final. Vegas in 6.

Colorado vs. Dallas

The Avalanche didn't just beat the Coyotes, they steamrolled them by a combined score of 14-2 in the last two games. They were my Stanley Cup pick at the start of the playoffs, and I feel just as confident about that pick now. Dallas showed the kind of scoring that I didn't think they would in their previous series with Calgary, as well as in Game 1. Yet in spite of the Game 1 loss, I still like the Avs to prevail. Colorado in 5 6.

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For more fantasy hockey talk, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 19 - 19:03 DET vs CBJ
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Mar 19 - 19:03 NYI vs CAR
Mar 19 - 20:03 NSH vs S.J
Mar 19 - 20:03 STL vs COL
Mar 19 - 21:03 EDM vs MTL
Mar 19 - 22:03 VGK vs T.B
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Mar 19 - 22:03 VAN vs BUF
Mar 19 - 22:03 ANA vs MIN

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