Ramblings – Goalies: who’s going where, top RFA signing sheet candidates, and more of your questions (Oct 01)

Dobber

2020-10-01

I relaunched DobberProspects.com on Friday! Now go on and enjoy a cleaner, slicker site in time for the upcoming 2020 NHL Entry Draft. Still a few tweaks to go, and a couple of cool widgets I want to ad, but much of it is done. And please turn off your ad blocker. Any popup issues I may have had in the past are either gone, or easily squashed if any return. The player pages are pretty sweet (see Nick Robertson here), and we'll have the team pages looking just as sweet very soon.

The Fantasy Prospects Report was re-released on Tuesday. Updates, new profiles, the Mock Draft – it's all there, check it out!

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So the offseason is always a bit of a chore trying to come up with good fantasy content for the Ramblings, but at least we have a few days to prepare. I'm always jotting down notes, I have sources I check for topics, and each week I have something nice for you. But Cliffy had a last minute issue crop up and I was asked to pinch-hit late Wednesday, no preparation. As usual, I turn to you for help. Over to you, Twitter!

To land anyone of substance it's going to be very costly. I love Oliver Ekman-Larsson as much as the next guy, but the price I've heard for him makes me shudder. But if they make the deal happen, then OEL and the rest of the team benefit huge. But I tend to believe that these deals have better odds of not happening than happening. So if they don't land OEL and they can't sign a Torey Krug or an Alex Pietrangelo, then I hope they don't 'settle' for someone worse like a Justin Schultz or Sami Vatanen (who I respect, but gets hurt so much he'd be useless in helping a team like the Oilers). External help, to me, is limited to those first three names I noted. After that, just look internally. Ethan Bear was awesome last year. Darnell Nurse is awesome every time Klefbom is on the shelf! Is Evan Bouchard ready to step into that No.4 or No.5 slot? I think he is. Most likely scenario to me is Nurse and Bear adding 10 or 15 points each to their numbers from last year, Bouchard sliding in and managing 25 or 30 points, and the Oilers adding a steady-eddie via free agency such as a Justin Braun or Brenden Dillon.

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The aging vets! Well, tops is obviously the youngster in the group Brayden Holtby. I'm not overly confident in how strong his results will be on a new team, but more confident then I am with the other candidates here. Wherever he signs, he's going to get the Bobrovsky treatment (given start after start no matter how poorly he performs). And I tend to put my money on the goalie who gets the most opportunity.

Fleury right now is the starter for Vegas. That makes him No.2 on this list. If he gets traded, as is speculated (and maybe that's what Vegas is waiting for before announcing a Robin Lehner signing), I feel that he is the next best option to put forth a good year. Third on my list here is Corey Crawford. He had a fantastic playoffs and was also very good once Chicago traded away Lehner. Fourth is Henrik Lundqvist, but I don't have a whole lot of faith in how well he can perform based on the declining stats.

I wouldn't recommend Craig Anderson or Jimmy Howard in any fantasy league.

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They are my favorites. They've been a Top 3 Cup contender for several years and now they've done it. To me, they have the best odds to win the Cup next year.

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Very bullish. He is a definite 'buy'. I have a lot of confidence in his upside and what he will do in the year ahead.

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I don't think so. And those who come to NHL training camps get an edge.

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Despite the injury issues and declining stats, Matt Murray is still young enough that I have some confidence in a rebound. Crawford may slightly outperform Murray in the coming season, but giving this a three-year outlook I much prefer Murray.

Mikael Backlund – Steady production for seven consecutive years, and I think he's good to keep rolling at that steady pace for two more seasons. He's clicking well with Matt Tkachuk and Andrew Mangiapane.

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I don't think they are far apart at all when it comes to fantasy value, wait time and upside. If you're torn, and you're fine with either one, see if you can trade down a slot or two and pick whoever is left.

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This is the biggest story. I have never seen this kind of market for starting goalies. Holtby, Lehner, Jacob Markstrom, Thomas Greiss and Cam Talbot are each legitimate options. Markstrom, to me, is the top guy followed closely by Lehner. As far as the best deal – I like Talbot. I think a team will get him cheap and I think he'll give that team two surprisingly good years. And besides those five options, there is Crawford, Mike Smith and Lundqvist, and a couple of teams may feel either could be a starter for them. And then besides those seven options, there is the rumored trades of Fleury, Ben Bishop, Frederik Andersen and Petr Mrazek! That makes 12 different goalies who could be a starter or a 1A/1B split starter on a new team!

I think we'll end up with seven to nine teams with a new starting goalie for next year. To speculate on which goalie goes where would be throwing darts. Detroit needs a stopgap if they draft Askarov, and they need a long-term signing if they do. They are the best fit for Markstrom or Lehner. Buffalo is the other best fit for one of those two. Vegas reportedly has Lehner signed, though. Here's my darts:

Detroit – Markstrom

Vegas – Lehner

Buffalo – Holtby

Colorado – Fleury

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Edmonton – Greiss

Calgary – Bishop

Ottawa – Talbot

I gave it a shot. Let's see if I can nail three of these. What do you think?

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Absolutely. I can see maybe 20% of their shifts together, especially in the second half. But those two will form an elite line for years to come.

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I think he's a 65-point player. I do get your frustration. I think he gets back there soon, and will be well into the 70s in about three years.

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No, I'm still a skeptic on offer sheets. To me, the top candidates are probably defensemen. I'd look at Ryan Pulock, Anthony DeAngelo, and Mikhail Sergachev.

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Only Alexis Lafreniere.

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I think Petro, Dunn and Parayko could all go to a new team and it still won't make Justin Faulk become a legit fantasy hockey player again. I think he's a one-hit wonder. Sorry Faulk owners.

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Laine, Wheeler and Fiala. If it was points-only I would say Bjorkstrand instead of Laine. But the goal-heavy, shot-heavy categories make Laine a no-brainer.

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Sergei Bobrovsky – I think he'll bounce back. Confidence: 80%.

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My confidence in Andreas Athanasiou is on life support. He could bounce back, but my confidence in that is 5%.

Alex Nedeljkovic has to clear waivers and is on a one-way contract. But the Hurricanes have two goalies already and with so many goalies available I can see Ned clearing waivers. I don't think he'll be the backup this year.

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See you next Monday.

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