Ramblings: Stamkos Injury Revealed, Ekman-Larsson on the Block (Oct 2)

Ian Gooding

2020-10-02

Now that the Tampa Bay Lightning have won the Stanley Cup and completed not-so-socially-distanced celebrations back home, we've learned more about what ailed Steven Stamkos throughout the playoffs. According to GM Julien BriseBois, Stamkos underwent sports hernia surgery before the season pause. BriseBois stated that Stamkos' rehab resulted in a "compensation" injury while he was preparing to participate in the return to play.

In spite of the injury, BriseBois said he expects Stamkos to be ready for the 2020-21 season (whenever that will start). Even if that is true, I'm still drafting Stamkos at a slight injury discount after he missed 13 regular-season games and almost all of the postseason. It wouldn't be a major injury discount, as Stamkos did play 82 and 78 games over the previous two seasons (although just 17 games in the season before, 2016-17). Stamkos has averaged between 1.1 and 1.2 points per game over each of the last four seasons, so don't forget the significant upside that is still there. You can see where I have Stamkos ranked in the Roto Rankings Top 100 (although I'm thinking of moving him down a little bit).

It's a real credit to the depth of the Lightning that they were able to win the Stanley Cup in spite of one of their top scorers playing just under three minutes in the entire postseason. Even with potential offseason losses, the Lightning will be just fine going forward.  

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If you followed the playoffs closely, you'll know how much Tyler Seguin struggled (just two goals and 13 points in 26 games). Although the Stars haven't confirmed this, it is believed that he had been suffering from multiple injuries himself. We'll have to wait and see what those injuries are, but fantasy owners will need to know whether those injury issues will carry over into the 2020-21 season.

I don't usually combine regular-season and playoff stats. However, Seguin's goal-scoring troubles extend well back into the regular season. Over his last 30 regular-season games, Seguin scored just six goals to go with 19 points. Add the regular season to the postseason and it's eight goals in his last 56 combined games. The Stars as a team weren't scoring much during that stretch anyway, which would have affected his numbers regardless. Yet I also wonder if the injury issues also affected him then.  

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The latest TSN Trade Bait board was released on Thursday, with Oliver Ekman-Larsson appearing as the new #1. Further reports have suggested that Boston and Vancouver are two teams (the only two teams?) on OEL's trade list. Edmonton has also reportedly expressed interest, although it sounds like they are not on his list. By entering a quick Twitter search, you can find an infinite number of trade proposals involving these various teams. Or just make up your own.

Since Ekman-Larsson's contract has a $8.25 million cap hit for seven more seasons (he will be 36 years old when it ends), any acquiring team has to be careful not to overpay, perhaps even requesting that the Coyotes retain money. There are also rumblings that OEL isn't as much of a fit in Rick Tocchet's system as he was with Dave Tippett. For those reasons, Arizona doesn't appear to be in a position of strength trying to trade OEL, as it's apparent that they are trying to unload salary and rebuild. Not surprisingly, Darcy Kuemper (#21) and Phil Kessel (#40) are other Coyotes veterans listed on the Trade Bait board.

Fantasy owners might be drafting Ekman-Larsson out of habit, since he's been the main minute-munching power-play d-man in Arizona for so long. He is better served as a third or fourth defenseman in 12-team fantasy leagues, as he has only reached 50 points once in his career and reached 40 points in two of the last four seasons. At least there's upside in his ability to remain relatively healthy throughout his career (only eight games missed over the last four seasons).

Ekman-Larsson has also been known for his peripherals. There's the obvious power-play value, which took a major hit in 2019-20 (just 7 PPP). He's also known for his shot totals. Over the last six seasons, only six defensemen have taken more shots than he has (average of about 190 shots per season). OEL also holds in own in hits, averaging two hits per game over the past three seasons.

Maybe to preview a potential Fantasy Take, what would Ekman-Larsson's value look like if he is traded to Boston or Vancouver? Since Torey Krug is probably leaving the Bruins, Ekman-Larsson's value would be upgraded significantly with a trade to Boston. Simply put, the Bruins have a better offense and a better power play than the Coyotes. On the other hand, his fantasy value could take a hit in Vancouver. Quinn Hughes will be a first-unit power-play fixture there for years, so there's a strong possibility Ekman-Larsson would have to take on a second-unit power-play role there. I could see him logging a similar number of even-strength minutes with the Canucks, which would help many counting stats.

If Ekman-Larsson stays in Arizona, then his value may depreciate even further. I say this because the Coyotes appear headed for a rebuild with a younger roster, which doesn't help the veterans that remain. Plus/minus (yeah, I know some of you hate it) could pull his value down even further (in leagues that count it, anyway). OEL has been below zero in that category for seven consecutive seasons.

It should go without saying that Ekman-Larsson is not a player you should target in a salary cap league, as he simply does not provide enough production for his cap hit. Only four defensemen (Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty, Roman Josi, P.K. Subban) have a higher cap hit than Ekman-Larsson. In fact, OEL isn't even listed on the latest Top 200 Cap League Skater Rankings. Maybe he's worth owning if your salary cap team is in a full-on rebuild and your league has a cap floor.

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I just want to take a moment to reflect on the whole bubble hockey experience. Although the idea was met with a lot of skepticism when it was first introduced, it turned out to be a major success. The fears that the hockey community had about the season having to be cancelled because of an outbreak did not come true. In fact, the bubble was so tight that players compared the facility to a "prison camp." The thing was, in order for the play-in to be successful, it couldn't be like normal life. Kudos to everyone who in at least some small way was able to contribute to the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2020.

After the draft and the bulk of free agent signings take place, we don't really know what's going to happen with the 2020-21 season. I decided to make a list of questions that I have about what the season will look like.

  • Will there be a season? (Probably, but we know nothing is outside the realm of possibilities, especially if the "second wave" of COVID-19 is worse than the first.)
  • When will the season start?
  • Will part or all of the season be played in a bubble? (Probably not all.)
  • Because of the Canada/US border situation, will there be a Canadian division?
  • If there is no Canadian division, will Canadian teams be forced to relocate to the US (similar to MLB/MLS)?
  • Will the season be a full 82 games?
  • If the season isn't 82 games, how long will it be?
  • Will the season feature a more condensed schedule to force a faster completion?
  • What testing and protocols will be required to keep everyone safe?
  • Will fans be allowed into buildings in some capacity (ie. limited number with social distancing)?
  • Will there be any significant rule changes that will ensure the season is played successfully?
  • Will any significant players decide to opt out?
  • With ticket sales either low or nonexistent, how many teams will be able to spend to the cap?
  • What sort of financial issues will teams have going forward?
  • Can the Stanley Cup be handed out before the start of the 2021 Summer Olympics? (This matters because NBC covers both, and Olympic coverage would take precedence.)
  • With shifting of the 2020-21 schedule possibly impacting the 2021-22 season as well, will NHL players be able to participate in the 2022 Winter Olympics?

These are just the questions that have popped into my mind. You may have more to add.

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The NHL Entry Draft is coming up in less than a week. Fortunately, you can find tons of draft coverage on Dobber Sports. If you bought the Fantasy Prospects Report, it was recently updated with Cam Robinson's Mock Draft. I like the Prospect Report's Top 10 lists, which provide top 10s for a fantasy draft, offensive defensemen, centers and wingers in fantasy, and more. As well, I'll probably refer to Cam and Jokke's Fantasy Hockey Top 107 as I participate in my keeper league's entry draft. Do you want to get to know the players that you're considering drafting? Check out the individual player profiles.

If you don't plan to purchase the Fantasy Prospects Report, the Dobber Prospects Scouting Team has its own 2020 Draft Rankings, a collaboration from over a dozen Dobber Prospects writers. (Great work on the graphics too.)

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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

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