Wild West: Top 20 – NHL Unrestricted Free Agents

Grant Campbell

2020-10-05

Final Playoff Western Leaders

Goals – 13 – Joe Pavelski – Dallas

Assists – 20 – Miro Heiskanen – Dallas

Points – 26 – Miro Heiskanen – Dallas

PPP – 10 – Elias Pettersson – Vancouver

Shots on Goal – 80 – Shea Theodore – Vegas

PIM – 46 – Antoine Roussel – Vancouver

Best plus/minus – plus 13 – Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado

Worst plus/minus – minus 12 – Esa Lindell – Dallas

Hits – 117 – Jamie Oleksiak – Dallas

Blocked shots – 69 – Esa Lindell – Dallas

Best FO% (min 200 draws) – 62.7% – Ryan O'Reilly – St. Louis

Worst FO% (min 200 draws) – 42.9% – William Karlsson – Vegas

Giveaways – 58 – Miro Heiskanen – Dallas

Takeaways – 21 – Miro Heiskanen – Dallas, Esa Lindell – Dallas

Drawn Penalties – 13 – Elias Pettersson – Vancouver, Troy Stecher

Draisaitl Hat Tricks – 1 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Edmonton, Mikko Rantanen – Colorado, Cale Makar – Colorado, Corey Perry – Dallas, J.T. Miller – Vancouver, Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado

Goalie wins – 14 – Anton Khudobin – Dallas

Save percentage (min 10 starts) – 92.4 – Cam Talbot – Calgary

Quality starts – 12 – Anton Khudobin – Dallas

Looking at unrestricted free agents I'm going to count down the top 20 in my opinion (Robin Lehner was on the list but re-signed with Vegas for five years at $5 million AAV:

20) Erik Haula – At 29 years old, Haula has played 63 games over the past two seasons, battling injuries while posting 14 goals and 17 assists. This has followed his career year of 29 goals and 26 assists with Vegas in 2017-18. Is he still worth the risk of a two or three-year contract? Probably not at the dollar amount he might be expecting, so he might need to prove himself on a one-year deal and put up a 20-goal year which he is perfectly capable of, if healthy.

19) Vladislav Namestnikov – Namestnikov is only 27-years old but has been on four different teams since being dealt from Tampa Bay in 2017-18. He has career highs of 22 goals and 26 assists but is a risky add as any team that signs him for more than a year or two will want a more complete game from him unless he can reach that 20-goal plateau consistently. He's one of many forwards in the NHL who are trapped in the bodies of top-four players but are playing bottom-six roles and become exposed from time to time with their defensive responsibilities. 

18) Alex Galchenyuk – As a 26-year old unrestricted free agent, Galchenyuk should be top-five on this list, but as I mentioned with Namestnikov and others, he just isn't good enough in the other areas of the game unless he is producing much more than his past two seasons. He has been bounced around in his role and with three different teams in the past two seasons, so a new start and a set role might get him back close to what he was when he was 20 to 22. 

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17) T.J. Brodie – He is 30-years old and had a big health scare in November 2019, so perhaps teams will be hesitant to sign him. He came back healthy and played over 20 minutes per game, but had his lowest points per game since 2012-13 at 0.30. He is still capable of providing top-four minutes and 25-35 points per season, but he might have to sign a shorter team deal. 

16) Cam Talbot – He had a bounce-back season in Calgary while splitting the duties with Mike Smith in the regular season and took over in the playoffs where he led the Western Conference in save percentage (for those above 10 games) at 92.4. His days of playing 50 plus games are probably done, but at 33 years of age, he is still capable of providing a team with a goalie that can play 30-40 games at a high enough level that a two or three-year deal should be in the offering. 

15) Braden Holtby – Holtby is not negotiating from a position of strength after having his worst season in the league after 10 seasons. His goals saved above average (GSAA) was a negative 14.04 and even though Ilya Samsonov was only slightly better in net, it is clear that each of them is trending in opposite directions. Holtby might have to sign a shorter-term deal with a team that has struggled in the net like Edmonton, Ottawa or even Colorado and get back to what he was in the playoffs of 2017-18. 

14) Chris Tanev – Most might consider this being pretty high for Tanev on my list, but having watched him for several years, game-in game-out, he is a very solid player in his own end that any NHL team would welcome on their roster. He dressed in every game this season, which was a miracle for a player like Tanev who willingly puts his body on the line every game and had been injured every season in the NHL. Teams win with guys like Tanev in the lineup and I wouldn't be surprised if he signs a four or five-year deal with a good team. 

13)  Anton Khudobin – He had a fantastic playoff for Dallas and got them to game six of the Stanley Cup finals at the age of 34. As a career backup goalie, he has never played more than 41 games in a regular season and probably will be limited to a 1B or backup role again. The strength for his negotiations is that he is perhaps the best available goalie looking to fill that role in Dallas or any other team interested in his services. 

12) Erik Gustafsson – With a 60-point season in 2018-19, Gustafsson set notice to the league that he was a very capable offensive defenceman that could compensate for his deficiencies at the other end of the rink. This season saw that put to the test as his offence dried up a little with 29 points in 66 games and only three assists in 10 playoff games. To be an effective power play quarterback and play top-four minutes, he needs to produce. He is a gamble for any team looking for an offensive spark from the back end and he might have to sign a shorter-term contract to prove himself again. 

11) Kevin Shattenkirk – A player with the same issues as Gustafsson above, but the difference is that Shattenkirk just won the Stanley Cup in Tampa Bay and had a very good playoff with 13 points in 25 games. Shattenkirk is now 31 years old and will be looking for a multi-year deal somewhere between his bought-out deal at $6.65 million AAV and the one-year deal at $1.75 million he had signed in Tampa Bay. Interestingly if you look at his past four playoffs he totals 38 points in 64 games, which is good for 0.59 points per game. 

10) Craig Smith – In a full season, Smith would have joined the 20-goal club for the 6th time in his nine-year career. He seems like a player that should do more than he does each year, but he is still a valuable 2nd or 3rd line winger that is very good defensively. Anything more than a three or four year deal for him will be extremely risky as he could be a 4th liner in a heartbeat if his power-play time dropped off. 

9) Mikael Granlund – I'm sure there is regret in Nashville for sending Kevin Fiala to Minnesota for Granlund as he was not the player that the Predators were hoping to get in return. Having said that, Granlund is still only 28 years old and even though his points per game sunk to a career-low of 0.48, there is optimism that he could at least bring his game back to the 50-55 point level on a different team. There might not be a long-term deal on the table but I'm sure there will be many offers for his services. 

8) Tyler Toffoli – I'm not as enamored with Toffoli's game as a lot of people in Vancouver seemed to be after he had 10 points in 10 games as a Canuck. He's not the greatest skater, but he has great puck skills and has a knack for being open and for that he needs to play with very good players to be his most effective. He shoots a lot, but not always from great spots on the ice so his shot totals are always going to be a little elevated and he will hover around 8-12 in shooting percentage. He's a very good 20-25 goal scorer, but I just don't understand any team giving him a four or five-year deal at more than $5 million AAV. 

7) Tyson Barrie – Barrie is another unrestricted free-agent offensive-minded defenceman that hits the market this year. He was much maligned in his one year in Toronto, and some of that can be attributed to his play and the other may be to Nazem Kadri being dealt to acquire him. He still managed 39 points in 70 games after a very slow start of six points in his first 22 games. Much like Gustafsson, Shattenkirk and even Torey Krug, his game is a little one-dimensional and is exposed when he's not productive. He will sign a long-term deal with someone and put up 40-50 points for a few more seasons at least. 

6) Evgeni Dadonov – Maybe because of the Florida market he played in or because he came back to the NHL at the age of 29, Dadonov has been under my radar for most of his career. He quietly had 65 and 70 point seasons before dipping down to 25 goals and 47 points in 69 games this season. He has been a very consistent shooter in the NHL in all three seasons since coming back ranging from 14.4 to 15.0 shooting percentage. He is very good on the power play so will be a welcome addition to any team looking for help in that regard. 

5) Mike Hoffman – Hoffman will bring 25-35 goals and 50-60 points to any team he might sign with for the next few seasons. 

He won't bring a 200-foot game, physicality or penalty killing to any lineup. At 30 years of age, he has been given a lot of power-play time in Florida the past two seasons that he might not find elsewhere and his 28 power-play goals (including 17 in 2018-19) are a testament to that. 

4) Jacob Markstrom – Markstrom in my opinion is head and shoulders the best goalie available as a free agent in terms of age, role and ability. Even though he is 30 years old, his game is elevating to a higher level each season and he is currently playing his best hockey. He was very good in his first taste of the playoffs and had 11 quality starts in 14 games. He will be looking for a five or six-year contract north of $7 million AAV and that is a little steep for most teams. 

3) Torey Krug – The best of the purely offensive defencemen available as UFAs this season is Krug in my opinion. He has never had fewer than 39 points in seven seasons in the NHL and is one of the NHL's best power-play quarterbacks, with 24 or more power-play points in each of the past four seasons. The fear is that he was quite sheltered in Boston and he was surrounded with great power-play talent. Will that extend to another team? I get excited when I think about a player like Krug on the power play with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. It could happen!

2) Alex Pietrangelo – There was a little concern in 2018-19 that Pietrangelo (who was battling an arm injury) might be fading as a dominant defenceman. We all know what he and the Blues did in the playoffs that year, proving people wrong and he followed that up with a solid 52 point season this year. He is not as physical a player as say a Shea Weber, so at 30-years old he should be able to play at his current level for three or four more years. Will a team be willing to pay Pietrangelo over $9 million AAV for seven years for that length of time? For sure. Will it be a wise move? Of course not. 

1) Taylor Hall – From a purely potential standpoint, I think Hall is the most intriguing free agent available this year. He is only three years removed from having 39 goals and 93 points in 2017-18 and has battled injury and being in the offensively deprived desert of Arizona. Depending on what Hall is looking for at 28-years old, he might be willing to sign for a one or two year contract and try to win now and get paid later with a long-term contract or hope for one now. If the latter is the case he won't be negotiating at the top of his pay range, as two years ago he would have been asking for $10 million AAV plus. 

If you have any comments or suggestions, please let me know below and/or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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