Following the one-year trial-and-error of Tyson Barrie on the right side, Toronto ended up more or less where they were a year ago. They shored up their blue line for the next few years by signing T.J. Brodie to a four-year deal worth $5M. It also carries a no-move clause. Let's get into it.

What the Leafs get

Brodie has spent his entire career in Calgary and that's where we'll start, because it's very much worth pointing out his numbers with and without Mark Giordano as his defence-mate. Giordano is a true Norris-level defenceman and can make people look good. Here are Calgary's shot/goal/expected goal rates with Giordano+Brodie on the ice over the last three years, and them on the ice without each other (from Natural Stat Trick):

The numbers for the three years prior to that are similar, if lower. All this is to say that Brodie did much worse away from Giordano than Giordano did away from Brodie.

Of course, who Brodie played with (guys like Michael Stone) won't help but I just want to illustrate that we’re not sure he can carry a pair. He probably needs help, and he'll play with one of Jake Muzzin or Morgan Rielly, so he'll get help.

With that out of the way, Brodie does a lot of things we covet from our defencemen. He's good with controlled exits/entries and is good at finding teammates in the offensive zone:

It is easier to see why he can't truly carry a pair. The numbers are all good, but none are elite. But 'good' is a relative term when it comes to fantasy hockey. A 'good' transition defenceman without top PP minutes in places like Arizona or Buffalo would struggle for 30 points. A 'good' transition defenceman in a lineup like Toronto's, even playing secondary PP minutes, puts 40 points within range. In fact, from 2014-2019,  Brodie averaged 40 points a season despite never having more than 12 PPPs in any of those five seasons, and fewer than 10 in three of them. So, yes, even on the second PP unit, Brodie is a threat for 40 points in an offence like Toronto's.

His value will vary a lot by league, though. He'll certainly play in points-only leagues, but he doesn't hit (has 30 or fewer in six straight seasons), he doesn't shoot (has never reached 140 shots), and his single-season high in PIMs is 36. He can put up a respectable 7-9 goals with nearly 40 points and about 10 PPPs, but that's about all he'll bring.

This is a major upgrade for the Leafs on the right side with a solid top-4, dual-threat blue liner, and Brodie will have a good defence partner regardless if it's the top pair or second pair. He should get back to his usual 30 points with 40 well within reach. If they decide to go 2D on the second PP unit, Muzzin should keep those minutes. If they go to 4F-1D, I think Muzzin gets booted off and is replaced by Brodie.

It's now Rasmus Andersson time in Calgary. I would not be shocked at top pair, top PP minutes for him next year. At the least, I think he sometimes gets PP duties over Giordano at times. I expect a breakout year from Andersson.

Who this helps

Rasmus Andersson

Morgan Rielly

T.J. Brodie

Who this hurts

Timothy Liljegren

Jake Muzzin (if removed from PP, if not, status quo)