Ramblings: Leivo Signs with Flames, Opportunity for Virtanen, Ranking Wingers (Oct 25)

Ian Gooding

2020-10-25

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During this offseason, there hasn't been a team that has added another team's players the way the Flames have added former Canucks players. First Jacob Markstrom, then Chris Tanev, and how could I forget Louis Domingue? Add Josh Leivo to that list of ex-Canucks migrating over the Rocky Mountains, as he has signed a one-year contract with Calgary for $875,000. Leivo had been sidelined since December with a fractured kneecap, having missed both the rest of the regular season and the postseason. Leivo scored 19 points (7g-12a) in 36 games in 2018-19, so he was on a 40+ point pace.

Fantasy Take: Flames Hit Their Mark, Sign Jacob Markstrom

Despite Leivo's recent injury history, this is a low-risk gamble for the Flames. When healthy last season, Leivo was most frequently used on the Canucks' second line with Bo Horvat and Tanner Pearson.  He'll probably slot in as a third or fourth liner for the Flames and may even push for the second line. I liked what I saw from Andrew Mangiapane on the Flames' second line last season, but if healthy and consistent, Leivo could push for that role.

The fact that the Canucks didn't re-sign Tyler Toffoli or Leivo means that it looks like they are all-in on Jake Virtanen playing in the top 6 in 2020-21. This probably wasn't what the Canucks had planned, however. Virtanen started the postseason as a healthy scratch and finished the postseason with just three points in 16 games. Because Virtanen hasn't seemed like a favorite of Travis Green (more because of his play without the puck), it looked like his days in Vancouver were numbered.

Fantasy Take: Holy Moley, Montreal Signs Toffoli

Having just said that about Virtanen, he had been on pace for 20 goals and 40+ points when the season came to a halt. He had been used anywhere from the first to the fourth line during the season, so there is upside for more with increased time in the top 6. Because the Canucks couldn't sign anyone to replace Toffoli, Virtanen is being handed a golden opportunity that he probably didn't expect. That opportunity could even include top-line time with Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller, since Virtanen as the speed to keep up. Yes, that's sleeper potential.

If Shotgun Jake can't take advantage of the situation, then don't be surprised if the Canucks decide to walk away when his two-year contract expires, even though he'll still be an RFA (arbitration-eligible). If he does, then hockey fans across the province of British Columbia will be shotgunning plenty of beers once play resumes.

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I'll take this opportunity to respond to a recent comment wondering why Kyle Connor and Mark Stone were ranked below Max Pacioretty and Johnny Gaudreau in the Top 100 Roto Rankings. This comment was likely based on the results of the 2019-20 season, which was the strongest of Connor's career and weakest over Gaudreau's past three seasons.

Let's compare roto categories for each player over the last three seasons. Games played, points, and points per game are not roto categories by themselves, but they are used to illustrate comparisons.

NameRoto RankingGPGAPTSPTS/GPPPSOG+/-Hits
MAX PACIORETTY4320171721430.7142710-11327
JOHNNY GAUDREAU44232781632411.04696811029
KYLE CONNOR47229103931960.8647658545
MARK STONE48200741241980.994949941181

Let's start with Gaudreau. If you think Gaudreau's #44 is too high for these rankings, keep in mind that he's currently ranked #12 in Dobber's Top 300 Skaters. Having said that, Gaudreau is stronger in single-season leagues than in multicategory leagues, which I'll get into in a moment. But as I've said before, the scoring categories in roto leagues are the toughest to replace on the waiver wire and should carry the most weight.

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Even though Johnny Hockey holds his own in scoring categories, don't draft him too early in a bangers league. He averages about 10 hits per season, including just one in all of 2019-20. This could explain why he has a reputation for disappearing in the playoffs, where physical teams and players gain an advantage. Not surprisingly, Gaudreau has a low penalty minutes total as well. Yet among this group, Gaudreau is a step above the others in pure scoring. Unless he regresses further in 2020-21, I can't buy the argument that he should be ranked below the others in this group. I had already purposely moved him down these rankings because of his underwhelming 2019-20 season and the bangers categories.

As for Pacioretty, he's ranked right above Gaudreau at #43. I recently saw a contrasting comment that he was not ranked high enough based on the kind of 2019-20 season that he had. Maybe that means I have him ranked right about where he should be.

I'll admit there's a recency effect with Pacioretty's ranking. After so-so 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons, Patches was a multicategory force in 2019-20. Not only was he back to nearly a point per game, but he was also third in the NHL with 307 shots and could have reached 100 hits for the third consecutive season had the season not ended early. He's easily the best in this group in hits and shots, which makes up for his lack of points compared to the others over the past three seasons. His advanced age might bring him down a notch with the rest of the group in keeper leagues, but these roto rankings are single-season only. On a loaded Vegas roster, I don't see a huge dropoff from 2019-20, but maybe a minor one. 

There's a real debate to be had as to which of teammates Stone or Pacioretty is a better roto option. I remember hemming and hawing between these two in a playoff pool, and ultimately, I went with Stone. It was a pure scoring league, which made sense if you consider points per game, even in 2019-20 (Stone 0.97 PTS/GP, Pacioretty 0.93 PTS/GP). Dobber has Stone ranked #34 in his top 300 skaters, while Pacioretty is down to #90. That seems fair in keeper rankings, since the 31-year-old Patches likely has fewer seasons left than the others in the group.

At only 23 years old, Connor is already the best goals option in this group. Not only that, but he was also the only player in the group to exceed a point per game last season, finishing tied for sixth in goals (38), tenth in shots (239), and 15th in total points (73). There's an argument that he should be ranked above the rest because his best days might be ahead of him. He's about to hit his fourth full season, so I'm okay with giving him a slight bump here. He may not have the name value of the other players or the other names around him in the rankings, but he looks like he'll deliver top-50 value in 2020-21.

As a side note, it was interesting to find that all four of these players ranged between 17-19 power-play points in 2019-20.

In the end, I could shuffle these players in a different order. However, I believe they are rightfully ranked close to each other, no matter what the order. But if you think they should be much farther apart, let me know and explain why.

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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

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