Ramblings: Sam Reinhart, remaining UFAs, slow drafts, defensemen scoring, and more (Oct. 26)

Alexander MacLean

2020-10-26

I have good news and bad news for you. The good news is that Dobber is currently working hard on the 15th annual Fantasy Hockey Guide, and it will be available in just under a week! From then, it will be updated regularly until a few weeks after the season starts (which is sounding more and more like early January as a best-case scenario). To make sure you don’t miss out, preorder it here.

The bad news is that you're stuck with me covering the ramblings… wait, that's good news too! What an excellent way to start off Monday morning.

For those of you that don't know me, I write the Capped column every Thursday here at DobberHockey, and I'm a very active member over on the forums. You can also find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean where among other tidbits, I usually cover NHL signings and how they came in relative to projected value.

Grab your coffee, tea, or drink of choice and let's get rolling.

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We saw only saw one signing on Sunday, though it was a significant one. Sam Reinhart, one of the top RFAs from this year's crop put pen to paper on a one-year deal that takes him almost to the end of his restricted years. His new contracts sports a $5.2 million AAV, and ensures that next year he will either be able to take another one-year deal walking himself straight to unrestricted free agency, or sign a long-term deal that will have to be a lucrative one to buy up his UFA years.

Reinhart is the number one RW on the Sabres, and could see plenty of time with Jack Eichel and Taylor Hall at even strength. His career high is 65 points in the 2018-2019 season, and it looks like an easy ceiling for him to pace towards breaking in the upcoming campaign.

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There was one arbitration case over the weekend for Tyler Bertuzzi. This is the first one where a settlement wasn't reached before the case reaching the arbitrator, so in the next day or so we should see the results from the arbitrator.

The two sides don't seem all that far apart, which suggests that there was an issue with the term. Now that the case is going through an arbitrator it can only be for one or two years, and it will be between the numbers set by the player and the team. Even at the high point that Bertuzzi is asking for, he should be able to outplay the number and boost his value for his next contract.

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More than two weeks into free agent "frenzy" and there are still a few of the top skaters available. I took a look though what teams have both the roster space, cap space, and incentive to add a difference-maker to sort out what options some of the players below may have. For any of you that are unaware, I also put together my own salary projection model and will have each player's projected cap hit listed below as well.

Mike Hoffman (LW)

Projected Cap Hit: $7,039,647

Nashville has apparently been looking to add an impact forward for the second offseason in a row, and though they struck out with Taylor Hall, Hoffman appears to be the next best thing to help their stagnant powerplay. The Predators also have the incentive to add Hoffman being in their 'win-now' window, while also having the highest cap space of any of the teams that were in this summer's playoff bubble. Bringing in Hoffman might be the only way that Matt Duchene's stock could get a boost at this point, as those two would likely see heavy offensive minutes and powerplay time together.

Mikael Granlund (C/RW)

Projected Cap Hit: $4,055,741

It has been a while since Mikael Granlund played center, but his versatility across the lineup would be extremely attractive for two teams in particular. The Boston Bruins are going to be without wingers David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand to open the season, while centers David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron have been frequently injured over the last few seasons. Granlund could fill in as needed up and down the lineup for them and add to their already formidable offence.

On the other hand, maybe what Granlund needs is a little bit of stability. The New York Rangers should really want to upgrade on Ryan Strome as their number two centre, and a revitalized Granlund would be just what the doctor ordered. That would lengthen out the lineup for the Rangers, and assuming they realize early in the season that they need to stop playing Jack Johnson, it could be the piece that pushes them into the playoff picture. A short-term deal would likely be best for both parties.

Anthony Duclair (LW)

Projected Cap Hit: $3,038,763

Duclair is arguably the second-best scorer still available in free agency (after Hoffman), and at this point he should cost half of what Hoffman will. Every team would love to add another scoring winger, but few can make it all fit. The San Jose Sharks are the team that seems to make the most sense as they could guarantee Duclair a spot in their top-six group and fit him in at around $3 million. This would push Ryan Donato to the third line and mean that Duclair could line up with bounce-back candidates Tomas Hertl and Timo Meier. What a dynamite line that could be.

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Sami Vatanen (RD)

Projected Cap Hit: $3,347,992

It is shocking that a right-handed defenseman of Vatanen's caliber hasn't been snatched up yet. However, when you look around the league, there are few teams that can afford him and even fewer that have space in their depth chart to fit him in. LA and NJ are the only two landing spots that make any sense between cap and roster space. A return to New Jersey should not be out of the question unless GM Tom Fitzgerald has ruled Vatanen out already due to his size. Fitzgerald stated when he joined the team in July that he wanted to add size and puck moving ability to their defence core. Sticking to that to the point of missing out on Vatanen would be a mistake.

The other option is LA, who otherwise would be running out rookie Mikey Andersen on the third pair. LA could also use Vatanen as their main powerplay quarterback, which would lift the value of everyone else on that powerplay unit. If neither of those two teams are sniffing around on Vatanen, I understand him waiting until training camp when he could work out under a PTO and wait for a contract offer as an injury fill-in.

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With the KHL season underway, some NHL players are already on the ice. Don't be afraid to jump on Mikko Lehtonen after all of the first powerplay options are gone in your fantasy pools. He should see frequent minutes with the Leafs' second unit, and could even take over first unit duties if the Leafs want to save Morgan Rielly for tougher minutes.

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With all of the time we are likely to have between now and the start of the season, for those of you getting impatient to start your fantasy drafts, consider doing a slow draft via some sort of Google Doc, forum, or other. Ian Gooding covered some thoughts in the October 24th Ramblings, where he mentioned the Keeping Karlsson slow drafts:

I am taking part in the test run for the Keeping Karlsson leagues where we are doing a slow auction draft. Every day by 2pm EST each of the 10 of us nominate a player. By midnight we then have to submit our silent bids on this set of 10 players, setting our bid prices, bid groups, and max number of acquisitions for the day. This setup is for a 10-team league, points only, with 10 forwards and four defencemen. If anyone wants further details I can expand on it in the comments.

My thinking is that defensemen were going to be a little tougher to fill than forwards, so I'm bidding a little heavier there to start. Outside the top 100 forwards there are a lot more upside options than outside of the top 40 defencemen. My first nominee was Norris-winner Roman Josi, who I bid about nine percent of my budget on. It seemed like a lot of the other participants agreed with me as six out of 10 of the nominees to start were defencemen. We can keep you posted on the results and comments at the end.

Feel free to get creative with your league and do something different! If there was a year to experiment, this year is the one to do it as it is likely to be a shortened season. I'm going to push for a slow draft or two in some of my leagues. If anyone else has come up with some fun tweaks to their league setup, let us all know!

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Speaking of Josi, I have one other thought before I sign off. Looking at defensemen production for the upcoming season, who is the odds-on favorite to put up the most points. Is it one of the Calder options from last year in Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes? Does Rasmus Dahlin erupt to a point per game or more? Are John Carlson and Roman Josi able to hold off the field for one more year? Do we see a wildcard with a season where it all comes together, because would Zach Werenski, Anthony DeAngelo, or Shea Theodore hitting a new level really surprise anyone?

I'm biased towards Josi as my favourite player, but I think Dahlin may be worth laying a bet on at the beginning of the year to set the pace for the new season. There are lots of excellent options on defence, but the talent does drop off after the top 20 or 30 though.

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I hope you enjoyed the ramblings, and Dobber should be back for you next week.

In the meantime, stay safe. Cheers!  

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