Wild West: Western Conference Roster Changes Part 3
Grant Campbell
2020-10-26
With only a handful of prominent free agents still on the market (Mikael Granlund, Mike Hoffman, Alex Galchenyuk, Travis Hamonic and perhaps Anthony Duclair), here are the notable additions and subtractions from each roster in the Western Conference (not including 2020 draft picks). This week we will look at the last five teams in the West in alphabetical order (the purist in me always wants to put St. Louis ahead of San Jose).
San Jose Sharks
Additions:
Patrick Marleau – Lose a 41-year old and gain a 41-year old must be what Doug Wilson is thinking here. Marleau will provide leadership and he still has some speed, but I'm not sure what offence he will still provide. He had seven goals and six assists in the last 49 games of last season. 15 goals and 30 points would be a huge campaign for him.
Matt Nieto – Nieto should slot in on the 3rd line and provide very good penalty killing and solid defensive play. His career-high of 15 goals will probably not be in danger of being broken. He is an upgrade on what the Sharks had from last season.
Ryan Donato – Donato has an opportunity in San Jose to play in the top six and get 13-15 minutes per game as opposed to the 10 minutes he had last season on his way to 14 goals and 23 points in 62 games with the Wild. The Sharks and their fans would be ecstatic if he could score 20 goals and he is perfectly capable of doing so. He had 13 goals in the last 44 games with the Wild, which is a 26-goal pace over 82 games.
Devan Dubnyk – Acquiring Dubnyk (-16.50 Goals Saved above average last year) is a bit of a gamble as he might not prove to be any better than Martin Jones (-37.88 GSAA over past two seasons) and the Sharks will be in the same position they have been for the past two seasons with below-average goaltending. Dubnyk had five seasons, before last with save percentages ranging from 91.3 to 92.9 and quality start percentages ranging from 47.8 to 63.1 which are both indicative of a top ten goaltender in the NHL. It is the last season that he will need to rebound from and he has done so after his 2013-14 season, but he was 27-years old then. At the end of the day, he should be an upgrade on Aaron Dell and could alleviate some pressure on Jones.
Subtractions:
Aaron Dell – Dell had a career-high 33 games last season and was a little better than Jones in the net but still below the league average (-2.84 GSAA), so I don't think his absence will be the reason if the Sharks struggle this season.
Joe Thornton – The face of the Sharks for 15 seasons will be sorely missed in the locker room, but his absence on the ice will be more than made up for by Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl. Noah Gregor and Dylan Gambrell will also battle for the third line center spot unless the Sharks look outside of the organization.
St. Louis Blues
Additions:
Torey Krug – From all reports, Doug Armstrong caught Alex Pietrangelo by surprise when he signed Krug to a seven-year contract at $6.5 million AAV. The signing saves the Blues about $2.3 to 3 million per season and they get one year younger with Krug, but they are giving up their team captain and a much better defender at even strength and short-handed. Krug will help the power-play marginally more than Pietrangelo and this factor along with the salary cap savings are the reasons they pulled the trigger. Krug won't have the same skill on the power play as in Boston but he should be able to get 22-28 power-play points in St. Louis each season and 50-60 points overall.
Kyle Clifford – The Blues have been looking for a player like Clifford since sending Robby Fabbri for Jacob De la Rose. Clifford brings a little more toughness, experience and defensive responsibility than De la Rose and perhaps a little more offence. Having said that, Clifford will have a great fantasy season if he reaches 10 goals and 20 points with 80 PIM and 130 hits.
Subtractions:
Jake Allen – I was curious how St. Louis was going to deal with their cap situation after Jordan Binnington faltered a little against the Canucks in the playoffs. Allen had a very good season with 24 games and an excellent 92.7 save percentage, along with 58.3 quality start percentage and 11.14 GSAA but the Blues elected to move him and his $4.2 million salary. Ville Husso has 143 regular-season games split between the AHL and the ECHL but no NHL experience. Moving Allen is a risk and a downgrade in the net.
Alex Pietrangelo – I feel like I'm repeating myself a lot, but moving on from Pietrangelo after trading for and extending Justin Faulk makes very little sense to me. Imagine if the Blues could have had both Pietrangelo and Krug in the lineup? I'm sure neither Krug nor Pietrangelo would have relished that situation but it would have improved the team. The Blues still have a good defence, just not a very good one anymore
Vancouver Canucks
Additions:
Braden Holtby – On paper, adding Holtby and losing Jacob Markstrom is the difference of about 25 goals last season according to GSAA. The hope in Vancouver is that goaltending coach Ian Clark can work with Holtby and get him back to his form from 2016-17. The likely scenario is that Holtby plays a little better, but also discovers that Vancouver gives up a lot of quality chances. This season could be a rough ride in Vancouver for him, but I'm sure the Vancouver fans and media will go easy on him.
Jayce Hawryluk – Hawryluk should compete for a spot on the Canucks 3rd or 4th line. He will provide speed and energy to any line he is on and has some skill. He reminds me a little of Tyler Motte and the Canucks can only hope that they have found another player like him. In 68 career games, Hawryluk has 10 goals and 12 assists with 166 hits (although this is mostly in Florida so perhaps remove half of these). The former 100-point player in Brandon of the WHL could hit 10-15 goals if given the chance on a nightly basis.
Nate Schmidt – The fleet-footed Schmidt was sent to the Canucks when Vegas signed Pietrangelo and couldn't afford both. The deal couldn't have come at a better time for Jim Benning as fans and media were watching prominent players leave in free agency with seemingly no plan in place. Schmidt brings speed and a two-way game where he should see time on the power play as well as short-handed. He should instantly slot in as the Canucks second-best defenceman and give the back end two players that can skate it out of their end with regularity. He has averaged 0.47 to 0.53 pts/game for the past three seasons and should have no trouble duplicating that in Vancouver.
Subtractions:
Troy Stecher – I have coined Stecher "Alex Biega plus plus" before and, ironically, Stecher joins Biega in Detroit. They are both fine players but are both limited in what they can do in their end and on offence. Stecher was one of the hardest-working players on the Canucks and they will miss his tenacity and work ethic but they should be able to replace him fairly easily in the lineup.
Tyler Toffoli – It's a shame that the shortened season only allowed Toffoli 10 regular-season games and seven playoff games for the price of a 2nd round draft pick and Tyler Madden in return. A lot of people in Vancouver wanted the Canucks to re-sign Toffoli hoping for the same point per game pace that he showed in his brief time here. Toffoli has 0.54 pts/game over the past three seasons and averages about 22 goals per year. Brock Boeser is and always was going to be the better option and for $4.25 million AAV the Canucks might match those stats from within this season or next from a player they already have.
Jacob Markstrom – Having Markstrom move to Calgary for six years at $6 million AAV hurts the Canucks deeply. He has been a rock in goal for this team and the Canucks will be hard-pressed to get even close to the level he has provided with the tandem of Thatcher Demko and Braden Holtby. Single-handedly this move will cost the team three to five wins next season.
Chris Tanev – Tanev is another big blow to the team as his departure will force the team to replace him from within and with Brogan Rafferty, Olli Juolevi and perhaps Jalen Chatfield as the most likely replacements, this is quite a gap between Tanev and any one of those players. There was no way the Canucks could match the four year $4.5 million AAV that Calgary offered, but the contract is a testament to how valued Tanev is in this league. The Canucks penalty kill will suffer next season without him and his role in Quinn Hughes adapting so well in his rookie season shouldn't be understated.
Josh Leivo – Leivo suffered a bad kneecap fracture last season and was limited to only 36 games but he did manage seven goals and 19 points which was a 0.53 pts/game pace. His career-high is 14 goals at 27-years of age, but he still has a chance to score 20 goals in this league if healthy and playing in the top six. He's an inconsistent player that can disappear for a few games at a time, but when he is playing well he can drive play quite well. From a depth perspective, Leivo moving to Calgary hurts the roster.
Vegas Golden Knights
Additions:
Alex Pietrangelo – I'm not sure this signing helps Shea Theodore reach 50 points in the next two or three seasons as Pietrangelo is coming into Vegas with the expectation of being the quarterback on the first unit. They are different players, but this reminds me of Toronto bringing in Tyson Barrie last season when Morgan Rielly was already there. There is only one PP quarterback getting 25-30 points on each team every year and something has to give here. By signing Pietrangelo, trading Schmidt and how this affects Theodore, I'm not sure that the result actually improves Vegas that much.
Carl Dahlstrom – Dahlstrom is a depth pickup to bolster the backend as a 6th or 7th defenceman who was included in the Paul Stastny trade. He shouldn't provide more than 16 or 17 minutes when he does get into the lineup and he won't provide any fantasy value.
Subtractions:
Nate Schmidt – The Golden Knights are still in cap trouble, so Schmidt might not be the only defenceman moved before the beginning of the season in January. The team will miss his versatility, skating them out of trouble and his potential 40 points each year. One for one, the team has improved by adding Pietrangelo over Schmidt but there are other factors involved.
Paul Stastny – Another victim of the salary cap is Stastny and his $6.5 million cap hit. At 34 years of age, perhaps he is beginning to show signs of slowing down with just 38 points in 71 games last year, but he is still a valuable player in the league and Vegas will need to hope that Cody Glass is more ready this year than he was last.
Jon Merrill – Merrill has been a good depth defenceman for Vegas over the past three seasons, but the emergence of Zach Whitecloud made his departure a foregone conclusion at the end of the playoffs. Carl Dahlstrom was brought in as well for depth.
Winnipeg Jets
Additions:
Derek Forbort – If Forbort can bounce back from an injury-plagued season that only allowed him 20 games last year, he should be able to become a regular 4th or 5th defenceman on Winnipeg's depleted back end. He is certainly worth a gamble as he had been decent in Los Angeles for the three seasons prior logging more than 20 minutes per night while racking up blocked shots and more than 100 hits per season.
Paul Stastny – This will be Stastny's second stint in Winnipeg after being picked up as a rental for the 2018 playoffs. There were all sorts of rumours that he would re-sign in Winnipeg, but he ended up in Vegas on a three year $6.5 million AAV deal. Skip ahead a few years and the Jets are now responsible for the last year of that contract, but Stastny is now 34 years old. The good news for Stastny is that the Jets are stacked in their top six and this should benefit him quite a bit. If he finds himself playing a good deal of minutes with Patrik Laine and Nikolaj Ehlers he should see the other side of 50 points once again.
Subtractions:
Cody Eakin – With Stastny coming in, the team won't miss Eakin that much as Stastny should put up much better numbers and give the team more options on the power play and in the faceoff circle.
Anthony Bitetto – The team will miss the 145 hits in 51 games that Bitetto provided, but his 15 minutes per game should be easily replaced by Forbort or a young player coming up through the system like Sami Niku or Ville Heinola.
Dmitry Kulikov – Kulikov was forced to play over 20 minutes/game last year for the first time in his three seasons in Winnipeg. It's like the Jets had five bottom pairing defenseman last year and Kulikov wasn't the only one playing elevated minutes. Kulikov was decent but doesn't provide much offence and the Jets will need more than Neal Pionk and Josh Morrissey chipping in with points from the defence.
It is probably a little early to decide completely if teams have improved or not from their additions and subtractions as there will be more signings and more trading as we draw closer to January. It seems like sometimes the GMs are just shuffling the cards to move sideways.
Thanks for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions, please let me know below and/or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.