Ramblings: Lemieux, Weegar Sign; Forwards Falling Out of Top 100 Roto? (Nov 7)
Ian Gooding
2020-11-07
On Friday the Rangers signed Brendan Lemieux, their final RFA, to a two-year contract with a cap hit of $1.55 million. Lemieux had been asking for $2 million and the Rangers had countered with just over $1 million, so the two sides agreed to meet in the middle. Lemieux scored six goals and 18 points in 59 games in 2019-20, his second full NHL season.
Lemieux probably shouldn't be on your radar in pure scoring leagues with all the young talent above him on the Blueshirts, but he is worthy of consideration in bangers leagues because of his ability to reach double-digits in both hits and penalty minutes. Here's what I said about Lemieux in the PIM Producers article in last year's Fantasy Guide:
Speaking of bloodlines, Brendan is a chip off the ol' block of his dad, who is former pest Claude Lemieux. The younger Lemieux accumulated very high penalty minutes in both the OHL and AHL with triple-digit PIM totals in four of those seasons. He even reached NHL triple-digits in a 2018-19 season that saw him get traded to the Rangers from the Jets, so there's the potential for him to increase that number in a big way with more minutes.
I also included Lemieux in this year's PIM Producers article, which I've expanded to include hits. Want to find out what I said? You're going to have to purchase the Fantasy Guide to find out!
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The Panthers have signed defenseman Mackenzie Weegar to a three-year contract with a cap hit of $3.25 million. Weegar generated a bit of interest in fantasy leagues in 2019-20, scoring seven goals and 18 points in just 45 games. That put him at a similar points-per-game pace to the likes of Devon Toews, Dmitry Orlov, and Jacob Trouba. His most frequent defensive partner for those games and the Panthers' return-to-play games was Aaron Ekblad, so the icetime should be there. With almost no power-play time, Weegar's offensive upside will probably remain limited for the time being, though.
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I will have a November update of the Top 100 Roto Rankings at around the middle of the month. I honestly didn't think I'd be making a ton of updates after a lot in October. However, after crunching some numbers based on the Fantasy Guide projections for both skaters and goalies, there's going to be some more significant changes for November.
I mentioned yesterday that I needed to let more goalies into the top 100. This will come at the expense of a few forwards. The common theme among these forwards is that they produce decent scoring totals – even not that far off from a point per game – so a solid argument can be made for their inclusion. However, their peripherals are weak or their point total is very assist-heavy. This doesn't matter as much in a points-only format, where their value is likely to be higher. What this means is that I don't think you'll get full value if you draft any of these players before pick 100 in your roto league.
I'm not here to question his role on the Leafs, or whether he should be traded, or even his scoring ability. And yes, I'm aware that his 31 goals was a career high and was second on the Leafs. His shooting percentage was also a career high 15.7 percent, so it's possible that his goal total could drop a little next season. But that's not the point I wish to emphasize here.
With just nine hits in 2019-20 and no more than 25 hits in any one season, Nylander is Johnny Gaudreau-lite. Yes, I'm aware that Nylander finished with one more point than Gaudreau in 2019-20, but that was Gaudreau in a down season versus Nylander in a career season (so far). Remove the hits and Nylander should be a top-100 player in any non-bangers format.
Voracek is another forward who resembles Nylander. His hits total is also extremely low – 17 in each of the past two seasons and not more than 30 in each of the past four seasons. His shots total also took a significant nosedive in 2019-20, as was credited with only 132 SOG. The lack of shots also explains the low goal total (just 12 goals).
Voracek is still a consistent point producer, though. Over the past three seasons, he has never recorded fewer than 0.8 points per game, and he has never finished with below 0.7 points per game over his past eight seasons. If the composition of the points doesn't matter in your points league, then he's fine. However, the 31-year-old winger has never reached the 25-goal mark in his career, and doesn't seem like he will at this point.
Perhaps because of his role as Alex Ovechkin's long-time linemate, Backstrom has been assist-heavy throughout his career. To compare with the Voracek, the soon-to-be 33-year-old Backstrom has one season of 33 goals (2009-10), but no other seasons where he has reached 25 goals. It would also be a bit of a surprise if he reached that 25 goals before his career ends.
Backstrom is not much more of a hitter than Nylander and Backstrom, having being credited for 30 in 2019-20 and only more than 50 once in the past four seasons. Since he's not a sharpshooter, it should come as little surprise that he has not reached 200 shots in any season since 2010-11, with an average of just over two shots per game in 2019-20. All the assists (50+ over the past six seasons before 2019-20) are great for a points league, but there's not enough in the other categories to justify picking him within the top 100 in roto. Even if Ovechkin shows no signs of slowing down.
Since Vladimir Tarasenko is still expected to be sidelined for awhile once the season starts, I still sort of like Perron this coming season. He's going to receive top-line duty and first-unit power-play time for the Blues again. He fits within the top 50 in both goals and points, although on the lower end. He seems to be peaking in his early 30s, which is not the norm but not unheard of. He's a fairly physical player who has reached 100+ hits in four seasons throughout his career, most recently in 2017-18.
Maybe the problem is that he doesn't really stand out in any one category, or that there is a sign or two that his production could trend downward. In spite of the recent spike in production over the last three seasons, he has never reached 200 shots, instead relying on a high shooting percentage. As well, his team-leading 27 power-play points from 2019-20 well surpasses his previous career high of 18 power-play points. His 79.4% PP IPP (also team-leading) shows that a regression might be inevitable in that category at the very least, even with first-unit power-play time.
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Finally, here's a goal celebration that you might not have ever seen before.
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Don't forget… Bubble Keeper Week starts tomorrow! Get ready to talk about your fringe keeper players for one full week.
For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.