Top 10 Should-Be Bubble Players

Tom Collins

2020-11-16

For the past week, the writers here at Dobber Hockey have been writing about all those tough bubble keeper choices.

We were given a list of players that were considered keepers and told to write about players not on the list. My top 10 last week of unlisted players that you should consider keeping included Darnell Nurse, Jeff Petry and Jesse Puljujarvi.

For me, there were some players on the keeper list that I believe should be on the bubble. Guys like Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid and Nikita Kucherov are no-brainers. However, there were still some players that would make for a tough decision.

None of the players are guaranteed drops, but shouldn't be considered guaranteed keepers either.

10. Jonathan Drouin

While we're safely at the point where we can say that Drouin will never live up to his third overall billing, we're also at the stage to recognize what you see is what you get: A 50-ish point player who might reach 60 points in a perfect year. Many Habs fans were pleased with Drouin's play last season before he suffered wrist and ankle injuries that limited him to 27 games, but he still only put up a 46-point pace. The other issue with keeping Drouin is that he doesn't contribute much in other fantasy hockey categories. He's a minus-play who doesn't shoot, hit or take faceoffs.

9. Kevin Labanc

Like Drouin, Labanc doesn't contribute much in multi-cat leagues. He has yet to hit 200 shots in a season (although he was on pace this year), doesn't hit and isn't a huge PIM contributor. His minus-33 last season was pretty appalling, and he's only been a positive plus player once. In points-only fantasy leagues, you're still waiting for a huge breakout. Sure, his 56 points in 2018-19 were nice, but he took a step back last season with 33 points in 70 games. You're hoping in a best-case scenario that he gets back to 55 points, which doesn't scream guaranteed keeper.

8. Erik Gustafsson

Two years ago, Gustafsson had an unbelievable season when he took over the top power-play duties in Chicago and had 53 points in his final 58 games. That's an 82-game pace of 75 points. However, he only has 66 points in his other 163 career games, which equals a 33-point pace over 82 games. Now he's going to Philadelphia, where the Flyers already have a top power-play option in Ivan Provorov, not to mention Shayne Gostisbehere. It's going to be a tough slog for Gustafsson to get top offensive minutes and there are too many options if he slips.

7. Phil Kessel

The optimist looks at Kessel's first year in Arizona as an aberration. He was a point-per-game player in Pittsburgh, and was dealing with a groin injury throughout most of last season. He's also one of the league's best iron men, not missing a game since the 2009-10 season. However, the pessimist sees Kessel's 38 points in 70 games in his first season with the Coyotes to go along with a declining shot rate. The pessimist also knows next year with be tougher in Arizona with the loss of Taylor Hall and all the offseason drama.

6. Mark Giordano

In three of the last four seasons, Giordano has averaged an 82-game point pace of 40 points. In that one outlier season, he had a 78-point pace. While the 37-year-old Flames defenseman is never going to approach that high mark again, you still want a defenseman keeper who is good for a guaranteed 40 points, a mark Gio is barely reaching. Remember, last season was such a disappointment that the Flames traded for Gustafsson and gave him the reins on the top power play. This could be Giordano's last real chance as the top guy in Calgary, especially with rookie Juuso Valimaki looking to usurp Gio.

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5. Jamie Benn

Benn's career in points-only leagues may have hit its expiry date. Two seasons ago, he had 53 points. Last year, he had a 46-point pace, his lowest since he was a rookie in 2009-10. His shot-per-game rate of 2.36 is also the lowest since his rookie season and half a shot lower than what he was averaging two years ago. While his hit total last year was still decent, he's no longer a fixture on the top power play and his ice time was down to 16:26 this year, about three minutes fewer per game than a couple of campaigns ago. Throw in the fact that his most frequent linemate, Tyler Seguin, is out until April after right hip arthroscopy and labral repair, and it doesn't look good for a bounce-back season for Benn.

4. Samuel Girard

I'm in the minority when it comes to Girard. While there are plenty of fantasy general managers who love the upside of the 22-year-old, I don't think he'll get enough of an opportunity to be worthy of a keeper spot. There's a lot of competition for ice time in Colorado. Cale Makar and Ryan Graves are cemented in the top two spots. Now there's Devon Toews, not to mention potential rookie phenom Bowen Byram, with opportunities to eat into Girard's ice time as well.

3. Matt Duchene

I did consider Filip Forsberg instead of Duchene, but at least Forsberg gives you a few more goals, points, power-play points and shots while throwing at least twice as many hits. And he does it for $2 million less per season if you're in a cap league. That leaves Duchene as more of a bubble keeper. If you're a believer that he can turn it around and get 65-70 points, then obviously you keep him. However, I believe he'll cap out at 55 points, and there are better options for you, especially if in multi-cat leagues.

2. Darcy Kuemper

Many times, if you can win the goaltending categories, you're going to win your fantasy league. That's why it would be so tough to put your trust in Kuemper. He spends so much time on the IR that he doesn't contribute enough to your fantasy squad. He played 55 games in 2018-19 and has reached 30 games in a season on one other occasion. While he's effective when he does play, his lack of games may not be enough for you to consider using a keeper spot on him.

1. Alex Killorn

There's a lot of reasons to like Killorn as a keeper. He rarely misses any games and can slot in anywhere from the first to the fourth line. He also just put up a career-high 49 points in 68 games (an 82-game pace of 59 points). However, there should be some concern than the 31-year-old hit that career high in his eighth season in the big leagues. We're not talking about a 24-year-old who is in the upswing of his career. He's at the age where his production should be dropping, not increasing. It wouldn't be any surprise if Killorn goes back to a 45-point pace this season.

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