Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of Alex MacLean’s weekly Capped column. As a reminder, to access the actual forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a 12 Team H2H (1 win – Roto) league starting 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 1Util, 4D, 3D (6 bench spots), scoring G, A, PPP, SOG, FOW, HIT, BLK, W, GAA, Sv%, SHO, and with 4 weekly starts and 4 weekly acquisitions, a team projects to keep the following players:

C – Connor McDavid, Evgeni Malkin, Mark Scheifele
LW – Brad Marchand

D – Morgan Rielly

G – Andrei Vasilevskiy

Would it make sense for the team to trade a draft pick to obtain Victor Hedman and then dangle Rielly out there to other teams?

First and foremost, I would indeed go after Hedman. While there is a lurking threat that upstart Mikael Sergachev could cut into Hedman's PP time, as Tyson Barrie did to Rielly last season, the reality is Hedman will almost assuredly remain "the guy" among Tampa d-men, including on the PP. After all, this is someone who's posted 0.75 points per game as a rearguard in each of the past four seasons, something that not a single other NHL defenseman accomplished.

But there's a wrinkle. Once Hedman has been obtained, keep both him and Rielly, opting instead not to retain Mark Scheifele.

Yes, Scheifele is one of only seven NHLers to post point per game output over each of the past four seasons. But his best point per game pace in any of those seasons was 1.04, while each of the other six had at least one season of 1.19 points per game, and five of the six had at least one of 1.26 per game. So Scheifele's a steady eddie but in both the good and bad sense of the word.

Moreover, although Scheifele's goals per 82 games pace over the past four seasons was 34, he's never had 200 SOG in season. And dating back to 2000-01, there have been just 24 instances of players who had 34+ goals but 200 or fewer shots, with only six having recorded more than 85 points in a season and only two (Claude Giroux and Anze Kopitar in 2017-18) being older than Scheifele when doing so. And both Giroux and Kopitar accomplished the feat while shooting at least five percentage points above their career shooting percentage. In other words, if Scheifele was going to be a big scorer, he'd already been one or would be a far higher volume shooter. As such, barring a season of super high shooting percentage, his ceiling will remain 85 points.

Contrast that to Rielly, whom we saw could do great things in 2018-19 and be pushed aside last season when it came to PP1 only because the Leafs had another option in Tyson Barrie. But this season they have no such luxury, making a return to 2018-19 production likely for Rielly. I like the risk/reward of keeping Rielly over Scheifele, who also happens to play the deepest position in fantasy, namely center. So I'd indeed add Hedman, then not keep Scheifele.

Topic #2 – In a 12 team H2H league starting 5F, 3D, 1Util, 1G and counting as stats: Pts=4, PIM=0.1, PPP=1, SHP=3, GWG=1.5, SOG=0.25, Hits=0.1, Blocks=0.2, GS=1, W=5, L=-3, GA=-1, SV=.2, SO=10, four players can be kept. In addition to Nikita Kucherov, Jack Eichel, and Victor Hedman, who should be the last keep: Andrei Svechnikov, Igor Shesterkin, Mika Zibanejad, Blake Wheeler, or Patrice Bergeron? Offseason trading is allowed.

Bergeron was kept last season but he's not the guy this season, especially with the chance he could be playing without David Pastrnak and/or Brad Marchand for a chunk of the beginning of the 2020-21 campaign. And although I think reports of the fantasy demise of Blake Wheeler are far too premature, he doesn't quite measure up to the other three options.

Zibanejad has arrived, big time. Yes, his shooting percentage last season was elevated; but his IPP rose for the third straight season and he's on a team that is already very good but stands to improve even further with the addition of Alexis Lafreniere and the maturation of Adam Fox (more on him in another topic below).

But there's also Svechnikov, who, at 19, became just the fourth teen since 2000-01 – Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, and Connor McDavid being the others – with at least 0.9 points per game and over 2.6 SOG per game. Add to that the fact he also had 116 hits in 68 games last season and he might just be the heir apparent to the multi-cat plus elite scoring crown that has been worn by Alex Ovechkin for over a decade.

As for Shesterkin, he's been handed the reins on the Rangers and has dominated at every stage of his young career, not to mention looked quite at ease in his 12 NHL appearances last season. Yet who's to say what he'll do when the spotlight is put squarely on him, not to mention when he has to stand up to the rigors of a full NHL season, with more starts than he's likely ever made as a junior or pro.

Of Zibs, Svechnikov and Shesterkin, the first who I'd eliminate from consideration is Shesterkin. For one, this is a league where each team can only keep four players, so I'm not convinced more than a handful of teams – if even that – will use one of those spots on a goalie. Also, I do worry that Shesterkin might not live up to the hype, or at least not right away. As for Zibanejad versus Svechnikov, with there not being positional requirements and given all he brings to the table, I think it has to be Zibs. He shoots and scores a ton, is better on the PP than Svechnikov, and hits a decent amount. Yes, it is tough tossing back Svechnikov, so much so that I'd consider keeping him over Eichel. Although Eichel would be the safer pick, Svechnikov could pay more handsome dividends over the long haul. I probably stick with Eichel, but I can see a case being made for Svechnikov over him. Whoever isn't kept of the two, definitely try to trade him.

Topic #3 – In a points only dynasty, how do the following players rank: Kevin Fiala, Nick Suzuki, Dominik Kubalik, Kailer Yamamoto?

Each player is tantalizing but also has a question mark. For Fiala, he played great last season but is on a team that limits ice time even of its stars, perhaps making it difficult for him to be able to get much more than 70 points. Suzuki plays in a Claude Julien system. Kubalik was a superb rookie, but that was at age 24 and most older rookies don't have a great long-term track record. Yamamoto won't sniff PP1 and has the smallest sample size of any of the four.

In a dynasty points only league, I'm probably putting Yamamoto and Kubalik in a lower tier than Suzuki or Fiala. Why? Kubalik will be in his prime while Chicago is in the midst of rebuilding; and that's if indeed he isn't a one-hit-wonder, as other older rookies have been. Yamamoto likely will have a place in the Edmonton top six; however, as we've seen from wingers on Pittsburgh over the last ten years, just because you get to play on a line with a Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl does not mean you're ticketed for success, especially if, as is likely, there is not a spot for him on PP1. That being said, if everything was somehow to work out perfectly for Yamamoto, which I'd peg at about a 25% chance of happening, he could be the best of the bunch.

Who ranks first though, Suzuki or Fiala? What Suzuki did in a Claude Julien system and his first full season served to validate that he seemingly has the tools to be an elite player. And by the time he'll be peaking, Julien likely will be gone, leaving Suzuki free reign to shine offensively. Fiala clearly has shown more than Suzuki thus far; however, that all happened when he spent most of his time on a line with Eric Staal, Mikko Koivu, or Ryan Donato, all three of whom are now gone from Minnesota. And like Montreal, Minnesota was the only team where, for the second season in a row, no forward averaged 19:00 per game or 3:00 of man-advantage time, which effectively puts a ceiling on Fiala's output.

My final answer would depend on the goals of the team. If winning in the shorter term is key, then I'd put Fiala above Suzuki. But if the goal is to have the best player over the next 5+ years, then Suzuki might get the edge. If one truly wanted to swing for the fences in terms of risk vs. reward, however, he or she could gamble on Yamamoto, who, as I noted, has an outside chance of being the best of the bunch by quite a bit yet could also easily lag behind Suzuki and Fiala.

Topic #4 – In a 12 team, H2H keep 8 league starting 2C, 2LW, 2RW, 4D, 2 UTIL with a minimum of three goalie starts per week and categories of G(6), A(4), PIM(1), PPG(3), PPA(2), SHP(3.5), GWG(2), SOG(1), FOW(.25), FOL(-.25), HIT(.5), and BLK(.33); W(6), L(-4), GA(-2), SV(.5), SO (4), which eight players should be kept:

C: Nicklas Backstrom, Mika Zibanejad, Vincent Trocheck, Bo Horvat, Ryan Getzlaf
RW: Alex DeBrincat, Kyle Palmieri, Kailer Yamamoto
LW: Leon Draisaitl, Pavel Buchnevich, Anders Lee, Zach Hyman, Kevin Fiala
D: Roman Josi, Victor Hedman, Thomas Chabot, Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek
G: Igor Shesterkin, Jacob Markstrom, Pavel Francouz
IR: Boeser

Let's start with the sure things: Zibs, Draisaitl, Josi, Hedman, and Hughes. All should be among the ten – if not five – best at their position in 2020-21. That leaves a total of three more spots.

Question one is whether to keep a goalie or even two. With saves weighted so heavily, it is wise to own a goalie who plays a lot. Connor Hellebuyck, the Vezina winner for 2019-20, had on the order of 625 fantasy points. But Carey Price, who did not have a strong season, still ended up with about 550 points. Why? Because Price had only 60 fewer saves than Hellebuyck, the league leader. So while there are exceptions (e.g., Tuukka Rask who, despite ranking only 16th in saves, had a lot of points due to so few loses and GAs), in this league appearances matter as much if not more so than skill provided the goalie with a lot of appearances doesn't have a ton of losses or give up loads of goals.

Given all the money he signed for, Markstrom is all but assured to be treated like a true #1 netminder and get all the starts he can handle in 2020-21, in turn padding his saves total and racking up points for this squad. It also helps that he plays for a Calgary team that should be pretty good, helping with wins and not hurting him too much in GA and losses. Shesterkin could be Rask 2.0 if he can shine despite being coddled. Also, if indeed he's as good as has been advertised then it would be a shame to let him go and be able to not reap future dividends. Moreover, Shesterkin provides a good streaming option for when Calgary plays tougher teams. Let's put Markstrom down as a keep and Shesterkin as a maybe, depending on the quality of the remaining skaters.

Who is the last one, if Shesterkin is kept, or two skater keeps? Chabot is a superb rearguard, whom I pointed out in a Goldipucks column is likely to bounce back this season to meet or even exceed his 2018-19 output. But after he fared just okay in 2019-20 and given he's on Ottawa, he might be a redraft. It will depend on what the rest of the forwards look like.

The forwards who stand out are Fiala, Horvat and Boeser. All Horvat has done is increase his scoring rate every season he's been in the league. Sure, that stops eventually; however, he is entrenched on PP1, the second line in Vancouver is pretty decent, and he gets a ton of FOW. He'll likely score within five or so points of Fiala and Boeser; and with his peripherals, including quite decent hits, SOG and PPPts, I think he gets the edge over them. So it boils down to Fiala, Boeser, Chabot, or Shesterkin for the last spot. The risk/reward pick is Shesterkin. If not him, then I'd go with Fiala because that way the team isn't too loaded with Vancouver players. That also means Chabot is indeed a redraft.

Topic #5 – In an auction league ($300 budget) where each team rosters 10F, 5D, 3G, 5 Bench and can keep 3F, 2D, 1G, five keepers are Nathan MacKinnon ($24), Mitch Marner ($26), Elias Pettersson ($14), Cale Makar ($16), and Ilya Samsonov ($6), and there are scoring categories of G A PTS +/- PIMS PPG PPA SHP GWG W GAA SV% SO, who should be the final keeper – Erik Karlsson at $6 or Miro Heiskanen at $11, neither of whom has been able to be traded when shopped to fellow GMs? 

Supposedly Karlsson is going to enter 2020-21 100% healthy. And let's not forget, even on a lousy team and playing through various injuries and their after-effects, Karlsson still was able to post 85 points in 109 games over the past two seasons, for a cumulative 0.78 points per game rate that was bested by only six other defensemen who played 100+ games. And although Brent Burns still looms large, San Jose had no qualms in letting Karlsson run PP1, as Karlsson was out there for over two-thirds of his team's man-advantage minutes, versus 62.1% for Burns.

As for Heiskanen, what we saw in the playoffs was unquestionably superb; however, in posting 26 points in 27 playoff contests Heiskanen not only had a double digits shooting percentage but also 70.3% for his IPP, which would be a high rate if he was a forward but as a defenseman is astoundingly high. To put Heiskanen's IPP in a better perspective, even the potent John Carlson had an IPP of only 61% during 2019-20. There's also the reality that John Klingberg is still in the mix, so we can't be sure whether Heiskanen will be given the keys to the PP1 car. Lastly, Dallas is a team that runs a defensive system and might be without its best offensive player in Tyler Seguin for a chunk of 2020-21.

Moreover, this team already has Cale Makar as its defenseman for the here and now and the future, making it less urgent to keep Heiskanen. Given the totality of circumstances, including Heiskanen's price tag is nearly double that of Karlsson, I'd go with Karlsson over Heiskanen and hope somehow that another GM will see the wisdom in trading for Heiskanen to get something for him rather than losing him for nothing.

Topic #6 – In an auction league where each team has $200 to spend on 10F, 5D, 2G, and elite goalies go for about $40, who are the best five goalies to own if W, SV% and SO are categories?

I could just list what I believe are the five best netminders in the NHL; but, instead, I'll try to pick the five best for this league, given its categories and the reality that each team has, on average, under $12 to spend on each player, with the top netminders going for $40 or so.

Question one is whether Connor Hellebuyck and/or Andrei Vasilevskiy makes sense in the league given their hefty price tags; and I'm not sure they do given that its SV% that counts rather than saves. Don't get me wrong, those two are still the best to own; however, spending a fifth of one's budget on one of them probably is not justified.

Guys I like in this format are Tuukka Rask and Darcy Kuemper, who might not log a ton of games but play great when they do. I can also see value in Pavel Francouz, Thatcher Demko and Elvis Merzlikins, who will be at worst 1Bs and could even emerge as full-fledged starters. Tristan Jarry and Robin Lehner should be very good in this format as well, with Lehner perhaps being a steal if he can replicate what he did in the playoffs.

I think Carter Hart might be only a tiny bit below Hellebuyck and Vas in terms of what he'll bring to a team, but cost a lot less. And then there's Igor Shesterkin, who enters the season with tons of hype and promise, as does Juuse Saros, who should be the 1A in Nashville. And even Carey Price could rebound now that he'll have a back-up to spell him, although his cost, along with that of Frederik Andersen, likely will be too high to justify paying. And Anton Khudobin was a superb back-up who now will be a #1 until Ben Bishop returns in March at the earliest.

Given the categories and budgets, I'd put my top five, in order, as Carter Hart, Tuukka Rask, Robin Lehner, Igor Shesterkin, and Darcy Kuemper. But many of the others I named would be wise draft targets in this league too. Of course, this assumes the NHL will play a normal schedule for 2020-21, as opposed to one which is compressed and/or where teams only play other squads in the same geographic region, in which case values would need to be reassessed.

Topic #7 – In a league counting G, A, PIM, PPG, PPA and +/-, how do these three defensemen rank for the next five years: Zach Werenski, Ivan Provorov and Adam Fox?

There is a universe in which all three could be top tier fantasy rearguards; however, the one who has the surest path to success would appear to be Werenski. At first, there were concerns as to whether he could thrive given the presence of Seth Jones; but after his last two seasons, it seems like he will be just fine despite Jones in the fold. After all, Werenski's points, PP percentage time and overall ice time increased in each of the past two seasons. Yes, added ice time also came with increased shorthanded duty; but Werenski's OZ% has remained 55% or more, signifying he's the teams "go-to" for rearguard offense.

Provorov shined last season when he was pressed into PP1 duty after Shayne Gostisbehere faltered. But the signing of Erik Gustafsson makes it clear the team wants Provorov to do what he does best, and that's….play defense. Could he eventually be a Drew Doughty or Shea Weber type who offers a combination of strong defense plus scoring? Yes, but only if given the chance to do so, which includes running PP1, and which it seems Philly is not going to do, at least not yet. And with two of six categories pertaining to PP scoring, that means Provorov's value in this type of league decreases.

Lost amid the hype surrounding the performance of Tony DeAngelo is that Fox scored 11 points in his last nine regular-season games and had more ice time than DeAngelo in each of the three Ranger postseason contests. The good news – or bad news, considering this league – is that in accumulating those 11 points Fox had none on the PP, and in fact only twice took the ice for more than a third of his team's man-advantage minutes. Looking ahead, however, he might have the highest ceiling, as New York opted to sign Tony DeAngelo for only two seasons. And although DeAngelo will still be an RFA after his deal ends, this will have given the Blueshirts a chance to see whether Fox is indeed someone who can be their top guy for blueline offense. In the interim though, something has to give, as although there have been six instances of a team having two 50+ point rearguards on the same team in the same season, most of them averaged upwards of 24:00 per game, which is unlikely to occur for Fox or DeAngelo. As such, one or both stand to see their scoring decrease, most likely DeAngelo, for reasons I outlined in a Golidipucks column in October. Long story short, Fox is highly skilled and plays for a team that should have one of the better offenses in the NHL for years to come; however, he probably won't get the ice time or deployment to truly shine, at least not for a few seasons.

All things considered, I'd rank Werenski first for the next three years, followed by Fox, who I think overtakes Werenski after three years, and then Provorov. If, however, the Erik Gustafsson experiment in Philadelphia fails and Provorov is back to manning PP1, he could be as good an option as Wersnski or Fox.

Topic #8 – In a 12 team H2H league with a maximum of 27 players per roster, starting 9F, 4D, 2G and with categories of G, A, +/-, PIM, Hits, ESP, W, SV%, GAA, there is a contract system allowing only two of the following players to be kept: Mark Stone, Chris Kreider, J.G. Pageau, Jamie Benn, Brayden Schenn, Steven Stamkos, Roman Josi, and Frederik Andersen. The other players being kept are:

Forwards: Anthony Cirelli, Anze Kopitar, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, Nicolaj Ehlers, Brandon Tanev, Ryan Johansen, Martin Necas, Rickard Rakell, Ivan Mikheyev
Defense: Mikael Sergachev, Jacob Trouba, Nikita Zadorov, Ben Chiarot, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Rasmus Sandin
Goalie: Ben Bishop, Thatcher Demko, Frederick Andersen

Which two of the eight should be kept, with the understanding that none can take the place of any of the other must keeps?

It's a shame more of the eight can't be kept; however, that is the nature of the league, so it is what it is. First off, let's eliminate Pageau, Benn, and Schenn from the equation, as they each fall short of what the other five bring to the table.

I believe Kreider will be great in this league; however, his excellence is well disguised by his season-long stats, making it so he's probably a redraft. Stone is one of the most WYSIWYG players in the NHL, and what you get is 75-80 points based on the way Vegas controls ice time. That just won't cut it given the other three options.

That leaves Stamkos, Josi and Andersen for two spots. Josi is a must keep, as his 2019-20 numbers were great and, more importantly, seem sustainable, as his increases in SOG and PPPts coincided with ice time gains at even strength and on the PP. Also, although his IPP marked a career-high, it was the third season in a row that it rose, plus he plays for Nashville, where the forwards tend not to be high scorers, leaving more points for Josi and his fellow blueliners. And Josi also had points in 46 of the 69 games he played. Compare that to John Carlson getting 75 points in only 44 of his games, and it shows that Josi is more consistent but also that he could have room for even more multipoint games. For these reasons, he's your lock keeper.

Stamkos versus Andersen is tougher. Yes, Stamkos hits; however, he shines in SOG and PPPts, which are not categories in this league. Andersen would be better if the league counted SVs instead of SV%. So both of them are not ideally suited to the league settings. In the end, though, I think it has to be Andersen due to the injury status of Bishop and the 1A/1B question mark for Demko. Also, when Demko plays, and once Bishop is healthy, they should help offset negatives posed by Andersen in terms of SV% and/or GAA, but you still get Andersen's wins, which should be among the top five in the league. It's very close, but I go with Andersen as the last keeper.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of the mailbag has room for a few more questions, so if you want my opinion on players or your teams, go ahead and ask away. To get your question(s) to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.