Capped: A team-by-team buy-and-sell – Part 1

Alexander MacLean

2020-11-19

We are well into the dull part of the second offseason that 2020 has given us, so it seems like a perfect time to use up the next eight weeks with our buy/sell series. That should take us into January just in time for the NHL to make a final decision on the start of the season.

This multi-week feature will cover each NHL team, analyzing one player to buy and one to sell. These recommendations will be based on their performance versus cap hit. That means in non-cap leagues, some of these suggestions may not be as relevant, but that doesn't mean the analysis isn't relevant. Generally, these players will either be riding new contracts into the season or be expected to have a large shift in value, for one reason or another. We went alphabetically last year, so this time we're going for the reverse. This year, since there are still a few reputable FAs out there, I'm also going to throw a few of those names in as well, and we'll cover those first. Here is the FA set, accompanied by Winnipeg, Washington, and Vegas. Let's get to it!

 

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Free Agents:

Anyone still unsigned to this point is unlikely to be a key component of a team no matter where they sign, and they are either going to be on a one-year deal, thus eligible as a free-agents to up their market value next year, or taking the term to get through the rough times. Either way, the AAVs should be advantageous on most FA contracts for the rest of the summer.  Let's take a look at which of the remaining FAs you may want to buy or sell before they sign their next contracts.

 

Buy: Sami Vatanen

Projected Cap Hit: $3,147,992

Good defencemen can be tough to find in fantasy circles, especially ones on reasonable contracts. At this point, Vatanen is going to have to take a bargain deal to sign somewhere. Additionally, working in his favour is the fact that anyone looking at his services would know that he is an offensive defenceman, and bring him in to help them on that side of the puck. With most teams set at this point, wherever Vatanen lands it is unlikely he has to carry heavy responsibilities, and could even sneak his way onto a power-play unit.

 

Sell: Anthony Duclair

Projected Cap Hit: $2,838,736

Unlike some of these sell options, you will have to time this one. As soon as Duclair signs, everyone will begin penciling in his new linemates and how he fits into his new team. Give things a few days to sink in and your league mates to read how well he could do while paired with player X and Y, and then put him on the block to sell to the highest bidder. Duclair fit in Ottawa because there was room for him to be thrown out in advantageous situations. Unless he signs with Detroit or San Jose then that won't be the case this year, and he will be pushed down the lineup sooner rather than later. His value won't get higher than the period five to seven days after he signs.

 

Winnipeg Jets

 

Buy: Jack Roslovic

Current Cap Hit: RFA

Projected Cap Hit: $2,365,000

The top skater group for the Jets is all established, and though they have some bargains, none are really 'buy-low' candidates. As a result, we have to look to the second tier, and that's where Roslovic comes in. He has the highest upside on the team outside of their top-six regulars, and could be in line to jump into that group with a rumoured trade of Patrik Laine. You don't only have to rely on a trade to free up space though, as a few of those top-six forwards have shown themselves to be injury prone, and his ice time was steadily growing through last season. He's a season away from his breakout threshold, so this may be a bit of a long-term asset.

 

Sell: Connor Hellebuyck

Current Cap Hit: $6,750,000

What a difference a year can make, and then the year before that, and then the year before that… Here is a chart of Hellebuyck's career stats, notice anything?

 

 

Hellebuyck alternates excellent seasons with average seasons, and he's due up to regress from his Vezina nominated season. Winnipeg's defence core has remained exactly the same, and it is unlikely that Hellebuyck will be able to hold up the same numbers he did all of this past season. Trade him to save some coin in a deal for one of the young Russians, or use him to fill a hole in one of your skater slots.

 

 

Washington Capitals

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Buy: Henrik Lundqvist

Current Cap Hit: $1,500,000

Everyone is ready to anoint Ilya Samsonov the starting goalie, however Lundqvist wasn't happy being a backup last season, and that won't have changed this year. To get Hank to sign, the Capitals would have had to say that the opportunity is there to seize the starting gig, and at minimum about half of the starts should be his by default. Samsonov's career-high in games played in a season in any league is 37, and that was in the AHL where he saved less than 90% of the shots he faced that year. Lundqvist may be one of the best value assets this year both in terms of acquisition cost and his cap hit.

 

Sell: Nicklas Backstrom

Current Cap Hit: $9,200,000

It is tempting to say John Carlson here, but at least he's only 30, and we have already seen a season worthy of his contract. Backstrom on the other hand hasn't produced enough to be paid over $9 million for arguably 10 years now. This is a legacy contract and one that I have already had to straight drop in one tight cap league. With the flat cap, there is no room on anyone's roster for huge overpayments like this. If you can get an asset in return then great, but don't be afraid to cut bait for nothing. You will likely be better off in the long run.

 

Vegas Golden Knights

 

Buy: Jonathan Marchessault

Current Cap Hit: $5,000,000

Robin Lehner and Shea Theodore are two big name bargains for the Golden Knights, however after the recent playoff run, those two aren't going to be bargains to acquire in your fantasy leagues. On the other hand, Jonathan Marchessault is going to cost the same amount against the cap, and can be just as valuable to your team. He seems to have settled in at a floor of 60 points, 270 shots, 100 hits, and some other peripheral production sprinkled in. His luck metrics bear out that last year was a bit of a valley, so a bit of an uptick next year in the scoring stats should be expected.

 

Sell: Alex Pietrangelo

Current Cap Hit: $8,800,000

Pietrangelo was actually in the St. Louis 'Sell' slow last year, but you have one more summer to sell him before the window slams shut on his value. Like anything in Vegas there is an initial shine, that is until you are there for a couple of weeks and finally sober up. The sobering up will be done by Pietrangelo's fantasy owners when they realize that he has to take over for Nate Schmidt's heavy quality of competition, defensive zone starts, and lack of powerplay time. Add that to a rising cap hit and it sounds like a recipe for a bad headache for his fantasy owners.

 

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All statistics are all pulled from FrozenTools, and all contract info from Capfriendly. Follow me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.

Stay safe!

 

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Previous Capped Articles:

Deeper Keeper Options for Bubble Keeper Week

Previewing the 2021 RFA Group

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