Top 10 Bounce-Back Candidates

Tom Collins

2020-11-23

With the NHL season looking to get underway within the next two months, many fantasy general managers are studying rosters and players to get a sense of potential bargains out there.

Quite often, the best bargains are in players who struggled last season. You might be able to pick up the player cheap from a fellow general manager who has little patience. Think of last offseason, when wily fantasy GMs were able to pick up Jaden Schwartz, Nikolaj Ehlers and Patrik Laine after that trio struggled in 2018-19.

Below are 10 players who struggled last season who are a good bet to bounce back.

10. Sergei Bobrovsky

Goalies are a fickle beast in fantasy hockey. It's common for a preseason, sure-fire stud to quickly turn into a lemon. We've been here before with Bobrovsky. After back-to-back 30-win campaigns earlier in his career, Bobrovsky had an awful 2015-16 with a 15-19-1 record, a 2.75 GAA, a .908 SV% and one shutout. Many fantasy general managers were finished with him. He then followed it up with three straight 37-plus win seasons and his second Vezina trophy. You should give goalies that switch teams a bit more leeway as they need to get used to a new city, new defensive system, new teammates, new goaltending coach, etc.

9. Max Domi

I was a skeptic the first year Domi was in Montreal, but he turned an opportunity in a new city into 28 goals and 72 points. Now he's in the same boat this upcoming season, finding a new home in Columbus. He's already in an improved position than last year. No longer stuck playing with the likes of Joel Armia, Artturi Lehkonen and Jordan Weal, Domi has the chance to play consistent top-six minutes with better producers, such as Cam Atkinson.

8. Matt Dumba

The 26-year-old should just be coming into his peak, but instead, he struggled this past season. However, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic for a bounce-back campaign. Many believe the ruptured pectoral muscle injury that cost him most of the 2018-19 season hampered him last season. He also shot only 3.6 per cent, easily his career low. Nothing is happening in Minnesota that would suggest he's going to lose ice time or opportunity.

7. Viktor Arvidsson

The Nashville forward had a tough 2019-20 campaign, but so too did all Nashville forwards. Last season, Arvidsson had only 15 goals and 28 points in 57 games. That's an 82-game pace of 22 goals and 40 points. However, in the previous three seasons, he averaged an 82-game pace of 37 goals and 65 points. Last season was an outlier and you should be able to count on him to rebound to the 30-goal, 60-point plateau.

6. Brent Burns

Put me in the camp that last season was an aberration for the Sharks and all of its players. However, while last year wasn't the greatest for Burns, it wasn't as bad as many believe. Even in a down year, Burns was still on pace for 14 goals, 53 points, 264 shots, 84 hits, 20 power-play points and 135 blocked shots. One good sign for a bounce-back season is that Burns never misses games. The last game he missed was in 2014-15, and he still played 81 games that year.

5. Kevin Labanc

Like Burns, I expect a host of Sharks players to bounce back this season. The soon-to-be 25-year-old Labanc took a low contract last year ($1 million) and was rewarded this offseason with a three-year deal at about $4.7 million a year. That's despite an 82-game pace of 39 points, even though his ice time was up about two minutes per game. I'm not sure if he'll break his 56-point mark from 2018-19, but he should come close to it this upcoming season.

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4. Alex DeBrincat

After a 76-point campaign in 2018-19, many were high on Debrincat going into last season, but 45 points in 70 games put a damper on that. Many fantasy general managers get frustrated when young players underperform, but not every player sees a linear uptick in production. It sounds like he won't lose his top-six role. In the regular season, his most common linemates were Dylan Strome and Patrick Kane. In the postseason, it was Kane, Kirby Dach and Strome. You have to like the usage, and if Chicago is serious about rebuilding, then the young players will be leaned on.

3. John Klingberg

Before you think Klingberg can't be too fantasy relevant with Miro Heiskanen on the roster, remember that Klingberg was the much better option in the second part of last season. It took Klingberg some games to bounce back after injuries limited him to 32 games in 2018-19. Last season, he had a tough start, with only four points in his first 17 games. But compare the stats between Klingberg and Heiskanen from Nov. 23 until the end of the season:

Heiskanen: 45 games, 18 points, 105 shots, five PPP, 33 hits, 48 blocked shots

Klingberg: 41 games, 28 points, 84 shots, 15 PPP, 16 hits, 54 blocked shots

Klingberg was simply the better player for fantasy. Even those who believe that Heiskanen is the better option after he put up 26 postseason points, Klingberg was right behind at 21 points.

2. Morgan Rielly

It was the perfect recipe for a poor season from Rielly last year. Combine a loss of power-play time with a new coaching staff, and add a dash of a foot injury and voila: A 47-point pace over 82 games. The biggest impact on his poor season was the Leafs' decision to go with Tyson Barrie on the power play. While Rielly was getting the tough minutes at five-on-five, Barrie was getting easier minutes plus plum power-play time. Now with Barrie in Edmonton, Rielly should be back to all those prime power-play minutes and get back to a 60-point pace again.

1. Taylor Hall

I'm not sure if I'd be willing to re-invest in Hall in a keeper pool, as he would cost too much and I believe he's turned into mostly a 65-point player. In the past five seasons, he's been fantastic for about a season and a third of that, and the rest of that time is around a 65-point pace. However, now that he's landed in Buffalo for a season, he's in a great situation to cash in next year. Playing alongside Jack Eichel will be beneficial for Hall, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see Hall get back to a 90-point-plus pace.

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