Eastern Edge: Risers and Fallers in the East including Grzelcyk, Olofsson, Niederreiter

Brennan Des

2020-11-24

Last week, Wild West writer Grant Campbell had the awesome idea of discussing risers and fallers in fantasy keeper leagues. He highlighted players with rising fantasy value ('risers') and declining fantasy value ('fallers') from each team in the Western Conference. Risers are players that you'd want to keep on your fantasy roster, while fallers are players you may want to offload in the near future. I highly recommend you give Grant's article a read here! One of our wonderful readers requested that we do a similar review of the Eastern Conference, so that's what we'll start doing in this week's Eastern Edge – with this being the first of three parts. (Thanks for the suggestion 'Geoff Boldgloom'; I loved your work in that dinosaur movie – 'Purassic Jark'?)

Boston

RisersMatt Grzelcyk, Charlie McAvoy, Jake DeBrusk, Ondrej Kase

Fallers – David Krejci

Torey Krug's departure opens up a spot on Boston's top power-play unit, which should be filled by either Matt Grzelcyk or Charlie McAvoy. Over the years, we've seen Grzelcyk take on more responsibility in short stretches during Krug's absences. When Krug was sidelined with an upper-body injury for five games this last November, Grzelcyk tallied four points and was trusted with a prominent role on the power play. Grzelcyk should see more offensive opportunity during the 2020-2021 campaign, but if he doesn't make the most of that opportunity, McAvoy is more than capable of stepping in and taking over. Recall, McAvoy had 19 points in 27 games down the stretch last year and continues to develop into an elite blueliner. If DeBrusk and Kase are going to break out and elevate their fantasy hockey value, you'd expect it to happen within the next year or two.

I'm hesitant to call Krejci a 'faller' because of the consistency he's displayed throughout his career. He's paced for at least 54 points in 12 of his 13 NHL seasons – the only exception being his rookie year back in 2007-2008 when he put up a 40-point pace. With such a high floor, it's hard not to like Krejci in fantasy formats. However, he's getting a bit older now, so I think we'll be seeing more of 50-point Krejci going forward, rather than the 70-point Krejci we've seen in previous years.

 

Buffalo

Risers – Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin, Victor Olofsson

Fallers – Colin Miller

I don't think you need me to sell you on the upward trajectory of Eichel and Dahlin. We know both players are extremely talented and should be able to improve their offensive production as they continue to develop their games. In addition, they're likely to benefit from a more talented supporting cast in Buffalo, which now features Taylor Hall and Eric Staal. Victor Olofsson burst onto the scene with 42 points in 54 games during his rookie season – a 64-point pace. We've seen a lot of young players struggle during their second season, as opponents have had time to develop strategies to shut them down. In addition to the sophomore slump, Hall's arrival likely pushes Olofsson off the top line and away from Eichel. While I am optimistic about Olofsson being a 65-point player in the coming years, don't be surprised if he experiences a few growing pains this year.

As a Golden Knight, Miller averaged nearly 20 minutes of ice time and saw roughly 50-percent of the team's total power-play time. He scored at a 40-point pace during his two seasons in Vegas under these favourable conditions. Unfortunately, he won't have that same opportunity on Buffalo's blueline, where Dahlin and Ristolainen have a firm hold on most of the offensive minutes. This was evident last year as Miller skated just 17 minutes a night and saw less than 30-percent of the team's time with the man advantage. Perhaps you're surprised that I didn't list Eric Staal or Jeff Skinner as fallers. Well I'm cautiously optimistic about Buffalo's second line and think Staal can help awaken some of Skinner's offensive talent which appeared dormant last year.

Carolina

RisersAndrei Svechnkov, Martin Necas, Warren Foegele, Jaccob Slavin

Fallers – Ryan Dzingel, Nino Niederreiter, Jake Gardiner, Jordan Staal

After scoring at a 30-point pace over his first four years in the NHL, Jaccob Slavin showed another level of offensive talent during year number five. The 2019-2020 campaign saw Slavin take on more responsibility while Dougie Hamilton was sidelined with injury. He thrived in this increased role, scoring 14 points in 21 games – a 54-point pace. That impressive performance should earn him more offensive opportunities, even while Hamilton is healthy and in the lineup.

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As you look between the Hurricanes' risers and fallers, you'll notice a theme of older proven players being replaced by younger up-and-coming talent. I think that's a theme we'll be seeing in Carolina over the next few years as the team has a number of talented young players whose roles should gradually increase as they continue to develop. Guys like Dzingel, Niederreiter and Staal may be relegated to depth roles as younger guys like Warren Foegele and Martin Necas get opportunities in the top-six. Speaking of Niederreiter, his time with the Hurricanes got off to a great start as he tallied 30 points in his first 36 games with the team during the 2018-2019 campaign. He struggled from the get-go last year and ended up losing his spot on the top line to Andrei Svechnikov – who was excellent alongside Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. It's hard to see Niederreiter working his way back into that spot given Svechnikov's meteoric rise to superstardom.

You'll notice I didn't classify Vincent Trocheck as a faller despite back-to-back disappointing seasons following that 75-point showing in 2017-2018. Ultimately, I feel that it's too early to write him off considering we've only seen him play 15 games with the Hurricanes so far. Hopefully the offseason will help him fully recover from the injuries he's suffered in recent years.

 

Columbus

RisersPierre-Luc Dubois, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Zach Werenski, 

Fallers – Cam Atkinson, Mikko Koivu, Boone Jenner, Nick Foligno,

Dubois followed up an impressive 48-point rookie season with a near 60-point pace over his second and third years in the NHL. At 22 years of age, he's still getting better and his fantasy value will continue to increase in the near future.

Bjorkstrand's breakout performance last year was largely overshadowed by injuries and the shortened season. He got off to a slow start with six points in his first 19 games but caught fire with 30 points in his final 30 appearances of the campaign. Bjrokstrand is certainly someone you want on your fantasy roster over the next few years.

If we're just looking at the upcoming season, I think Cam Atkinson is a solid bounce-back candidate. His 2019-2020 was largely hindered by injuries and he still managed a 48-point pace. Columbus' forward corps became a little more dangerous following the addition of Max Domi, so I could see Atkinson finishing with 55-60 points this year if he can stay healthy. With that being said, I don't think Atkinson will be able to return to the 70-point pace he registered during the 2018-2019 campaign when Artemi Panarin was on the roster. So, I feel more comfortable labelling him as a faller in this case.

At the age of 37, it's fair to say that Koivu's most productive years are behind him. He established himself as a 70-point player during the first-half of his career and regressed to more of a 50-point player in recent years. The 2019-2020 campaign marked a significant drop in production as he scored at a career-worst 31-point pace. This decreased output reflected a reduced role with the Wild, as he saw under 16 minutes of ice time per game and just 30-percent of the team's total power-play time. He's expected to play a similar depth role in Columbus – a team that isn't exactly known for its offense. At this stage of his career, I don't think Koivu will be all that relevant in fantasy leagues.

Boone Jenner showed some offensive potential early on in his career, which is highlighted by the 49 points he tallied during the 2015-2016 campaign. Unfortunately, he hasn't been able to rediscover that level of offensive success – now settling into a defensively-minded 35-point player archetype. Columbus added some offensive center depth in Mikko Koivu and Max Domi, so it's hard to see Jenner's offensive output improving any time soon. There are some similarities between Jenner's fantasy outlook and Nick Foligno's. Foligno had that one 76-point season in 2014-2015 but has mostly been a 40-point player since then. Foligno will also be relegated to more of a depth role as younger, more offensively-dynamic options take over in Columbus.

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