Ramblings: Consistency Percentage and What It Could Mean (Nov 29)

Ian Gooding

2020-11-29

I know that I mention Frozen Tools a ton in my writing. It's now my go-to site for everything from the usual statistics to the unconventional. Quite frankly I would be at a loss for topics to write about during an extended offseason. What makes Frozen Tools interesting is the choices beyond the usual stat categories.

One of those choices that I recently wanted to examine further was the Most Consistent option, which lists both a Game Played With Point stat as well as a Consistency Percentage. Here is the chart of the top ten, sorted by Consistency %.

NameGPPTSPTS/GGP w/ PointConsistency %
LEON DRAISAITL711101.555678.9
ARTEMI PANARIN69951.385478.3
PATRICK KANE70841.205477.1
NATHAN MACKINNON69931.355376.8
NIKITA KUCHEROV68851.255276.5
DAVID PASTRNAK70951.365375.7
BRAD MARCHAND70871.245375.7
CONNOR MCDAVID64971.524875.0
MITCHELL MARNER59671.144474.6
EVGENI MALKIN55741.354174.5  

For the full list of results, click here.

As you'd expect, the top-scoring players in the league are also the most consistent. In other words, you see fewer zeros beside these star players' names when examining your team boxscores on a particular day. You probably don't need me to tell you that these are players you want to have on your fantasy team.

What about players that have a high consistency percentage but score at below a point per game? Perhaps these players are less prone to hot-and-cold streaks, or are just nice to own because you can count on them for something.

Kailer Yamamoto

Yamamoto has a low games-played total relative to others around him on the list due to his midseason callup. Once he was up, he was a must-own in fantasy leagues, recording at least one point in 19 of the 27 games he played in. That worked out to a consistency percentage of 70.4%, which is not far below the leaders. In those 27 games, Yamamoto scored 26 points to give him 0.96 PTS/GP, which was a top-30 among players who played in at least as many games as he did.

Playing on one of the league's hottest lines with scoring leader Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins certainly boosted Yamamoto's numbers. Fun fact: His scoring rate in the AHL in both 2018-19 (27 GP, 18 PTS, 0.67 PTS/GP) and 2019-20 (23 GP, 16 PTS, 0.70 PTS/GP) were lower than his scoring rate with the Oilers in 2019-20. Regardless, he appears to be a permanent fixture with the big club.

William Nylander

Nylander is an example of a player whose value could vary depending on the type of league you play in. I recently listed him as an option that you shouldn't overpay for in roto leagues because of his low peripherals. However, he was a top-30 option on this list with a consistency percentage of 64.7% (points in 44 of 68 games). Compare that to his holdout-shortened 2018-19 season, when his consistency percentage was just 33.3%. Not only fewer games, but also fewer points per game (0.50 PTS/GP).

Victor Olofsson

Usually rookies aren't known for their consistency. Yet Olofsson was just that in his rookie season, scoring in 33 of his 54 games for a 61.1% consistency percentage. This consistency was slightly higher than that of studs like Sidney Crosby, Sean Couturier, and Blake Wheeler. As far as Sabres who played at least ten games, only Jack Eichel had a better consistency percentage. Not surprisingly, Olofsson had the second-best points-per-game total (0.78 PTS/GP) on the team. We'll have to wait and see how the Taylor Hall addition affects Olofsson's value.

Fantasy Take: Hall Picks… Buffalo?

Jonathan Marchessault

Marchessault pulls in with a 60.6 consistency percentage in 2019-20. Among players that finished in the top 60 in this category (minimum 15 games played), Marchessault had the lowest points-per-game percentage (0.71 PTS/GP). This points-per-game percentage was similar to his 2018-19 total, although neither was anywhere close to his 2017-18 career high (0.97 PTS/GP). A low 5-on-5 shooting percentage of 7.1% also shows that he could be in for a small increase in production in 2020-21. Scoring at least 20 goals for four consecutive seasons, Marchessault will need to continue taking at least 200 shots for that to happen.

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Now here are some players that have low consistency percentage but a high points-per-game average relative to other players with a similar consistency percentage. This could be due to peaks and valleys in their scoring output (better known as being a streaky scorer), or perhaps even unsustainable production.

Oscar Klefbom

Klefbom posted a career-high 0.55 points per game, but only a 35.5 consistency percentage. That had a lot to do with 10 multipoint games combined with an 11-game slump without a point in late October/early November. Klefbom's consistency percentage was roughly the same as Darnell Nurse's, even though Nurse produced one fewer point in nine more games. Over the past three seasons, Klefbom has never reached 40%. That won't matter much in 2020-21, as he is expected to miss much or all of the season with a shoulder injury.

Andre Burakovsky

Burakovsky finished the 2019-20 season with 0.78 points per game but only a 48.3 consistency percentage. He recorded just 3 points in 13 games in December, but he also ran with four consecutive multipoint games in late January/early February (10 points over that span), as well as four consecutive multipoint games in November. His 17 points in 15 playoff games was due to a high (29%) shooting percentage. It's also worth mentioning that he had a 19.4 SH% in the regular season, but his points-per-game jump from 2018-19 to 2019-20 (0.33 PTS/GP to 0.78 PTS/GP) means that the regression may only be minor. He saw a major increase in icetime and power-play time upon joining the Avalanche from Washington.

Jonathan Toews

Toews recorded 0.86 points per game in 2019-20, but just a 51.4 consistency percentage. He was mired in a major slump to start season with just two points in his first 11 games. From there, he started to figure things out to the point where he was one of the league's hottest players in January with 13 points over a six-game span. The Blackhawks might appear to be on the verge of a rebuild given their uncertain goaltending situation, but they still have plenty of scoring options, which should help Toews' numbers remain decent. Having said that, Toews' 5-on-5 shooting percentage from 2019-20 was a bit high (10.9%). An improvement in his output given his age seems unlikely.

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Overall, I'm not ready to draw any major conclusions from consistency percentage, other than maybe to use it as a tool to identify volatility in a player's production. I could see this used in daily fantasy to determine the probability that a player will score a point in a game, and from there determine undervalued or overvalued players when constructing a roster. In season-long leagues that allow daily changes, that probability could also be applied in a situation when you need to decide between several players on your waiver wire in an attempt to win your weekly matchup late in the week. If nothing else, it's one of many stats available on the Frozen Tools website.

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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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