Ramblings: Season Update, Zuccarello Out, Top Frozen Tools Searches – Petersen, Pionk, Keller (Dec 5)

Ian Gooding

2020-12-05

A positive anything is always better than a negative nothing. That's why hockey fans should welcome the news that the NHL and NHLPA have discussed a mid-January start with either a 52-game or 56-game schedule. Training camps would start in early January, although the teams that didn't play in the postseason would be able to open training camp in late December.

There's all sorts of fantasy implications to that. For starters, I've mentioned multiple times that a condensed schedule (which will likely include a buffer for teams having to shut down due to outbreaks) would result in more starts for the #2 goalie and maybe even more use of a #3 goalie, assuming expanded rosters. A shortened schedule also means that any slumping player would have less time to make up ground or at least turn things around, while more players would be droppable with owners having less time to be patient.

Speaking of those outbreaks, you'll be able to relate if you played fantasy baseball this year or are currently playing fantasy football. Schedules will be subject to change, which means that any advantage from picking a certain team's players because of the number of games and/or quality of opponents could be thrown out the window immediately if a team has to go into quarantine. This could impact not only a team going into quarantine, but also its opponent. We've seen this in the past with occasional weather-related postponements (ie. snowstorms), but never with the potential frequency of COVID-19 spreading.

We have yet to see the NHL schedule, so it's possible that to minimize travel a team might play multiple games (like a series) in another team's building. Think of Vancouver going to Toronto, or vice-versa, in an all-Canadian division. However, teams could play a more round-robin schedule if mini-hubs are still needed because certain locations have banned indoor sports.

There are still a lot of unknowns here. At least it looks like the NHL and the PA are trying to work on those before getting to the elephant in the room – the money. Once something is officially announced, we will of course break it down for you as much as possible.

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If you were counting on Mats Zuccarello for your fantasy team, you'll need to start looking for another option. He won't be ready to start the season after undergoing right arm surgery. With a shortened season, Zuccarello probably shouldn't be counted on for a whole lot.

One look at the Wild depth chart on Frozen Tools and you'll see that the right wingers listed are… Zuccarello, Ryan Hartman, and that's it? I'll get behind that, though, because I also noticed this lack of depth at RW from another credible source. Not that I'd go running to him in fantasy leagues, but Hartman plays with a physical edge that could make him useful in bangers leagues. He has recorded between 69-74 PIM the past four seasons, as well as three seasons with 100+ hits.

There could be further adjustments to accommodate. Kevin Fiala is listed as a left wing, but he could move over to the right side. The Wild have a ton of centers, so someone like Nick Bjugstad could move into the top 6 if he moves over to the right side. The icetime (and power-play time) for someone like Jordan Greenway might also be worth watching.

I suppose this could also improve the odds that first-round pick Marco Rossi cracks the Wild roster, although he has been given permission to represent Austria in the World Juniors. With a hopeful season start of mid-January, Rossi would have enough time to return during training camp and at least audition for nine games (or shorter, given the shortened campaign).

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Here are the top Frozen Tools searches from the past week:

As I've done in previous weeks, I'll discuss three players of interest from here that I haven't discussed in previous weeks.

Calvin Petersen

Hey, some recent news on Petersen: He recently completed a degree in management consulting (LA Kings Insider). Now that he's got that out of the way, he can turn his attention to competing with Jonathan Quick for starts between the pipes for the Kings.

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Of course, the sunk cost of long-term contracts often determines who receives the majority of the starts. Thanks to the Kings' run of success in the early part of the 2010s, Quick will receive $5.8 million for three more seasons. Yet if Henrik Lundqvist can be bought out, then potentially so can Quick. The fact that Petersen started five of the Kings' last eight games (winning four of them) suggests that they will give him a long look in 2020-21.

Just how many starts will that be? That will be up to Todd McLellan. If you'd like to know what other fantasy owners think, this goaltending situation could end up being a dead heat. This according to the most recent Roos Let Loose poll, where Rick asked folks whether Quick or Petersen (among other goalies in potential timeshares) would start 60% of his team's games. A potentially condensed schedule could mean that this goalie situation turns out to be a 50/50 timeshare, regardless of whether one goalie outplays the other by a significant margin. Petersen, with his career 2.62 GAA and .924 SV% in 19 GP, will get his opportunity in 2020-21.   

Neal Pionk

It was easy for Jets fans to overlook the acquisition of Pionk when the team lost all of Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers, and Dustin Byfuglien in the 2019 offseason. Yet Pionk turned out to be a perfect fit on the Winnipeg first-unit power play, leading the entire Jets team and finishing tied for third among all NHL defensemen with his 25 power-play points. Among the 17 defensemen who were on the ice for at least 200 power-play minutes, Pionk finished with the highest PP IPP (86.2%). So when Pionk was on the ice when the Jets scored a power-play goal, there was an 86% chance that he recorded a point.

Interestingly enough, Josh Morrissey posted a 92.3 PP IPP mainly from the second power-play unit. Only one other defenseman (Ville Heinola) recorded a power-play point in 2019-20, and that was only a single point. I would have thought that the Jets had one of the top power-plays in the league with those IPPs, but it was actually middle of the pack (15th in NHL). That tells me how reliant the Jets are on both Pionk and Morrissey on their power-play units, although this number could easily regress for Pionk in particular.

Because of the power-play time, Pionk also led all Jets defensemen in overall icetime (23:23). He also shows increased value in bangers leagues, leading the Jets with 165 hits. So his value in pure points leagues is good, but his value in multicategory leagues is even better.

Clayton Keller

In my current auction dynasty (slow) draft, Keller did not generate much interest. Maybe that's due to some numbers that haven't wowed, even though he has proven to be a top-6 NHL forward. It could also be due to Keller playing on a Coyotes team that isn't exactly bursting at the seams with spectacular fantasy options. In fact, Keller appears to even be the strongest offensive force that the Coyotes have in their organization.

So why the indifference toward Keller? Because the Coyotes aren't stacked with offensive options, we don't drool over his upside in lining up with one or two of the league's top scorers. Keller's peripherals don't stand out either. He has scored fewer than 20 goals in back-to-back seasons. Over his three full NHL seasons, Keller has been a minus player, and he is light in hits and penalty minutes. It might be ironic that he's one of the top 10 Frozen Tools searches, but many unexpected names have appeared on the top 10 list.

So is there anything to look forward to with Keller? Well, he is entering his fourth season and breakout threshold with 237 career games played. He also showed well in the most recent postseason, scoring four goals and seven points in nine games. Keller also had a remarkably low secondary assist percentage (29.6%), which suggests that he could be due for more frequent assists in 2020-21. Looking at this further, the owner who eventually landed Keller for cheap might have gotten a steal. With a low price in my league and potentially in others, Keller could provide some bang for your buck.   

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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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