Top 10 Players Ranked Too High on Yahoo
Tom Collins
2020-12-07
For those yearning for the start of fantasy hockey, Yahoo has now opened their platform for mock drafts, with regular drafts starting this Thursday.
This is awesome news. I know many have been anxious for the start of fantasy hockey, and mock drafts can help you get a sense of what fantasy general managers are thinking.
When you do a draft through Yahoo, the default ranking is the experts' pre-season ranks. This is what Yahoo will use to autodraft your team if you don't pre-rank the players. Of course, no ranking is perfect. There are obviously players ranked too high and too low. This week, I wanted to concentrate on the players ranked too high.
As well, here's an annual reminder to not select Klas Dahlbeck. He's ranked 307th this year (ahead of Erik Cernak, Shayne Gostisbehere, Cam Fowler and Damon Severson), but is now in his third season of playing in the KHL and will probably never come back to the NHL. However, this didn't stop numerous fantasy GMs from drafting him last year. Make sure to include him on your do-not-draft list if doing your own pre-draft ranking.
10. Shea Theodore
Last year was the breakout campaign we've been hoping for from Theodore as he finally broke the 40-point barrier (he was on pace for 53) and was given an ample amount of time on the top power-play unit. Then in the offseason, the Knights signed Alex Pietrangelo to a six-year deal at $8.8 million per season, and you know he's going to eat into some of Theodore's minutes. If I felt I had to take a defenseman in that spot (86th overall), I'd be more inclined to go with Thomas Chabot or Neal Pionk, or maybe even a defenseman who will help more in the banger categories.
Kucherov should absolutely be taken in the first round. However, his current rank of first overall is a smidgeon too high. He shouldn't be taken before Connor McDavid or Nathan MacKinnon, and I'd be willing to listen to arguments that Leon Draisaitl, Alexander Ovechkin and Artemi Panarin should be drafted ahead of Kucherov as well. That means instead of going first overall, he should arguably be selected sixth. The only thing Kucherov has going for him above these other players is plus/minus, which is a fickle stat and shouldn't be considered when deciding the first overall pick.
8. Mark Stone
Stone is one of the smartest players in the league, but there's no way he should be ranked 26th overall (and sixth-highest right winger). He's a bit of a Band-Aid boy who has never reached 200 shots in a season and has never averaged a hit per game. That means you're counting on a healthy, highly-productive season to justify selecting him in this slot. I'd be more comfortable with a right winger such as Jake Guentzel, Matthew Tkachuk and Patrik Laine, who are ranked slightly lower but can be more productive but also contribute with higher shots and hits totals.
7. Most rookies
It's usually a smart idea to stay away from rookies in one-year leagues as they tend to underproduce in one-year leagues compared to veterans ranked around the same draft slot. Think of the disappointed fantasy general managers last season who reached for Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko, the top two rookies drafted in most leagues. Sure, sometimes it works out, in the case of Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, but more often than not, you're better off waiting until the regular season begins and picking up rookies who are on hot streaks. Chances are last year, players such as Victor Olofsson, Kailer Yamamoto, Dominik Kubalik, Nick Suzuki and Adam Fox were on the waiver wire in your pool. Kirill Kaprizov is currently the top-ranked rookie at 110th, ahead of Alex DeBrincat, Jonathan Toews and Sean Monahan, but it's much more likely the rookie underperforms against all three of them. Alexis Lafreniere is ranked 130th, Joel Kiviranta is 197th and Nicholas Robertson is 200th. All of these rookies are listed ahead of Jason Zucker, Kasperi Kapanen, Anthony Beauvillier and Jonathan Drouin. Except for of Lafreniere, going with the veterans is the smarter play.
6. Phil Kessel
Each year, there are a couple of players who are ranked too high due to an inflated projected stat. Last year, Devan Dubnyk was the main one, as they projected 44 wins for the then-Wild netminder. Kessel was another one, as Yahoo projected 84 points and 40 power-play points for his first year in Arizona. This year is another high projection at 32 power-play points. By comparison, Kessel had 38 total points last year. Kessel is someone I would strongly advise staying away from unless you can get him late. His shot total has been declining for years, his ice time is at 17 minutes a game, Arizona is a mess, he doesn't hit and should probably have an awful plus/minus. Even with an experts' rank of 177, that's still too high.
Yes, the Rangers netminder will be a great choice in keeper pools, but how comfortable are you that he can be the fourth-best netminder this year? Would you take him ahead of Carter Hart, Tuukka Rask and Frederik Andersen? Even if Shesterkin can surprise critics, it's not like the Rangers will be a powerhouse team that is guaranteed a playoff spot. If you're drafting a netminder early, you want to focus on those who will get plenty of starts and be dominant. If not, you're better off waiting. In one league last year, I was able to snag Connor Hellebuyck in the sixth round (the 13th netminder chosen) while Jacob Markstrom went in the 11th round (27th goalie chosen).
Bergeron is ranked 35th overall, which is too high for many reasons. To start, it's a lot easier to get centres later in the draft, so don't worry about taking a centre early in the third round unless he is elite. Then there's the concern about Bergeron's health. In the past three seasons, he's missed nine, 17 and 18 games. Then there's the worry about Brad Marchand's and David Pastrnak's health. Pastrnak won't be in the lineup until mid-February and Marchand in mid-January (which means he would potentially miss all of training camp). There's also apprehension about the power-play, which has been ranked in the top four in each of the past three seasons. With two top players injured and the top power-play defensemen (Torey Krug) moving to St. Louis, this power-play should see a decline.
3. Brock Boeser
Boeser would be a fine pick in the 80-100 slot, but not at 45th overall. There are simply too many things working against him. He's usually good to miss at least 10 games a season, and his points-per-game mark has decreased each year since his 2017-18 rookie campaign. He doesn't shoot the puck enough and he doesn't hit. To justify selecting him so high, you have to hope he stays healthy and dominates in points. His teammate J.T. Miller would be a much better option (expected to outperform Boeser in every category) and is available a few slots behind.
Unless Fleury is dealt or Robin Lehner is injured, it doesn't look possible that Fleury could be a top-10 fantasy netminder this season. However, Yahoo has Fleury ranked as the 10th-highest netminder. For the record, Lehner is third-highest, which might be a little high for him as well, depending on how the coaches decide to split games between the two. For now, Fleury is ahead of Jordan Binnington, Frederik Andersen, Jacob Markstrom and Tristan Jarry, all of whom are bona fide number one guys on their respective squads.
Olofsson looked awesome last year playing alongside Jack Eichel on the top line, but should be demoted to the second line this year to play alongside the 36-year-old Eric Staal. With all due respect to Staal, that's a significant downgrade. This is all due to the signing of Taylor Hall, who is expected to take over Olofsson's spot on the top line. Remember, Olofsson doesn't contribute much in shots, PIM, plus/minus, hits, faceoffs won or blocked shots. That means you're banking on him for points and power-play points. With such a downgrade in linemates, you can't trust him enough in those categories to justify an almost top-100 ranking (he's ranked 108th).