Wild West: Contract Clauses – Part Two

Grant Campbell

2020-12-07

This week we will look at Dallas, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Minnesota and Nashville and look at the players that have an NMC, NTC or M-NTC and see how this might influence each team moving forward.

Dallas

Tyler Seguin – Has an NMC with seven years remaining at $9.85 million AAV. If Seguin can get back to a point per game, this deal will only be problematic in four to five seasons rather than two to three if he doesn't.

Jamie Benn – Has an NMC with five years remaining at $9.5 million AAV. It's hard to believe that Benn finished second in the league in scoring in 2015-16 with 89 points and over his past 147 games has 0.63 pts/game. At 31 years of age, this contract is already an issue that might be an absolute anchor in three to four years.

Joe Pavelski – Has an NMC with two years remaining at $7 million AAV. Pavelski struggled in the regular season but co-led the NHL in goals in the playoffs with 13. At 36-years old the Stars overpaid to get one or two productive seasons from Pavelski and anything more would be gravy. The cap hit in year three is more an issue than Pavelski's play by that point.

Alexander Radulov – Has an NMC and M-NTC with two years remaining at $6.25 million AAV with the ability to submit a 15-team no-trade list. The Stars will still have a market if they wish to move Radulov in theory, but at 34-years old and with declining production and with his salary, the reality might be different.

Andrew Cogliano – Has an M-NTC in his last year of a $3.25 million contract in which he can submit a six-team no-trade list. With three goals in 68 games last season, the Stars might be able to move Cogliano at the deadline if they wish, but more than likely will keep him as they should be in the hunt again.

Ben Bishop – Has an NMC and an M-NTC with three years remaining with just under $4.92 million AAV in which he can submit a 10-team no-trade list. Bishop battled injury last season and lost his starting role in the playoffs as the Stars went all the way to the finals. At 34-years old, he and Khudobin both have clauses for the next three seasons that will effectively prevent Jake Oettinger from getting into the NHL regularly unless either gets injured. I'd expect something to change to allow Oettinger a spot in that time frame.

Anton Khudobin – Has an M-NTC with three years remaining at $3.33 million AAV where he can submit a four-team no-trade list. Imagine being a team on that list? I don't even want to guess which four teams he has listed. His stellar play in the bubble is an extension of his last two regular seasons of 15.77 and 17.75 GSAA (goals saved above average), but does he have a third, fourth and fifth season at those levels in him? Probably not.

Jim Nill has put a lot of long-term faith in six players who will all be well into their thirties (save Seguin) in the next season or two. The cap crunch will be an issue as early as 2021-22 when the Stars will need to re-sign Miro Heiskanen and these contracts will have some regret by then which will only increase each season.

Edmonton

Kris Russell – has an NMC and an N-MTC in the last year of his current deal at $4 million AAV where he can submit a 15-team trade list. He is under contract in 2021-22 at $1.25 million with no clauses. Russell is now 33-years old and has gone from a top-four to a top-six defenseman over the past season, where he battled injury missing about 15 games. Russell's value is mostly only with the penalty kill these days and even there his shot blocks have gone from about 2.8/game to under 2/game for the first time since 2012-13. Russell's clause is an example of a GM preferring a player having a no-trade list as compared to a trade list. This deal will be hard to move.

Mikko Koskinen – has an M-NTC with two years remaining at $4.5 million AAV where he can submit a 15-team no-trade list. I found it pretty surprising that Edmonton re-signed Koskinen to a three-year deal after he struggled to a -6.21 GSAA as a 31-year old rookie in 2018-19. On top of overpaying Koskinen, they also threw in the clause that hinders the Oilers from getting market value if they choose to trade him. To be fair to Koskinen he did play much better in 2019-20 and was 9.25 GSAA but shared time in net with Mike Smith and wasn't the starting playoff goalie in game one.

Mike Smith – has an NTC on a one-year deal at $1.5 million. Was there this much demand for Smith's services that Edmonton had to give him this clause? More than likely just a reward for a veteran player or the team is seeing something in his play that most people aren't. At 38-years old, it was a little shocking that the team brought Smith back at all.

Either the Oilers are very hesitant to give out no-trade clauses to the top players or those players are reluctant to have them while in Edmonton? Either way, surprisingly, Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl don't have them. Ken Holland will have plenty of flexibility on the trading scene for the foreseeable future, albeit with no cap space next season.

Los Angeles

Anze Kopitar – has an M-NTC with four years remaining on his contract at $10 million AAV. Beginning in 2020-21 he can submit a list of seven teams he can be traded to which limits the King's options quite substantially if the play of Kopitar falls off in year three or four. At 33-years old, Kopitar is still the best player on this team and should be for the next two or three seasons, so will only be going somewhere if he asks.

Dustin Brown – has an M-NTC with two years remaining at $5.875 million AAV that allows him to submit a list of seven teams he can't be traded to. For the first three seasons of Brown's eight-year deal beginning in 2014-15, he forgot he was a 20-goal scorer and had his captaincy removed and given to Kopitar before the 2016-17 season. His play over the past three seasons has turned what was looking like a nightmare contract into just a bad one. While the Kings should look to move him while they can get a decent return, this year or next, his clause won't adversely affect the dealings, but his diminishing play and salary might.

Drew Doughty – has an NMC with seven years remaining on his contract at $11 million AAV. What could go wrong here? The Kings extended Doughty for eight more years on July 1st, 2018 after Doughty had a great year with 10 goals and 60 points while being 28-years old. He still had one year left on his existing contract for 2018-19, so the Kings didn't need to extend him but decided that they were going to keep a core player until the age of 37 years old.

The problem with the extension is that the Kings were not a good team, nor would they be for a few seasons, and currently have entered a re-build. The team is now stuck with an overpriced contract for the next seven years and even if Doughty waives his NMC, it will be something similar to what Oliver Ekman-Larsson has done in Arizona.

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The Kings have one of the better prospect pools in the NHL but are still three to five years away from competing again and imagine the picks or prospects they could have added if they had chosen to move Doughty instead of extending him? Easier said than done of course as the Kings still need to sell tickets and put a competitive team on the ice each night.

Minnesota

Zach Parise – has an NMC with five years remaining on his contract at just over $7.5 million AAV. At 36 years of age now, it is unlikely he sees the end of this contract as a 'healthy' player. If Parise can even score 20 goals or more in the next three of the five years remaining the Wild have to consider that a win. I hope the NHL puts a little more bite into the LTIR loophole at the end of these types of contracts, as these deals should still count against the cap in years four or five for any team that signs these.

Mats Zuccarello – has an NMC with four years remaining on his contract at $6 million AAV. Why? It sounds like Zuccarello will be on LTIR for most of next season, so the Wild should go from very little cap space to quite a bit next year. Still, this is a perplexing contract for a player that is currently 33-years old and injured.

Marcus Johansson – has an M-NTC in the last year of his deal for $4.5 million that allows Johansson to submit a no-trade list of 10 teams. It is surprising Minnesota wasn't on his original list when this contract was signed in Buffalo. Johansson has a very good opportunity to play top-four minutes at center if the Wild stand pat with the players they have now.

Jared Spurgeon – has an NMC with seven seasons remaining at $7.575 million AAV. See Drew Doughty above. Spurgeon is a fine player and will continue to be a fine player for the next two to four seasons, but what do the Wild do with this contract in four or five years when Spurgeon is 35 or 36 years old and no longer the player he is today? He is not Ryan Suter and this contract will be a problem for Minnesota at some point.

Ryan Suter – has an NMC with five seasons remaining at just over $7.5 million AAV where he will be 40 years old at the end of the deal. Much like the Parise deal, the Wild are banking on a player to be retired or LTIR before it gets to the severely declined years of these deals. With Suter, it could be two or three years from now at the age of 37 or 38.

Jonas Brodin – has an NMC with one year remaining at just under $4.2 million on his existing contract and in the first four years of his seven-year deal at $6 million AAV beginning in 2021-22. Brodin is a good defender that is 27-years old and is coming off a career-high of 28 points. Points are not his forte, but even as fine a defender as Brodin is and should be for the next four or five seasons, this contract has all the makings of being a problem for the Wild sooner than later over the next eight years.

Is there a player over 30 on the Wild that doesn't have an NMC? Yes, three, Nick Bonino, Cam Talbot and Alex Stalock. This is a deluded management team that thinks they are much closer to being a Stanley Cup contender than the reality of a team that is going to struggle to even make the playoffs (even with Kirill Kaprizov). The Spurgeon and Brodin signings are prime examples of their misguided roster planning.

Nashville

Roman Josi – has an NMC with eight years remaining at just over $9 million AAV. Josi will finish this contract at 38 years old. I make small exceptions for contracts like Josi's because the Predators will have one of the top five defensemen in the NHL on their roster for the next three or four seasons and will pay eight years for that. It is a gamble that Nashville had to take as their team still has an outside chance to compete for the Stanley Cup (but it is closing rapidly if not closed) and Josi is the key to that. The difference between Doughty and Josi is simply the prospect of team success not being there for the Kings in the short-term. Franchises are lucky to see a Roman Josi once every thirty or forty years and if you still think you can win you don't let that player go. Will this contract be an issue in five or six years? More than likely.

Pekka Rinne – has an NMC, M-NTC in the last year of a $5 million contract that allows him to submit a 10-team trade list. Now 38-years old, Rinne saw a large drop off in play last season as his GSAA fell from 12.50 in 2018-19 to -14.22 last year as he became a 1B starter and will be a backup next season. Perhaps he has one year in him to improve upon last season, but his market value will be minimal, with or without a clause.

With Ryan Johansen, Matt Duchene, Filip Forsberg and Ryan Ellis on the roster it is surprising to not see one or more of them with any trade clauses. The Predators are in pretty good shape moving forward concerning their current contracts.

Next week, we will look at San Jose, St. Louis, Vancouver, Vegas and Winnipeg.

Thanks for reading and let me know if you want me to focus on any players or topics by messaging me below or following me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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