Wild West: Contract Clauses – Part Three

Grant Campbell

2020-12-14

This week we will look at San Jose, St. Louis, and Vancouver, Vegas and Winnipeg and look at the players that have an NMC, NTC or M-NTC and see how this might influence each team moving forward. Another important aspect to the NMC is that the teams need to protect these players in the upcoming expansion draft for the Seattle Kraken and this might have ramifications for other players on the team's rosters that might need to be left unprotected.

San Jose

Logan Couture – Has an M-NTC that allows him to submit a list of three teams he can be traded to for the remaining seven years of his $8 million AAV contract. At 31 years of age, this contract and clause is and will be very limiting to management and will be an issue in three to four seasons.

Evander Kane – Has an M-NTC that allows him to submit a three-team trade list for the remaining five seasons at $7 million AAV. Once one player has a pretty good clause, other players will demand similar deals and that is what has happened in San Jose. Kane is 29-years old and should be productive in at least three or four of the years remaining on this deal.

Tomas Hertl – Has an M-NTC that allows him to submit a three-team trade list for the last two seasons of his contract with a $5.625 million AAV. Hertl is 27-years old and will be unrestricted at the end of 2021-22 if the Sharks don't extend him before then. The Sharks are going to have cap issues every year for the next four or five, so extending Hertl will not be easy.

Erik Karlsson – Has an NMC for the remaining seven years on his $11.5 million AAV contract. He is now 30 years old and will be 37 years old when the contract expires. Karlsson has the lower body of a 45-year old so I'm not sure how this deal will play out. I'm sure the Sharks will be over the moon if Karlsson can play 60 plus games in at least five of those seven years remaining.

Brent Burns – Has an M-NTC for the remaining five years on his $8 million AAV contract that allows him like most Sharks, to submit a list of three teams he can be traded to. He is 35-years old and his contract will expire when he is 40-years old. Last season's drop off both offensively and defensively for Burns must be very concerning for Sharks management and this upcoming 56-game schedule will be very telling for the last four years of this deal and whether the Sharks will be looking at a few years of sub-par contract space.

Marc-Edouard Vlasic – Has an NMC for the next three seasons of his $7 million AAV contract and an M-NTC like the rest of the Shark players that allows him to submit a three-team no-trade list for the last three years of the six years remaining. At 33-years old, his contract will expire when he is 39-years old and this extension, in salary and term alone is baffling, but throw in the clauses and it is an outright mistake that will haunt this team for the next five or six years.

Martin Jones – Has an M-NTC on the remaining four seasons of his $5.75 million contract that allows him to submit a list of three teams he can be traded to. With his diminishing play this clause, most likely won't come into play because not many teams would want Jones at the salary and term he has. The Sharks are more than likely stuck with this contract for the duration with very little hope that Jones digs himself out of his below-average play of the past two seasons.

Devan Dubnyk – Has an M-NTC that allows him to submit a 10-team no-trade list in the final year of his contract at $2.5 million of which the Sharks are paying $2.16 million. Dubnyk was brought in to bolster Martin Jones and hopefully turn the fortunes of the Sharks lacklustre goaltending of the past two seasons. At 34-years old and coming off a struggling 2019-20 season, Dubnyk is hardly a lock to accomplish that feat.

Doug Wilson has essentially handed out seven no-trade clauses to players on the roster. Of those seven, six are for four years or more and five of the seven are already over 30-years old. Collectively, these contracts are going to be a huge issue for this team for the next seven years. The saving grace for this team going into next season is that the schedule will most likely be 56 games and that is beneficial for this roster rather than the usual 82 games.

St. Louis

Brayden Schenn – Has a full NTC for the first five seasons of his eight-year $6.5 million AAV contract, with the final three seasons having an M-NTC that allows Schenn to submit a 15-team no-trade list. As we have seen throughout this exercise of looking at clauses and long-term contracts given to players around 30-years of age is that they are rarely a good thing for the teams in the last two to four years of the contracts. Schenn is no different as he is currently 29-years old and will be 37-years old when this deal is done, it is very risky to think that he will be the player he is today in even three to four years. At least the Blues have a reasonable M-NTC that kicks in at the age of 34, but by then it might be too late.

Jaden Schwartz – Has an M-NTC on the final year of his $5.35 million contract that allows him to submit a 15-team no-trade list. Schwarts will become an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season unless the Blues extend him. He is 28-years old and clubs need to be very wary of giving six to eight-year deals for what I would respectively classify as Tier two players like Schwartz. The Blues will never get better value for Schwartz than now, but this is a team that is still very much in their window of winning, so moving on from Schwartz is a step backwards for the short-term. These are the tough decisions that Doug Armstrong will need to make as the Blues might be on the hook for three or four years of a bad contract if they re-sign.

Tyler Bozak – Has an M-NTC on the final year of his $5 million contract that allows him to submit a 10-team no-trade list. Depending on the fortunes of the team this year, the Blues will more than likely keep Bozak (34-years old) for the duration of the season and probably not bring him back, unless the term was for one or two seasons at around $2 or $3 million AAV.

David Perron – Has an M-NTC on the final two seasons of his $4 million AAV contract that allows him to submit a 5-team no-trade list. This is a very open clause for the Blues to try to trade Perron and they probably have no interest in doing so anyway this season at least as the salary and term are very attractive to any team. At 32-years of age, Perron needs to put two more seasons together like last season or the Blues will likely move on at the end of the deal.

Justin Faulk – Has an NTC for the seven years remaining on his $6.5 million AAV contract. He is 28-years old and the deal will expire when he is 35-years old. In the last two years of the deal, the clause moves to an M-NTC that allows him to submit a 15-team no-trade list. I haven't been kind to this deal before and I'm not about to begin to be now. With seven years remaining, this deal is a mistake now and will continue to be more of one each season for the duration.

Torey Krug – Has an identical deal with the same clauses, term and salary as Justin Faulk, but Krug will be 36-years old when the deal expires. What makes one deal horrible and the other a reasonable one is about 30 or 40 points per season for the next four or five years. If Faulk was a much superior defender than Krug, that difference would be a little easier to digest, but he is only marginally better than Krug in that regard. This is not to say that Krug will continue to put up the same numbers for the next seven seasons, as he is very unlikely to and this deal is very risky from year four on, but Krug's production while the Blues are in their current window is what is the most important for the next three or four seasons.

Marco Scandella – Has an M-NTC for the four years remaining on his $3.275 million AAV contract that allows Scandella to submit a seven-team no-trade list. The clause is not limiting the Blues very much, but the question remains why the Blues would give a third-pairing defenseman who averages just over 17 minutes per game a clause at all? At 30-years of age, the term and salary are open to being questioned from year one to four of this deal.

Carl Gunnarsson – Has an M-NTC for this season on his $1.75 million contract that allows him to submit a five-team no-trade list. At 34-years of age, Gunnarsson has played a total of 61 regular-season games over the past two seasons and averages just under 16 minutes per game so the clause is more a small reward for his six seasons in St. Louis rather than an impediment on the Blues management.

Vladimir Tarasenko – Has a full NTC for the three years remaining on his $7.5 million AAV contract. The Blues will be able to use the LTIR for most of this upcoming season, but the team is still right up against the salary cap in 2020-21 even with that relief. Seeing Tarasenko try to return from the shoulder injury that kept him out of the lineup for over 60 games in the regular season only to re-injure it in the bubble is very concerning going forward. Only time will tell if Tarasenko will be able to return and play at the level he was, but he was deserving of this deal at the time. At 29-years old the injury might make the Blues question his status at the end of the three seasons.

Alexander Steen – Has a full NTC for the final season of his $5.75 million contract. This is a lot of contract space for the Blues to be tied up with next season with little alternative. Currently, Steen is in LTIR but how long he remains there we will see.

The Blues are currently over the salary cap, with just over $13 million in LTIR with Tarasenko and Steen and Vince Dunn remains unsigned, so there is no doubt that someone will need to be moved from the roster. There is little alternative to someone from the list from above-being part of that solution and the most likely are Tyler Bozak or Jaden Schwartz with Schwartz being the biggest blow to the roster.

Vancouver

Loui Eriksson – has an M-NTC that kicks in this season that allows him to submit a 15-team no-trade list on his final two seasons of his $6 million AAV contract. I don't think the clause will be the determining factor in trading Eriksson or not. His age, declined play and high salary will do that. At least only two years are remaining as this has been an albatross of a contract for four years already. The Canucks will need to include a high draft pick or a good prospect and I'm not sure that is worth it to move Eriksson and his contract.

Brandon Sutter – Has an M-NTC that allows him to submit a 15-team no-trade list for the final year of his $4.375 million contract. Being the final year of this deal, I think the Canucks might find a suitable trading partner if they retain some salary, but I think there is little doubt that he will be moved by the trade deadline.

Micheal Ferland – Has an NMC for the remaining three seasons of his $3.5 million AAV contract. We will see if Ferland is healthy enough to play for the duration or will LTIR be the unfortunate destination for him? I feel bad for Ferland as we haven't seen him in enough games to make a clear determination but some would argue (and perhaps rightly) that the term and clause were too much for even a healthy Ferland.

Antoine Roussel – Has an M-NTC that allows him to submit an eight-team no-trade list this season and a five-team no-trade list next season on his $3 million AAV contract with two years remaining. I think the Canucks will look to move Roussel this year or next and much like Eriksson it won't be the clause limiting them, it will be age, declining play and salary. He did battle injury for most of last season, but his inconsistency is more an issue than being injured.

Jay Beagle – Has an M-NTC that allows him to submit a five-team no-trade list for this season and next for his remaining two seasons at $3 million AAV. At 35-years of age, he will struggle to live up to even half his salary for the next two seasons. He is great on faceoffs and an excellent penalty killer but gets buried in his end at five on five much too often and his offensive skills are way too limited for a player earning what he is. If the Canucks don't move him this year or next he will be passed on the depth charts from within.

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Alex Edler – He has an NMC for the final year of his $6 million year contract. Edler has refused to waive his NMC before and prefers to stay with the team, but we could be looking at his final year in Vancouver at the age of 34 unless he signs for less salary and will agree to a one-year deal. From the outside, I'm sure his stats look healthy and he is still averaging 46-50 point pace over the past two seasons. Watching him every game though, you can see that he has lost an additional step and the pace of the NHL has passed him in the open ice. He is still a very effective passer and penalty killer and very good in front of his net, so he's not done yet.

Tyler Myers – Has an M-NTC that allows him to submit a 10-team no-trade list for the remaining four years of his $6 million AAV contract. At 30-years of age, Myers will be 34 when the deal is done and there is a good chance the Canucks will leave him unprotected for the Seattle expansion draft before 2021-22. Myers’s first season in Vancouver was underwhelming from an offensive standpoint but other than a few defensive deficiencies, his overall game was definitely in their top four and he is a valuable piece for the backend. I do think the Canucks would move him in year three or four if they don't lose him in the expansion draft.

Nate Schmidt – Has an M-NTC that allows him to submit a 10-team no-trade list for the remaining five years of his $5.95 million AAV contract. At 29-years old the contract will take him to 34 years of age and while the Canucks are excited to have him for only a 3rd round pick, they might look to move on when Schmidt is 33 or 34.

Braden Holtby – Has an M-NTC that allows him to submit a four-team no-trade list for the two years on his $4.3 million AAV contract with the Canucks. Another player that the Canucks would leave unprotected in the expansion draft, Holtby might only see one season in Vancouver if Seattle sees him as an option. Other than that the Canucks will surely look to move him at some point in year two if Mike Dipietro is close to being ready and Thatcher Demko is playing well.

On the surface, Vancouver looks like it has quite a few clauses but they are mostly short-term and not limiting for the Canucks to move on from if they wish to. It will be the next big contracts that the Canucks will need to negotiate with J.T. Miller and Bo Horvat will be in the problematic negotiation period where both players will be 28 and 30 and looking for long-term contracts as unrestricted free agents in 2023-24. Until then, the keys are Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes and Thatcher Demko next year as restricted free agents.

Vegas

Mark Stone – Has an NMC for the remaining seven years of his $9.5 million AAV contract. At 28-years of age, Stone is still at the top of his game but in years five to seven this might be a contract that the Golden Knights regret as they will have cap issues every year from here on.

Max Pacioretty – Has an M-NTC that allows him to submit a 10-team no-trade list on the remaining three seasons on his $7 million AAV contract. At 32-years of age, the rumours are already starting that Vegas might be looking to move Pacioretty to help them with their cap woes this season. He is coming off of one of his best seasons in the NHL, so it is a little surprising that the team might not wait until year two or three.

William Karlsson – Has an M-NTC that kicks in this season for the remaining seven years of his $5.9 million AAV contract that allows him to submit a 10-team no-trade list. Karlsson will turn 28-years old when next season starts and will be 34-years old when the contract expires. He is probably a safer bet than most as long as people don't see the 43-goal Karlsson and accept the 20-goal and 55-point Karlsson as the bar he should be judged on. Even then the last three years of this deal have diminishing returns.

Reilly Smith – Has an M-NTC that allows him to submit an eight-team no-trade list on the remaining two years of his $5 million AAV contract. Smith is still only 29 years of age and has had three pretty decent years in Vegas, so it is not a stretch to have them extend him before he becomes unrestricted at the end of 2021-22. On the flip side, if the team is rumoured to be looking to move Pacioretty, it makes sense that Smith's name will surface as well.

Jonathan Marchessault – Has four years remaining on his current contract with a $5 million AAV with years one and two having an M-NTC that has him submitting an eight-team no-trade list and then years three and four submitting a five-team no-trade list. Marchessault is 29-years of age and will be 33 when this deal expires but with the salary cap issues in Vegas the team likely looks to move him in year three or four.

Alex Pietrangelo – Has a full NMC for the seven-year $8.8 million AAV salary that he signed in Vegas this summer. At 30 years of age Pietrangelo will be 37-years old at the end of the contract and is likely only going to be productive for the next four or five seasons, so years five to seven might be considered gravy or dead weight depending on your standpoint at the time.

Marc-Andre Fleury – Has an M-NTC that allows him to submit a 10-team no-trade list for the two years remaining on his $7 million AAV contract. During the playoffs, it didn't look good for the relationship with Vegas and Fleury when the team elected to play Robin Lehner and then when the team re-signed Lehner to a five-year contract it didn’t bode well for the prospects of Fleury in Vegas over the next two seasons.

Robin Lehner – Lehner re-signed in Vegas for five more seasons at $5 million AAV with an M-NTC for the first three seasons where he can submit an eight-team no-trade list for seasons one to three and a five-team no-trade list for four and five. Lehner has become the clear favorite in Vegas and should benefit from the 56-game scheduled for next season as his career-high is 53 games and he has been a career backup or a 1B in every stop he has had in his career. After three successive one-year contracts, the multi-year deal for Lehner is much deserved and he should be able to see it through at a high level until its expiry when he will be 34-years old.

Vegas has some pretty severe salary cap issues over the next one to three years and a few of the players listed above will need to be moved. Most of the clauses that their players have won't be a problem for Vegas to move any of them.

Winnipeg

Blake Wheeler – Has an NMC for the remaining four seasons of his $8.5 million AAV contract. Wheeler is 34-years old and caused a little concern that his decline might be happening sooner than later for the first 20 games of last season when he only had 12 points and was struggling. He managed to get back on track and finished with 65 points in 71 games but there was enough smoke to worry about the balance of his contract and think that there might be some very diminished value in years three and four when he is 36 and 37 years old.

Paul Stastny – Has an M-NTC on the last year of his $6.5 million salary that lets him submit a 10-team no-trade list. The Jets brought Stastny back for a purpose this season and will keep him for this season unless the wheels come off drastically in Winnipeg or Stastny isn't the same player at 34 years old.

Mark Scheifele – Beginning this season Scheifele can submit a 10-team no-trade list for the last four seasons of his $6.125 million AAV contract. Scheifele is still only 27-years old and should provide great value for the duration of this contract in which he will become an unrestricted free agent at the end of it.

Mathieu Perreault – Has an M-NTC that allows him to submit a five-team no-trade list in the last year of his $4.125 million contract. At 32-years of age, Perreault struggled last season and his performance, age and salary will be difficult to move regardless of the clause.

Dylan Demelo – Has an M-NTC that allows him to submit a six-team no-trade list for the $3 million AAV over four years that the Jets rewarded Demelo's 10 games in 2019-20. When your defence is as barren as the Winnipeg backend, I guess you sign effective players like Demelo to these types of contracts and give term, salary and a limited protective clause to woo them. He is only 27-years of age and should be able to play at his current level until he is 31.

Bryan Little – He is in year three of a six-year $5.291 million AAV contract that going forward allows him to submit a 14-team no-trade list. This might be all for not as Little played seven games last year and might remain on LTIR for next season and from there, his status remains uncertain.

The Jets are fairly well-positioned for clauses going forward outside of the Wheeler contract and perhaps Demelo, but will still be having issues with their salary cap this year and next.

A bad contract is a bad contract, but add in a bad clause and it is like pouring gasoline on an out of control forest fire. NHL GMs can be their own worst enemy sometimes and should do everything in their power to avoid the NMC or full NTCs or even the three-team trade lists to players that aren't superstars.

Thanks for reading and let me know if you want me to focus on any players or topics by messaging me below or following me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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