Ramblings: Rookies with potential to move up in 2021 including Tomasino, Smith, Zegras, and more – December 17
Michael Clifford
2020-12-17
We are four weeks from the supposed start of the regular season and there isn't much hope we get clarity on what that will look like anytime soon. It isn't expected a deal is reached this week, which then gets them to Christmas week without a deal and the season three weeks away. Even Gary Bettman admitted that they're not sure they'll even be able to play in each team's home arena, saying they're still considering bubble cities.
January 13th creeps ever closer.
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In more uplifting news:
News: Every game of the 2021 WJC will be available on the NHL Network, the NHL has announced.
— Mark Scheig (@markscheig) December 16, 2020
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The Wild announced the signing of goalie Andrew Hammond and that Alex Stalock was injured indefinitely. Cam Talbot is still the surefire starter, but Kaapo Kahkonen just became a whole lot more interesting because it appears he’ll at least be the backup this year.
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The rest of these Ramblings will largely discuss rookies and their potential roles for the 2021 season. There is one rookie we definitely won’t be relying on, though:
<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet” data-partner=”tweetdeck”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>Philip Broberg will return to Sweden after world juniors and won't be at Oiler camp, but will rejoin either Oilers or Bakersfield after Skelleftea season ends.</p>— Jim Matheson (@jimmathesonnhl) <a href=”https://twitter.com/jimmathesonnhl/status/1339256138840207360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>December 16, 2020</a></blockquote>
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With Klefbom likely out for the year, or a good chunk of it, I thought Broberg might be able to latch on to the third pair this season. It appears, though, that he will not be a factor for at least half the season.
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There was an article over at The Athletic a couple days ago from Jesse Granger that was basically just a catch-up chat with Max Pacioretty. The conversation turned to Cody Glass and I was honestly stunned by the platitudes that Pacioretty was laying on the prospect. Which isn't to say I expected him to trash or denigrate him, I just expected canned answers like, "he has a good future ahead of him" and all that. While the typical hockey niceties were there – they are in almost every hockey interview – it almost seemed as if Pacioretty was campaigning for Glass to be his centre. There are direct quotes like: "You guys know I've always been a big fan of Glass"; "I think so highly of this kid"; "I think he's an amazing player, especially on the power play"; "he brings a whole other element to our power play". I have read enough player interviews to know when a player has almost no idea who a prospect is/what he's capable of, and when a player sees something in the prospect. This situation is the latter.
All this got me thinking about Glass, the second-line situation in Vegas, and about rookies in general. Chandler Stephenson has proven himself a valuable asset for Vegas, but does he have a firm grip on the second-line role? Are there other spots in the league where there's room for a rookie, with solid play, to move up the lineup? Well, let's take a look. For now, we'll hold off on some more obvious guys – I should hope everyone is aware that Kirill Kaprizov and Alexis Lafrenière could end up on their respective first lines. These aren't in any particular order and believe me, if a prospect from your favourite team isn't listed, it's because I hate his guts and yours.
Cam talked about a couple of these guys in his Ramblings yesterday so for a better perspective, give it a read.
I truly believe that Veleno may be the lynchpin to the entire rebuild of the Red Wings. They have, or are growing, their prospect depth in a lot of spots except for centre. Beyond Dylan Larkin, there's not much the team can hang its hat on down the middle moving forward. Joe Veleno turning into a legitimate middle-six centre would solve a lot of problems for the Red Wings down the line, like having to go out and sign players like Frans Nielsen. I know for some reason it feels like he's been around forever, but Veleno's still 20 years old and doesn't turn 21 until next month.
While both Tomasino and Eeli Tolvanen are being looked to for the Preds, and probably sooner rather than later, offseason reports seem to indicate that Tomasino is ahead of Tolvanen. The real question is how he will be used, because reports from a few months ago seem to point to Tomasino sliding in as basically the third-line centre. I don't expect that Ryan Johansen will be moving from centre anytime soon, but Matt Duchene could be moved to a wing spot where he takes face-offs, something like Joe Pavelski in San Jose a couple years ago. The Preds believe they're still in their window so I believe that they'll use anyone anywhere they feel the player can help the team.
This one is pretty obvious but with Jacob Markstrom gone, the net is somewhat available for Demko. Now, the Canucks signed Braden Holtby despite Holtby being 31 and having three straight average-to-terrible seasons, so that muddles things a bit. But this team believes their window is opening so there won't be a lot of leash given to anyone with poor numbers. I will take the possibly bad (Demko) over the likely bad (Holtby) any day. The compounding problem is the Canucks were bad defensively last year and will presumably be the same, or worse, this year. Not a great spot for a goaltender.
I have talked about Rossi this offseason both here and on Twitter, mostly about how the Wild have no centre depth and Rossi can basically walk into a middle-6 centre role. I also believe he can work his way up to the top line role basically in half a season. It is still unlikely he's handed the keys to the kingdom immediately but there aren't a lot of rookie forwards that have a clear path to 18 minutes a night this year, and Rossi is one of them. Again, I think it's something he'll have to work to and won't be handed in camp, but there's a big opportunity for him this season.
Heinola would first have to make the team. He will be at the World Juniors so we'll get a good look at him, and in a feature role. But the left-shooting Heinola won't have a lot of competition in Winnipeg; after Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg's LHD depth is a bevy of journeymen. It honestly would not take superlative play for Heinola to move up to the second pair. I am of the mind that Heinola was good enough to make the roster last year so I would be very surprised if he doesn't make the team this year. As long as he makes the team, I think he ends up playing 19-20 minutes a night after the first month or so.
This one is kind of a freebie because there has been a lot of Tippett chatter this offseason, referencing both a top-6 role and a possible spot on the top PP unit to replace Mike Hoffman. He has 20 goals in 51 career AHL games and seems to be ready to make the move. The question is what his role will be and whether he'll have the opportunity to move up. Coach Joel Quenneville is notoriously tough on rookies; even Alex DeBrincat, who had 28 goals in his rookie year, took about half the season to be moved to the top PP unit in Chicago. Tippett owners will need patience.
Smith is in the same kind of spot as Heinola but might be further down the even-strength depth chart. He will start behind, at the least, both Ryan Murray and Will Butcher. But there's no one with a real firm hold on the top PP role like Pionk does in Winnipeg, so Smith could develop into a Butcher-in-2018 role where he only plays 16-17 minutes a night, but with top PP minutes, which puts a 40-point pace within reach. With the WHL uncertain to return, there may not be anywhere for Smith to play other than the NHL in four weeks' time.
I do think that Zegras, at best, is stuck in a third-line role for the Ducks for 2021. What makes me a bit curious is that Ryan Getzlaf has one year left on his deal, and considering Anaheim is still in rebuild mode, he's a trade deadline candidate. I don't think he gets traded but there is at least that possibility, at which point Zegras probably becomes a top-6 centre. This is a case where it's probably best to wait on Zegras and pick him up off waivers after six weeks or so than draft him in early January.
Arizona needs goal scoring in the worst way and Jenik may be their best goal-scoring prospect. He has nothing to prove in the OHL and with the departure of Taylor Hall, there is room on the left side in the top-6 for Jenik, as well as a spot on the top PP unit. The problem is I think they move a left shot or two to the wing because they have Dvorak, Stepan, Schmaltz, Larsson, and Hayton all capable of playing centre. One of Larsson or Hayton probably gets moved to the left, and suddenly now Jenik, Hayton, and Crouse are all fighting for the LW2 spot. There is competition, just not stiff.
I was going to talk about Nick Robertson but I saw the hornet's nest that created on Twitter a couple days ago so I'll just say he looks like a real nice player.