Eastern Edge: Risers and fallers in the East, including Sergachev, Konecny, and Vrana – Part 4

Brennan Des

2020-12-22

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll finish our review of risers and fallers across the Eastern Conference. In this fourth and final installment, we'll cover Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Toronto and Washington. Check out the links below to get caught up!

 

Part One: Boston, Buffalo, Carolina, Columbus

Part Two: Detroit, Florida, Montreal

Part Three: New Jersey, New York Islanders, New York Rangers, Ottawa

 

As a quick reminder, inspiration for this series came from Wild West writer Grant Campbell, who discussed risers and fallers in the Western Conference a few weeks ago. He highlighted players with rising fantasy value ('risers') and declining fantasy value ('fallers') from each team in the West. Risers are players that you'd want to keep on your fantasy roster, while fallers are players you may want to offload in the near future. I highly recommend you give Grant's article a read here!

 

Philadelphia

RisersTravis Konecny, Sean Couturier, Ivan Provorov, Erik Gustafsson

Fallers – James van Riemsdyk, Shayne Gostisbehere

Gostisbehere burst onto the scene with 46 points in 64 games as a rookie, which translates to 59 points over 82 games. He fell victim to the sophomore slump in year two, where he paced for just 42 points. However, he managed to bounce back in a big way with 65 points through 78 games in year number three. Gostisbehere is now two seasons removed from that incredible 65-point showing, pacing for 39 and 23 points in those two seasons. Last year's career-low output was especially worrying because we saw Ivan Provorov replace Gostisbehere on the team's top power-play unit. In past years, Gostisbehere had been seeing nearly 70-percent of the team's total power-play minutes, but that fell below 50-percent last season. Provorov out-performed Gostisbehere on the man advantage, so it's hard to see Ghost reclaiming a prominent role on that top unit. To make things even more bleak for Gostisbehere, the Flyers went out and signed Erik Gustafsson during the offseason. Gustafsson is likely to get a shot on the top unit, with Provorov capable of stepping in if he falters. Gostisbehere's recent struggles have caused him to plummet down the team's depth chart and he'll have to build back the reputation he earned during his first few seasons in the NHL, but I don't think he'll get that kind of opportunity if he stays in Philadelphia. I am not ready to write him off completely because he's only really had one truly awful year – where many of his struggles were a product of knee injuries. If he's able to return to full health and gets another shot as a top power-play quarterback, there's potential for his fantasy value to rise from an all-time low.

I feel as though the shortened regular season will prevent many from recognizing how good Travis Konecny was last year. The Flyers' forward broke out with 61 points in 66 games during the 2019-2020 campaign. Now, because end-of-season point totals are so easy to digest, those are the numbers we discuss most frequently and that's the stat that sticks in our mind. So, at first glance, it doesn't seem remarkable that Konecny scored 61 points. I mean plenty of players do that in today's NHL, right? Well, 61 points in 66 games translates to 76 points over 82 games. That kind of offensive output is only expected of an elite group in the NHL, that maybe includes 40 or so players.  Konecny's breakout was fueled by increased opportunity as he was seeing 52-percent of the team's power play time and skating almost 17 minutes a night. Based on those numbers, there's room for him to cultivate an even bigger role, which could result in even more offensive production.

 

Pittsburgh

RisersJake Guentzel, John Marino, Kasperi Kapanen

Fallers – Kris Letang

Guentzel was scoring at an incredible rate before a shoulder injury abruptly ended his 2019-2020 campaign. Since he was limited to just 39 games during the regular season, his name was out of the news cycle for a significant stretch and his impressive performance probably won't get the appreciation it deserves. He tallied 43 points in 39 appearances, which translates to 90 points over 82 games. It was especially encouraging to see Guentzel graduate to the top power-play unit, where he saw nearly 70-percent of the team's total power-play time while he was in the lineup. That represents a substantial increase from previous years, where he was stuck on the second unit and seeing less than 50-percent of the team's minutes with the man advantage. He made the most of the increased opportunity as he tallied 10 points on the power play through 39 games. To give you some perspective, it took him a full 82 games to tally just 11 power-play points in 2018-2019. Guentzel is easily Pittsburgh's most talented winger and will continue to thrive in the coming years.

Unlike other teams in the East, I had a hard time identifying a clear-cut 'faller' in Pittsburgh. The team's roster includes a number of players whose fantasy value is barely off the ground – so any drop would be classified as a 'gentle descent' rather than a 'fall'. Then there's a group of superstars and their talented line mates – a group I wouldn't want to bet against. After much deliberation, I concluded that Kris Letang was the most fantasy-relevant player I could justify calling a 'faller'. While I don't think Letang's offensive production is going to fall off a cliff next year, I think it's fair to project some age-related decline going forward as the 33-year-old defenseman navigates the back half of an incredible career.

 

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Tampa Bay

RisersMikhail Sergachev

Fallers – Ryan McDonagh, Tyler Johnson, Yanni Gourde, Ondrej Palat,

I have listed Johnson, Palat and Gourde as fallers because I don't think they currently hold the prominent scoring roles that they once did. Tyler Johnson put up 72 points in 77 games during the 2014-2015 campaign but hasn't touched the 60-point mark since then. His role with the team has decreased in recent years as he averaged just 14 and a half minutes of ice time last season. Like Johnson, Palat also set career highs in 2014-2015 as he tallied 63 points through 75 appearances – a 69-point pace! While his role with the team hasn't diminished as much as Johnson's, it's concerning that Palat saw just 27-percent of the team's power play time last season. Tampa Bay boasts a number of highly skilled forwards that have taken over the team's offense and relegated Palat and Johnson to less prominent roles.  The same can be said for Yanni Gourde, who put up an impressive 64 points in 2017-2018 while skating over 16 minutes a night. In contrast, he was on the ice for 14 minutes per game last season and scored at a 35-point pace. While their current trajectories don't look good, Johnson, Palat and Gourde certainly have the talent to be bounce back if their situations change in the coming years.

 

Toronto

RisersIlya Mikheyev

Fallers – Wayne Simmonds, Joe Thornton

You'll notice a theme across many of the risers in this series – their recent 'breakouts' haven't been fully recognized by the hockey world yet. As a result of last year's shortened regular season, players weren't able to put up those attention-grabbing, lofty point totals we're used to seeing. As such, a lot of impressive performances went under the radar, or were forgotten due to the lengthy pause between regular season and playoff action. That effect is further magnified for Ilya Mikheyev, who suffered a wrist laceration last season, which limited him to just 39 appearances. He managed 23 points in those games, which translates to 48 points over 82 games. Mikheyev's offensive output is so impressive because all of his points came at even-strength since he didn't have a role on the power play. He certainly has enough talent to get a shot on the team's second unit, which could provide a boost to his production in the coming years. We saw a lot of good things from Mikheyev in his first NHL season and I think his fantasy value will rise as he continues to thrive within Toronto's top-six.

In his prime, Wayne Simmonds was incredibly valuable in fantasy hockey leagues because he contributed to so many categories. He could threaten for 60 points and produce on the power play while contributing a significant number of hits, shots and penalty minutes. Unfortunately, he's slowed down in recent years as he paced for just 30 points in each of his last two seasons. He skated around 15 minutes a night last year, which represents a significant drop from the 17-18 minutes he was seeing during his most productive seasons. Considering the elite talent at the top of Toronto's lineup, Simmonds will probably continue to see a limited role next year. At this stage of his career, it's hard to see a path for him back to 60-point form.

 

Washington

RisersJakub Vrana

Fallers – Justin Schultz, T.J. Oshie

Jakub Vrana had an understated breakout last year as he tallied 52 points through 69 games, which translates to 62 points over 82 games. That scoring pace represents a significant step up from his sophomore season when he paced for 47 points, which was a step up from his rookie campaign where he scored at a 30-point pace. Vrana has shown gradual improvement over his first few years in the NHL and has plenty of room to build on his offensive production. He saw slightly less than 15 minutes of ice time last season and was on the ice for just 36-percent of the team's total power play time. In the coming years, he'll surely see his overall ice time increase and should also break into the top power rotation as some of the current regulars pass the torch.

Justin Schultz put up career-high 51 points in 78 games during the 2016-2017 campaign. He was able to produce at such a high level because injuries kept Kris Letang sidelined for half of the season. Schultz took on a bigger role in Letang's absence and thrived as the team's top offensive option on the blue line. Aside from that one standout season, Schultz has mostly been a 35-point defenseman. He was limited to a secondary role for most of his time in Pittsburgh and it's hard to see that changing in Washington – where he'll be playing second fiddle to John Carlson.

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