Fantasy Take: Nashville brings Granlund back
Michael Clifford
2020-12-23
Even with Luke Kunin to sign as an RFA, Nashville had lots of cap space and decided to bring back a familiar face, signing winger Mikael Granlund to a one-year deal worth $3.75M. He returns to a Predators team that traded Kevin Fiala for Granlund back in 2018-19, and he's back for another run, hopefully, at a Cup.
Granlund paced for well over 60 points/82 games with Minnesota in the three seasons leading to the trade but could not find the same level of success, managing just 35 points across 79 regular season contests spanning parts of two seasons.
The first question: what happened with Gralund in 2019-20? The short answer is power-play production. He had six power-play points in 63 games, pacing for about seven had the season finished. The prior three seasons he managed 20, 19, and 20 power-play points. Add nine PP points, near his recent norms, and his 82-game point pace exceeds 50. Not great, but not near as bad.
There is hope for a rebound, though. His individual points percentage, or the rate he garners points when Nashville scores with him on the ice, was a career-low 57 percent at 5-on-5 and will rebound. Even with the defencemen jumping up as much as they do, 57 percent is just too low for a guy who has seen many seasons in the 70- and 80-percent ranges. Even a lower-than-normal season in the upper-sixties could add three or four points for us.
It really does come down to the power play. They split across two units with the team after Hynes took over, having eight forwards within 50 seconds of each other in PP minutes per game. If that persists, it'll be hard to see a big rebound in PP production. If they go to a heavily-used top unit and he's not on it, it won't rebound, either.
This team is still hopeful for a Cup so if he plays well, he'll get 18+ minutes a night, and if he doesn't, he won't. He isn't a peripheral monster so whether it's 17:30 or 19 minutes won't make a massive difference for him fantasy-wise, he just needs to stay in the top-6 and see his PP production rebound. I just think with the defence playing as offensive as they do with the uncertain power-play situation makes for tenuous fantasy value here. Even if everything goes right, 45 points in 56 games with decent peripherals isn't a lot to covet. He is fine for depth but he's fringe-y in 12-team leagues.