Geek of the Week: Late-Round D Options

Logan Doyle

2020-12-27

It seems almost everyone goes into their draft hoping to land their favorite sleeper. Here you'll find four late round multi-cat options to fill out your defence. You'll see there are two types of late-round players to consider. The first are the hidden point producers that will also provide you with that necessary multi-cat value.  The second are more multi-cat stuffers that won't leave donuts in the goals and assists columns by rostering them.

GMs are always looking for those mid-to-late round bangers on defense that will give big hit and block stats while not tanking shots on goal and point totals. The problem is, so is everyone else. For example, currently in Yahoo drafts the average draft position of Darnell Nurse has recently increased from 178 to 143.8, while the ADP for Jacob Trouba has increased from 180 to 139.6. They're good value as the 41st and 42nd defenceman off the board, but if the past couple days is any indication, that value is going to further tighten.

What happens if you miss out on those well-known cat-stuffers? Some GM's prefer to draft their final defencemen in the late or final rounds of the draft. When value drafting like this, owners are hoping to draft players that will provide similar value to those taken much earlier in the draft. Being able to identify those players requires time and research.

The first two are late to final round bangers that could provide similar peripheral value to Nurse and Trouba and may also provide you with up to 80% of their offensive production.

Matt Roy – Los Angeles KingsYahoo ADP – not ranked. Fantasy Hockey Geek ranked 183

Yes, the Kings. Yes, they were awful. Drew Doughty finished minus-16, and the Kings finished 28TH in the standings.

Roy, a 7th round, 194th pick in the 2015 draft was a bright spot who made his presence known in LA last season and looks to be a solid final-round sleeper. His icetime steadily increased throughout the season, from 15:41 in October to 19:41 in February. His offensive totals of four goals and 14 assists are modest but this was his first full NHL season. The first stat that really stands out is his plus/minus. He was a plus-16, including a plus-9 in February. He led the team in plus/minus by double digits. His 56% CF was also second on the team behind only Tyler Toffoli. If you look at the Kings roster of CF with and without Roy, almost every player's CF improved with him on the ice.

Roy put up solid peripheral stats as well with 112 shots, 132 hits, and 100 blocks. His only real knock is he won't give you penalty minutes. As a whole, Roy had a really solid first year.

Keep in mind that Roy saw no power-play exposure last season and likely won't see any this year.  He should not be counted on to become an offensive dynamo. That said, there is offensive upside here. He will give you depth production at 5×5. If he were to sneak onto the second power play, he could push himself into 20-23-point territory (30-35-point 82-game pace). There is a lot to like.

For the shortened season, he should close in on two shots, hits, and blocks per game and increase his point per game totals to .35/game or 20 points in 56 games. If you miss out on Trouba and Nurse, he could be a real value final round pick.

Mackenzie WeegarFlorida PanthersYahoo ADP – not ranked. Fantasy Hockey Geek ranked 250

FHG ranks defencemen in multi-cat leagues higher than Yahoo does traditionally. To see Weegar ranked 250th by FHG makes Weegar a real deep dive pick. It's also what makes him such an interesting option. Very few GMs will be looking at him.

As a final-round option he could be worth the risk. Injuries hampered what looked to be a solid season for Weegar. He was on pace for 32.8 points and 130+ shots, hits, and blocks. He has also provided almost a PIM per game over the last two seasons (.89).  

With Mike Matheson leaving, Weegar should be in line to solidify his spot in the top 4 along with Aaron Ekblad, Anton Stralman and Keith Yandle. In March, when the league shut down, Weegar was averaging 22 minutes per game. Matheson's departure solidifies his role in the top 4. 

Tucked next to Yandle at 5×5, it should not be a surprise to see him continue to receive 20+ minutes a game. If he can sneak in some second power-play exposure his offensive totals could increase. Predictions for him appear really low at between 15-20 points. He had 18 last season in an injury-plagued 45 games. That put him on a 32.8 point pace.

Over 56 games, a stat line of 20-24 points and 1.8 shots, hits, and blocks per game should surprise no one. Add in 40-50 penalty minutes and he turns into a really nice unexpected final pick.

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This season, like no other, you'll need options. COVID will strike most teams at some point. If you don't draft either, then put these two on your watch list at the very least. They'll come in handy if the IR-bug hits.

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Here's two, more palatable names that are being undervalued in drafts.

Jakob Chychrun – Arizona Coyotes – Yahoo ADP 176th – 95th D-man vs. FHG Rank 95, 45th D-man

In four seasons, he has yet to play a full one. He is constantly battling injuries, which has slowed his development and as a result, opened him up to become an opportunistic late-round draft pick.

Yet, for the last three years we have seen his points per game increase from .28 to .41, including 16 points in his final 39 games. He sits on his breakout threshold.

He won't wow with his hit and block totals, but he provides enough to make him a worthy look in multi-cat leagues. In his four seasons he has been incredibly consistent with hits and blocks averaging almost exactly 100 hits and 120 blocks a year.

What is most encouraging is that his shots on goal totals have increased all four years: 1.5, 2.04, 2.2 and finally 2.36 per game, which is a 197-shot total over 82 games. If not for COVID cutting the season short, he would have seen his first season with 70+ games played.

There is a lot to like from Chychrun going into this season, but it's red-flagged with injury concerns. Late round defencemen that have 0.5 points and 2.5 SOG per game potential are rare. The reward would be well worth the risk.

Filip Hronek – Detroit Red Wings – Yahoo ADP 153rd, 45th D-man vs. FHG Rank 66th, 33rd D-man

If your pool counts plus/minus, perhaps look away. His minus-38 was at category ruining levels. It can't really be that bad again this year, can it? Well, it really could. Detroit didn't do a whole lot this off season to speed up the rebuild or improve. The goal clearly is to capture another high draft pick and let the kids develop. That plus/minus should again be a sore spot. A minus-20 would be a huge improvement, yet it still burns they eyes. Just remember, it's not a worthless stat if your league uses it.

Some GMs are willing to punt this category if they can provide their team a chance to win 2-3 other categories instead. Hronek fits this bill.

In one-year leagues, don't let the talk of Moritz Seider scare you. He may become the number one offensive weapon on Detroit's blueline, but for now it's all Hronek's. In saying that, it is also a real opportunity for him to showcase that he can run a power play at an elite level and give himself a long leash moving forward as Seider matures.

On an abysmal Detroit team, he managed almost two shots per game and a 39 point pace. His blocks also jumped from 32 in 46 games to 74 in 65. Positive multi-cat signs as he gains confidence in the NHL. He also had 105 hits which put him on a 132 hit pace.

Hronek is going to get all the icetime he can handle. He's already the workhorse for the Wings at 23:00 TOI. He improved in every statistical category last season (punting +/-).  How effective the power play can be will likely be the difference between Hronek being a 26 or 34 point defenceman this year. 

Anyone drafting Hronek will be doing so with the expectation that he takes another step forward. With a young defenceman on a bad team, that brings risk. If he does take that step, he will have been worth the risk.

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LUKE HUGHES N.J
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KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
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22.0 VALERI NICHUSHKIN NATHAN MACKINNON ARTTURI LEHKONEN
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