Eastern Edge: Fantasy goalie tier list for 2021

Brennan Des

2020-12-29

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll divide Eastern Conference goaltenders into tiers based on their fantasy hockey value. Keep in mind, there's a fair bit of subjectivity that goes into these tiers, so use them more to guide your own thinking than anything else. With that being said, feel free to share your own thoughts in the comments below!

 

Tier 1

Andrei Vasilevskiy – Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa Bay possesses one of the most talented rosters in the NHL – a statement which remains true even with Nikita Kucherov sidelined for the season with a hip injury.  From a fantasy perspective, Vasilevskiy finds himself in an optimal situation. He's an excellent, established goalie who also happens to be the undisputed starter for a team that just won the Stanley Cup. In other words, he's going to get a lot of starts, he'll win a lot of his games, and he'll put up solid numbers in the process. I can't confidently say the same for any other goalie in the conference, which is why Vasilevskiy gets his own tier.

 

Tier 2

Carter Hart – Philadelphia Flyers

The 22-year-old netminder is rapidly cementing his status as one of the league's top goaltenders. Not only is he talented but he plays behind a strong team in Philadelphia, making him a highly valuable asset in fantasy leagues. Hart put together an impressive performance during the 2020 playoffs, winning nine of his 14 starts and posting a 2.23 GAA and .926 save percentage along the way. While his career in the NHL is off to a great start, he may have a few stretches of bad games here and there as he continues to develop his game and achieve the consistency of his more established counterparts.

 

Frederik Andersen – Toronto Maple Leafs

We know that Andersen is a good goaltender because he's posted a save percentage of .917 or better in three of his four seasons with the Leafs – a team that isn't exactly recognized for its defense. While he's coming off a career-worst season that saw him post a .909 save percentage, his strong track record reinforces my confidence that he'll be able to bounce back during the 2021 campaign. He should get around 75-percent of the starts in Toronto this season, which should translate to a lot of wins given the quality of Toronto's roster.

 

Igor Shesterkin – New York Rangers

The 24-year-old goaltender has enjoyed success at every level. His last three seasons in the KHL (2016-2019) saw him post save percentages above .930 and GAAs below 1.70. He maintained that magic in North America, sporting a .934 save percentage and 1.90 GAA through 25 games in the AHL during the 2019-2020 campaign. When he was called up to the NHL last year, he won 10 of his 12 starts, posting a 2.52 GAA and .932 save percentage in the process. He finds himself playing behind a star-studded roster in New York, which should help him rack up the wins. While his long-term outlook is excellent, his fantasy value next season remains somewhat limited as he's unlikely to see a high volume of starts. Alexandar Georgiev is an above-average backup and should see a significant share of starts as the Rangers are likely to run a 60/40 split between Shesterkin and Georgiev.

 

Carey Price – Montreal Canadiens

During the 2020 postseason, Price reminded us why he's so highly regarded across the league. He registered a 1.78 GAA and .936 save percentage through 10 starts in the playoffs, bouncing back from a less than ideal regular season that saw him post a 2.79 GAA and .909 save percentage. The Canadiens bring an improved roster into the 2021 campaign, featuring important new pieces like Tyler Toffoli, Josh Anderson, Joel Edmundson and Alexander Romanov. Newly-acquired Jake Allen should help lighten Price's workload, keeping the 33-year-old netminder fresh for the games that he does start. With a better team in front of him and a more reliable backup, Price should have a solid showing this year.

 

Tuukka Rask – Boston Bruins

The Bruins netminder finds himself atop many goalie rankings after an impressive 2019-2020 regular season saw him post a 26-8-6 record alongside a 2.12 GAA and .929 save percentage. With those numbers, it's hard to argue against Rask being a top-tier option in fantasy leagues. However, I think it's important to highlight that prior to last year's excellence, his recent performances were above average but not elite. He managed a .912 save percentage during the 2018-2019 campaign, a .917 the year before that, and a .915 in both the 2016-2017 and 2015-2016 seasons. The Bruins got worse during the offseason following Zdeno Chara's retirement and Torey Krug's departure. In addition, they'll be without superstar sniper David Pastrnak for the first month of the 2021 campaign. So, it may be harder for Rask to register wins as the season gets underway. He also won't get a high volume of starts this season as Jaroslav Halak has shown he's more than capable of carrying a significant workload. It's worth mentioning a lack of fans in the arena may have an effect on Tuukka's play. All this is to say that it may be worth drafting a different goalie after the first few rounds of your fantasy draft, instead of drafting Rask early on.

 

Tier 3

Buffalo – Linus Ullmark

I think the Sabres improved a lot during the offseason, which significantly boosts Ullmark's fantasy value. The acquisitions of Taylor Hall and Eric Staal give Buffalo two dangerous scoring lines for the first time in a while, as depth scoring had been a debilitating weakness for Buffalo in recent years. I'm especially optimistic because Ullmark played very well during the 2019-2020 regular season – before these upgrades were made. He won 17 of his 34 starts last year, posting a 2.69 GAA and .915 save percentage behind a lacklustre team. Having a stronger team in front of him should help Ullmark register more wins, ultimately making him a more valuable fantasy asset. I think you'd be wise to target the 27-year-old netminder in your fantasy drafts as his true fantasy value hasn't yet been recognized, allowing you to steal him in the later rounds of your draft.

 

Elvis Merzlikins/Joonas Korpisalo – Columbus Blue Jackets

While Merzlikins is probably the better goaltender, he takes a backseat role to Joonas Korpisalo when both are healthy and available to start. As we saw last season, Merzlikins is much more effective when he starts consistently. He failed to register a win during the first half of the 2019-2020 campaign, posting a 3.41 GAA and .889 save percentage through 10 appearances in a backup role. In contrast, he took on a more prominent role during the second half of the season (while Korpisalo was injured) and managed a 13-5-4 record alongside an outstanding 1.97 GAA and .935 save percentage. Despite Merzlikins' strong performance down the stretch, Korpisalo was still trusted with the starting role during the 2020 playoffs and will likely begin the 2021 season as Columbus' starter. With the two goalies likely to share the net next season, neither one will get the high volume of starts needed to be considered a top-tier asset in fantasy leagues.

 

Tristan Jarry – Pittsburgh Penguins

This season marks the beginning of a new era in Pittsburgh, where Tristan Jarry is the team's undisputed starter. Jarry put together a strong performance last year, winning 20 of his 33 games while posting a 2.43 GAA and .921 save percentage. Jarry plays behind a strong team in Pittsburgh and should tally a fair number of wins during the 2021 campaign. This is the first time that Jarry will be relied upon to be 'the guy', so it'll be interesting to see how he fares in this new role and under the pressure that comes with it.

 

Sergei Bobrovsky – Florida Panthers

The 32-year-old netminder is coming off a career-worst season in which he put up a 3.23 GAA and .900 save percentage through 50 games. His track record suggests he's a much better goalie than that, so I expect a bounce-back performance in 2021. With that being said, I think that Florida's playstyle will have a significant influence on Bob's numbers. The Panthers were an offensively-minded team last year, which made sense because they had a lot of offensive talent in Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Evgenii Dadonov and Mike Hoffman. The team's offensive mindset contrasted the defensively oriented Blue Jackets that Bob thrived behind for most of his career. As such, I'm curious as to whether the departures of Dadonov and Hoffman cause the Panthers to adopt a more balanced system that works in Bobrovsky's favour.

 

Tier 4

Ilya Samsonov – Washington Capitals

In my opinion, Samsonov is being overvalued in fantasy drafts as many project an increased role for him while Henrik Lundqvist is sidelined for the season with a heart condition. The prevailing belief seems to be that Samsonov will see the lion's share of starts in Washington and since the Capitals are a good team, he'll register more wins than previously expected, ultimately making him a more valuable fantasy asset. Unfortunately, I don't think it's that simple and I'm not sure if Samsonov is ready for such a heavy workload. The 23-year-old netminder has just 26 games of NHL experience – all of which came last season. He was sharing the net with Braden Holtby, which represented a relatively low-pressure situation as Samsonov's struggles didn't get the same level of attention as Holtby's struggles. While I think Samsonov is a good goaltender playing for a good team, I'd prefer to avoid the growing pains that are likely to come with him being baptized in fire this year.

 

Petr Mrazek – Carolina Hurricanes

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Mrazek benefits from playing behind a stellar defense in Carolina but his individual numbers haven't been great in the last few years. I don't think there's a huge talent difference between Mrazek and backup netminder James Reimer, so it's possible that Reimer goes on a hot streak and steals some starts from Mrazek. The way I see it, Mrazek is a good second goalie for your fantasy roster but it's risky to have him as your number-one option.

 

Semyon Varlamov – New York Islanders

Playing behind a stingy Islanders defense last season allowed him to post a respectable .914 save percentage and 2.62 GAA in 45 games. He was especially strong in the playoffs, registering a .921 save percentage and 2.14 GAA through 20 appearances. Based on his track record, I'm inclined to think that his success was a product of the team in front of him rather than his individual play. As such, while he may begin the 2021 season as New York's starter, I think that role can be quickly stolen from him by the up-and-coming Ilya Sorokin.

 

Tier 5

This tier features a couple of good starting goalies who play for up-and-coming teams in Murray and Blackwood. It also includes Halak and Georgiev, a couple of good backups who play for good teams and should see a significant number of starts.

Matt Murray – Ottawa Senators

Alexandar Georgiev – New York Rangers

Mackenzie Blackwood – New Jersey Devils

Jaroslav Halak – Boston Bruins

 

Tier 6

Here we have a number of backups who play for good teams and will probably get a fair number of starts, However, their fantasy value remains limited because they're unlikely to get a high volume of starts.

Ilya Sorokin – New York Islanders

James Reimer – Carolina Hurricanes

Jake Allen – Montreal Canadiens

Carter Hutton – Buffalo Sabres

Casey DeSmith – Pittsburgh Penguins

Brian Elliot – Philadelphia Flyers

 

Tier 7

This tier features Crawford – a good goaltender who's expected to take a backseat role while mentoring Mackenzie Blackwood this year. In addition, the Devils aren't expected to contend for the Cup this year, so it won't be easy for Crawford to perform well in most fantasy categories. We also have Griess in this tier, who should see a decent number of starts but probably won't post impressive numbers considering Detroit's porous defense.

Corey Crawford – New Jersey Devils

Thomas Griess – Detroit Red Wings

 

Tier 8

This tier features goalies that play for good teams but aren't likely to get the volume of starts needed to be relevant in most fantasy leagues. They should be good for a couple of spot starts during the year though!

Curtis McElhinney – Tampa Bay Lightning

Jack Campbell – Toronto Maple Leafs

 

Tier 9

Here we have a couple of backups who aren't likely to see a high volume of starts next season. In addition, they play for teams that aren't expected to rack up wins during the 2021 campaign.

Marcus Hogberg – Ottawa Senators

Jonathan Bernier – Detroit Red Wings

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LUKE HUGHES N.J
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KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
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