The Kings added Andreas Athanasiou to the roster yesterday, signing him for a year at $1.2-million. This is an intriguing landing spot for AA because this team has been devoid of true depth scoring for many years and he is not far removed from a 30-goal season. At the same time, the top line seems set and I would usually lean to incumbents when making lineups. I don’t see the reason for AA to replace Iafallo or Brown, at least not for several games.

In that sense, it’ll be hard to see AA flourish in a depth role there. As an example, as the Kings declined, Tyler Toffoli’s goals/game mark also declined, from 0.31 between 2014-18 to 0.24 over the last two years. Over an 82-game season, that’s five fewer goals for a 25-goal scorer. It is a lot. If AA gets to the top line, he can do some damage, but I think we see him float in the middle-6 to give them some depth scoring punch, and that likely means a goal output similar to last year.

There are some hockey maxims I have taken to over the years and one of them is “the hardest minutes for any player are those with bad line mates.” Not sure on the source but it always rang true for me. The Detroit roster last year, outside the top four five players, was flat-out bad. It has been for a while. I think we saw his upside when he gets lucky with shooting percentages. I think we also saw his downside when his team’s percentages aren’t in his favor. Whether that changes in Los Angeles, well, they’re a better roster than Detroit anyway. There is something here with AA, it’s just a matter of unlocking it consistently. I have no idea if that happens.

*
An update from Henrik Lundqvist:

pic.twitter.com/v2yWlfUiXH

— Henrik Lundqvist (@hlundqvist35) December 28, 2020

Nothing to say except best wishes for a full and speedy recovery.

*

Kirby Dach will be out 4-5 months following surgery on the broken wrist suffered at the World Juniors, his NHL team said. Chicago will be without their second-line centre for basically the entire season. A brutal stroke of luck for a kid with a very bright future. Hope to see him back before the end of the season. He was a lot of fun to watch in the playoffs.

All of a sudden, Carl Soderberg is an interesting name in the fantasy realm. Yeah, Strome gets the first crack. But…

*

There has been a lot of movement the last handful of days and there will be more to come in the next few weeks. The 2020 Dobber Hockey Guide will be updated throughout, keeping you informed of what owners need to know to have an edge on their league mates. Head to the Dobber Shop to grab your copy now!

*

Lucas Raymond took a spill midway through the second period of Sweden’s win over Austria at the World Juniors last night. He was down for a minute or two and skated off with the trainer. He did come back for the third period, though, so he looks no worse for the wear.

It was a 4-0 game dominated from start to finish by Sweden. Another great goaltending performance from Austrian Sebastian Wraneschitz.

*

The trade that sent Braydon Coburn and Cedric Paquette to Ottawa piques my interest from a fantasy perspective for one reason: what can Paquette's peripherals look like with some additional ice time?

I say that because, and this is completely true, he has averaged over three hits per game over the last two years despite averaging under 12:30 in TOI per night. That came off the heels of averaging 2.25 the two seasons prior to that while playing under 11 minutes a night. There were 284 forwards with at least 2000 even-strength minutes these last three years, and Paquette was third in hits/60. That level of physicality means even a rise from 12:30 a night to 14:30 a night could see a big jump in raw hit totals. That doubles as well for his PIM rates, if only more muted because he's not as much of a PIM-taker as he is a hit-maker.

Maybe he doesn't get more ice time. He is a centre, with Derek Stepan being added recently and Chris Tierney still around, along with Colin White (who looked like he may have had the 1C slotting until about five days ago), there are enough centres here to compete with him for TOI. Not necessarily good ones, but he's not either, so everyone is kind of in the same boat. With the prospects hopefully putting up some sort of fight in camp, it's far from a guarantee, or even a likelihood, that Paquette gets more TOI. Just remember he'll be on a new team in a division loaded with rivals in a season built for rivalries. His physical play could go start overclocking this season. (I have my doubts Stuetzle starts at centre but who knows.)

I will be honest and say this weekend really did nothing to make the fantasy upside of this Ottawa roster more appealing. Tkachuk/Dadonov/Chabot is the triumvirate fantasy owners will have to know, but it's not as if there was any player brought in who made me think, "oh this should help Tkachuk a lot." The argument is probably that Stepan is better than, say, Colin White, and even if I agree, is that marginal upgrade really worth a lot? Is it worth something that will meaningfully change the outlook for Tkachuk/Dadonov/Chabot? I would argue not. Shuffling deck chairs and all that. It looks like a sizable upgrade for Stepan; I’m not sure it’s a sizable upgrade for his soon-to-be wingers.

Anyway, I think the Sens, in real life, improved their roster over the last handful of days. I don't think it's much that changes the outlook for their stars in the fantasy realm.

*

Corey Perry signed a one-year deal with the Habs for close to the league minimum. Five years ago, for millions more, this would have been a blockbuster signing. Now, it's bottom-6 depth. The team has Brendan Gallagher on their top line, added Josh Anderson and Tyler Toffoli this offseason, and still have Joel Armia on the roster. There will be games where Perry may not dress.

On the topic of Perry, one thing I have been rolling around in the ol' skull is how penalties and familiarity are going to play into this season. It does not take an active imagination to think about how playing the same teams repeatedly, and teams that are natural rivals anyway, could lead to animosity on the ice, and lots of power plays/suspensions/early nights to the dressing room. How does this affect scoring, and more specifically, how that scoring is distributed? It will be fun to find out.

*

Last thing, I think there are reasons other than his punchiness as to why Perry was signed:

so i’ve been wondering why the Habs would sign Perry. it seemed like Edmundson/Anderson filled their toughness quota and they have loads of RW depth now. but even as he’s declined, his PP impacts have remained very strong (from @EvolvingHockey) pic.twitter.com/Tp7kVrbpg6

— Michael Clifford (@SlimCliffy) December 28, 2020

*

I have mentioned I am probably going to play more best ball than typical season-long fantasy hockey for this season for fairly obvious reasons, but I still do have a home keeper league that I'm looking forward to. It got me thinking about keeper strategies for this year. (I imagine many leagues have not only had their keepers submitted already, but drafts done. As long as leagues agree to their settings, all the power to them, but this year, of all years, I think it's worth waiting to as close to season's start as possible.)

This is a year where difficult decisions need to be made. Nikita Kucherov is out for the year, Tyler Seguin and Vladimir Tarasenko could miss most of it, David Pastrnak will probably miss at least a month (which works out to more than 20 games in a typical 82-game season), and so on. We also don't know how teams will treat prospects with the introduction of the taxi squad and the Canadian Hockey League's members being uncertain to return at any point this winter.

Could we see more rookies burn an ELC because teams just need bodies if, say, the entire top-6 has to be quarantined for 10 days because of a COVID case? Also, if teams are missing players, the top of the roster tends to get more minutes. Is this going to be a season where guys who typically play 18-19 minutes are now over 20 minutes? And guys who play 17-18 are now pushing over 19? I am sure teams will want to rest their players given the condensed schedule, but if the NHL has the same problems the NFL and MLB had, they may not have a choice. When the puck drops, coaches still want to win.

For me, this is a year where if fantasy owners think their keeper/dynasty teams need a reset, now is the time to do exactly that. I think we'll get a look at more rookies this year and teams at the top of fantasy leagues will need to swing trades to fill their rosters as they deplete over the season. I think it's a good year to add assets for the future.

*

And as I think of keepers, I think of Dylan Larkin.

Going into 2019-20, I was very high on him. Like, I had him ranked as a top-25 skater-high on him. That clearly did not work out but it's not as if he had a bad year. He was on pace for 22 goals and about 62 points, pushing for nearly 260 shots had he played 82 games. Those are good numbers, but not top-25 numbers. What made it worse was he cut his PIM production nearly in half, and his hit rate went from about one per game over the previous couple years to about 0.73 per game in 2019-20. There were declines across the board.

Detroit should be better this year. Anthony Mantha is healthy – he missed nearly 30 games last year – they have a full year from Robby Fabbri, they added some depth with Namestnikov/Ryan/Gagner, meaning there should be some help for Larkin at even strength should injuries hit, and have prospects like Zadino, Veleno, and Rasmussen all at varying degrees of readiness. I think there are legitimate reasons to be think of a turnaround.

Larkin will hopefully get a full year with Mantha, playing over 20 minutes a night. There are some tough teams in their new division but there is also Chicago and Florida, which should make for fire-wagon hockey. I will be a buyer in Larkin, especially when I see him ranked lower than Nico Hischier over on Yahoo! and a round later than Pierre-Luc Dubois on ESPN.