Capped: Team-by-team buy-and-sell – Part 7

Alexander MacLean

2020-12-31

Week Six is in the books just like the entire year of 2020. Let's hope that tomorrow, and all of 2021 are better on a global scale. For the things that matter just a smidge less, I hope it's a good year for your fantasy teams too. To help with that, we have some more players to look into buying and selling! This week we're covering Colorado, Chicago, Carolina, and Calgary.

You can find the first six segments in order here, here, here, here, here, and here.

To reiterate for the uninitiated, this multi-week feature will cover each NHL team, analyzing one player to buy and one to sell. These recommendations will be based on their performance versus cap hit. That means in non-cap leagues, some of these suggestions may not be as relevant, but that doesn't mean the analysis isn't relevant. Generally, these players will either be riding new contracts into the season or be expected to have a large shift in value, for one reason or another. We went alphabetically last year, so this time we're going for the reverse.

 

****

Colorado Avalanche

Buy: Pavel Francouz

Current Cap Hit: $2,000,000

There aren't usually a lot of goalies in the 'buy' section and that's generally due to the fact that goalies can be so unpredictable, so surrendering assets in the hope that their play improves isn't usually a great idea. However, Francouz's case is different in a couple ways. First off, his numbers last year are sparkling, and with the Avs looking even better on paper (especially on defence) there are no concerns. Secondly, a brief appearance in the playoff bubble where Francouz couldn't get settled means his stock is lower than it should be. Thirdly, he's on a bargain contract and has a band-aid-boy starter in front of him. How many other goalies may give you half of a team's starts on a legitimate Cup-favourite team while being paid $2 million or less? The answer is none.

 

Sell: Samuel Girard

Current Cap Hit: $5,000,000

I will preface this by saying that I am one of Girard's biggest fans out there. I love seeing the small cerebral defencemen drafted in the second round make the NHL at 19 and thrive ever since. Unfortunately for his fantasy owners, he is a player to look into selling. Girard's ascent will be slowed by the acquisition of Devon Toews who will eat into both Girard's even strength and powerplay minutes. Additionally, Girard's extension kicks in this season and counts $5 million against the cap every year for seven years. It will look like a steal for the second half of it, but with the flat cap at the moment it is a little harder to stomach for a second- or third-pairing defenceman.

 

Chicago Blackhawks

Honestly, the Blackhawks confuse me. They could have looked at the LA Kings and noticed that they were a couple years ahead of Chicago in the rebuild cycle and copied their path with the aging (cup-winning) core, while stockpiling one of the deepest prospect pools in the league. Instead, Chicago has lost trades to manage around the cap and tried to patch holes with replacement level pieces such as Nikita Zadorov and Mattias Janmark. Then there's the goaltending… Aside from Jordan Binnington, usually teams can't get away with turning to their third- or fourth-string goaltenders, let alone finding long-term success. However, that appears to be the exact plan for the Blackhawks after they moved on from both Robin Lehner and Corey Crawford.

The confusion continues when you try and determine who to buy or sell from this team. Alex DeBrincat should rebound, but his pedigree and cap hit likely keep his value high enough that he's not easy to acquire. Adam Boqvist and Dominik Kubalik might be the only other cap bargains on the team, but you run into the same problem there as with DeBrincat. On the flip side, none of the rest of the team really has an inflated value, and the injuries to Jonathan Toews, Kirby Dach, and Alex Nylander have lowered the outlook even further, which makes it tough to sell anyone here for fair value.

In the end, I'm going to cop out and say that the buy/sell here will fully depend on team needs and league settings. If you need volume starts, take a flier on the goalies, but if you need ratios, stay far away. Nikita Zadorov could lead the league in hits due to his team never having the puck, but his plus minus will likely be atrocious.

 

Carolina Hurricanes

Buy: Martin Necas

Current Cap Hit: $863,333

There's no rush on this one as Necas could be one of those players that fall victim to a bit of a sophomore slump. Unfortunately, he wasn't one of the players I covered last spring, but after putting up some high percentages last year, he tailed off at the end of the season despite more ice time (and struggling while being sheltered). Necas then managed to tread water in the playoffs to the tune of four points in eight games, but it appears that all the signs are there for a bit of a stagnation. This is where you jump in, and snag one of the top 20 skaters to own in a cap league, for the low, low price of a middle-six winger on pace for 35 points.

📢 advertisement:

 

Sell: Petr Mrazek

Current Cap Hit: $3,125,000

There aren't too many players to sell high on in Carolina as the top and bottom of their roster are very clear, and no one had any underlying percentages out of whack. That means we fall back on the goalie that the Hurricanes' front office has been trying so hard to upgrade. Mrazek's value comes mainly from his volume, as his percentage numbers are close to league average. If an upgrade goalie is brought in at any point, then Mrazek's value plummets. At best, he rides out the season as the number one, and then gets replaced in the offseason when his contract expires. From there, unless he ends up in Seattle, don't expect him to be able to provide nearly the same value from volume once he is a backup somewhere else (especially somewhere that won't shelter his as much).

 

Calgary Flames

Buy: Andrew Mangiapane

Current Cap Hit: $2,425,000

Somehow Johnny Gaudreau struggled while his two most common line mates were shooting at an average of 15%. Expect the big line to rebound a little, close to a point per game. Along with that, the second line should see a rise as well, and it may just be a little more significant, especially on the left side. Andrew Mangiapane is still a year away from his breakout threshold, but another year of growth is lining right up for him. His time on ice increased every quarter last season, and by the last 10 games of the regular season he was up to 17 minutes per game. In those 10 games, he put up 11 even strength points (!), and threw 26 shots on net. He is in line to keep that second line slot all season, and with those kinds of minutes he should pass his career high of 32 points before the trade deadline.

 

*Sell: Noah Hanifin

Current Cap Hit: $4,950,000

The Flames' defence core got a makeover this offseason, and there will be a few effects from the fallout of the moves. Noah Hanifin took on a heavier defensive load last year as Giordano was being sheltered (likely due to his age) and Hanifin's production dropped as a result. As a result, we can't expect that next season will be any different in terms of using Hanifin in more defensive situations to shelter Gio. Unfortunately for the Flames, Travis Hamonic and T.J. Brodie who were also managing the defensive situations, have left. They are replaced by Chris Tanev and some internal growth, but unfortunately for Hanifin owners, that means a lot more defensive responsibilities while the kids and Gio soak up the easier minutes. Don't expect a rebound back up to 30 points.

 

*I wanted to put Jacob Markstrom in this section, and started looking at his underlying numbers to prove it, and realized everything under the hood was coming up roses. He should be fine.

 

****

All statistics are all pulled from FrozenTools, and all contract info from Capfriendly. Follow me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.

Stay safe!

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 18 - 20:03 CGY vs WSH
Mar 18 - 22:03 SEA vs BUF

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
DANIIL MIROMANOV CGY
ALEXANDER NYLANDER CBJ
EVGENY KUZNETSOV CAR
ANTHONY DUCLAIR T.B
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
DEVIN COOLEY S.J
JAKE ALLEN N.J
LOGAN THOMPSON VGK
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
CHARLIE LINDGREN WSH

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency OTT Players
24.0 BRADY TKACHUK SHANE PINTO DRAKE BATHERSON
15.7 PARKER KELLY BORIS KATCHOUK MARK KASTELIC
14.4 TIM STUTZLE MATHIEU JOSEPH CLAUDE GIROUX

DobberHockey Podcasts

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: