Ramblings: Callahan retires; Montreal PP; Byram; Chara; Chicago injuries – December 31

Michael Clifford

2020-12-31

Ryan Callahan has announced his retirement. He didn't play in 2019-20 due to injury and had been in and out of Tampa's lineup for a few years before that, so it did seem his time was winding down.

At his best, back with the Rangers, the guy was a multi-cat monster in fantasy. It is easy to forget he was relied upon for 20 goals and 45 points with over 200 shots and 200 hits for years. That is a sterling performance. Best wishes to him and his family moving forward.

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The hardest power plays to project are the ones with new pieces. So, when I look at the Montreal Canadiens in 2019-20, the guys they used on the power play, and the roster in 2020-21… there's some work to do.

The Habs had 11 forwards last year with at least 50 minutes of 5-on-4 time. The leader per game was Ilya Kovalchuk, who played with them for six weeks and is now in Russia; third was Max Domi, who is now in Columbus; fifth was Nick Suzuki, who is now the 1C; sixth was Joel Armia, who may now be their fifth RW. Half of their top-8 forwards by PPTOI/game in 2019-20 have either moved on or have a wildly different role with the team now.

How do you project so many moving pieces? We start with guys we know will be on the power play. For that, let's look to the playoffs.

The team ran a 4F/1D unit and a 3F/2D unit with the latter being the focus. If they do the same in 2020-21 – which, who knows, but it's the most recent data point we have – then we have seven forward spots to fill. Jonathan Drouin, Nick Suzuki, and Brendan Gallagher were heavily used, so I will assume they will again. Tomas Tatar floated between the two, so he's probably in. Jesperi Kotkaniemi is likely the centre on the second PP unit, so we're up to five. For now, I am assuming Corey Perry takes Joel Armia's role, so that's six. The question is what to do about Domi's role. He had played the half-wall whereas guys like Toffoli and Anderson aren't suited for that. That is probably Kotkaniemi's. So we need a down-low player, which is where Toffoli comes in.

That is my guess at the seven forwards the Habs use on the PP: Drouin, Suzuki, Gallagher, Tatar, Kotkaniemi, Perry, and Toffoli. Remember that even when Anderson was scoring goals in Columbus, it was with little PP time; I don't think they signed him hoping for eight PPGs a year. I do think there are tenuous holds here. Perry is probably in and out of the lineup and Drouin has been very inconsistent these last couple years. But, if health holds, I am wagering these seven forwards lead the Habs in PPTOI/game this season.

The question is whether they stick with what they did in the regular season or run it back with what they did in the postseason.

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For reference, the Dobber Guide (which is available now in the Dobber Shop) has them running two 4F/1D units, which is what they did in the regular season. The playoffs saw a more heavily-used top unit with 3F/2D. My inclination is the more recent scenario but just be aware that splitting time across two units or focusing on one unit usually produces very different results.

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Chara being in Washington now instead of Boston doesn’t change much for me for his fantasy outlook, but I think it’s an upgrade on the bottom pair. That is not nothing when it comes to team defence, and in turn, goaltending.

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Not to draw much from a handful of WJHC tournament games but it really does look like Bowen Byram is ready for the NHL. The problem is that Colorado is one of the very few NHL teams with too much defensive depth. Makar, Graves, Girard, and Toews are a lock for the lineup. Erik Johnson and Ian Cole are still around. They also have Conor Timmins. That is legitimately great depth.

Also, there's the ELC factor. If Byram burns a year this year, he will come up for his second contract at the same time Nathan MacKinnon is UFA. Between now and then, they have a handful of secondary players coming up, plus captain Gabriel Landeskog and Cale Makar. It would likely behoove them to delay Byram's ELC, especially where they don't really need him.

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The question becomes what to do with him. He may not be able to return to the WHL and can't go to the AHL. Does he practice with the team all year, playing basically a game a month? That doesn't seem great for development.

Whatever happens, whether he plays or not in the NHL this season isn't really up to him now, and that's one thing I don't like about pro sports.

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Stuetzle and Peterka looked great again yesterday in their win over Switzerland. Not that it was unexpected but the consistency they’ve shown regardless of the level of competition, in heavy minutes in bad circumstances, is very impressive. Stuetzle looks ready for the NHL.

It was a very entertaining game for different reasons. The first two periods were about watching Stuetzle and Peterka work the puck, and the final frame about Switzerland bringing a 4-0 game to a 5-4 game and a final scoring chance to tie it. Game of the tournament so far.

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When I was thinking about the impact of Jonathan Toews and Kirby Dach being out of Chicago's lineup for the year, I thought back to the Winnipeg Jets last year. They had lost their 2C from the end of the year/playoffs prior in Kevin Hayes, didn't really replace him, and then lost Mark Scheifele in early in their first game the playoffs. How did the Jets fare, process-wise by expected goals for per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, against a Calgary team that was nowhere near a Cup contender themselves? About 1.76, or roughly 10 percent worse than their regular season mark.

This isn't evidence of anything. I just remember watching how bad the Jets were without a top-6 centre on the roster, and that was with wingers like Connor, Laine, and Ehlers. When it comes to Chicago, I think a line of Kubalik-Strome-Kane can do well offensively at 5-on-5. Much like a line of Connor-Wheeler-Laine can do well for the Jets. Everyone else? Probably not worth consideration.

What concerns me most isn't that there isn't a centre for Kubalik/Kane to play with, because there is. Strome isn't Toews, and he's not even Dach, but he's good offensively. The concern is that Kubalik/Kane don't play with each other, because if Kane is on L1, whomever is stuck on anything other than the top line is in for a world of hurt (think Jeff Skinner last year). The more likely scenario, I believe, is that the team tries to make a line of Kubalik-Strome-DeBrincat work and then put Kane on his own line in hopes he can carry an entire line offensively, with a bit of help from someone like Carl Soderberg.

It will be interesting to see this all work because this team is nowhere near good enough for anything but coaches don't coach to lose. Could we see Kane approach his 2018-19 TOI when he was playing 22-23 minutes a night? I don't like his offensive prospects with both Toews/Dach out, but let's consider:

Kane played 686 minutes at 5-on-5 last year with neither Toews nor Dach. The team scored 2.88 goals per 60 minutes in those 686 minutes. League-wide, only three teams scored at a higher rate: Tampa Bay, Colorado, and Washington.

There is likely merit to a Kubalik-Strome-DeBrincat top line with Kane just playing as many minutes as he can with whomever he can elsewhere in the lineup. It is probably the only way for the team to remain somewhat competitive. Loading up the top line and expecting Janmark-Soderberg-DeBrincat to carry the load for the second line is probably asking too much.

To be clear, this is horrific for Toews and Dach, and bad for the team in general. I just don't think it's a death-knell fantasy-wise, and the ADP discounts now may be to our advantage.

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