Ramblings: Happy New Year! World Juniors Imbalance, Marchand Ready, Dubois Signs, Rising Goalies (Jan 1)

Ian Gooding

2021-01-01

Happy New Year, and let's hope 2021 is… waaaaay better. Usually we'd be excited about watching the upcoming Winter Classic, but you shouldn't need me to explain why it isn't on. We will probably need to wait a while before we see any real improvements and a return to normal, but at least there's a feeling of hope as we can finally rip the 2020 calendars off the walls.

I haven't watched every game in the World Junior tournament, and I had quite honestly checked out of the games where Canada was steamrolling Germany and Switzerland. However, I made a special point to watch the Sweden/Russia game on Thursday night, and I'd have to believe it was the best game of the World Junior tournament.

Sweden's 54-game preliminary round winning streak, which came to an end in this game with a 4-3 overtime loss, is quite remarkable. It seems odd that the Swedes have won only one gold medal during that span (in 2012), but I could see how the usual heavyweights don't quite get it together or turn it up a notch once they get to the playoff round.

Back to the one-sided games. On one hand they don't reflect well on the tournament and how many teams are included. Yet in order for the game of hockey to grow, there has to be a mix beyond the usual 7-8 teams every year. There probably isn't an easy answer for this. I've always thought a mercy rule would be a good idea, but then there's the goal differential tiebreaker. So things are probably going to stay the way they are.

Speaking of which, another one-sided game happened again today, with the Czech Republic defeating Austria 7-0. Shots were 61-15 in favor of the Czech Republic. I find these shot totals at least as astounding as the scores.

So maybe we needed to look to Canada and Finland for a more competitive game. Well, Canada held a 3-0 lead after two periods, which seemed flattering considering that they also had a 35-7 lead in shots. Finland did claw back in the third period with a goal and the edge in terms of shots (12-5), but Canada put it away with an empty-net goal to win 4-1. Canada wins Group A and faces the Czech Republic in the playoff round on Saturday.

It was more of the same in the US/Sweden game, with the Americans scoring two goals in each of the first and second periods to cruise to a 4-0 win. The US wins Group B and faces Slovakia in the quarterfinals, while Sweden faces natural rival Finland. Russia faces Germany in the other quarterfinal matchup.

For a more detailed team-by-team overview of the World Juniors, check out the Prospect Ramblings from our Journey writer Mr. Dave Hall. 

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Good news for Brad Marchand owners. According to Boston Hockey Now, it appears that the pesky forward should be ready for the start of training camp. Marchand underwent sports hernia surgery in September and was expected to be recovered sometime in January, so it sounds like he hasn't had any major setbacks.

Marchand currently has an ADP of 25 on Yahoo and finished sixth in league scoring in 2019-20 (87 points). He was a first-round pick in many 12-team fantasy drafts last season, so you'd be getting great value if you are able to grab him in the second round (in the teens or early 20s). Assuming no issues with the offseason surgery, of course.  

From the same article, David Pastrnak owners still shouldn't expect him to be ready for the start of the season. Pasta's offseason surgery was expected to sideline him until mid-February, and that still appears to be the case. If you're looking for a speculation grab to fill Pastrnak's spot on the top line with Marchand and Patrice Bergeron, UFA signing Craig Smith might be worth considering, as is Ondrej Kase and Anders Bjork. Maybe wait to see the training camp line combinations before deciding, if you can.

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Not long after Pierre LeBrun tweeted that Pierre-Luc Dubois "may be looking for a change of scenery," Dubois and the Blue Jackets agreed to a two-year, $10 million bridge deal. This probably makes sense for Dubois, who may be in a better position for a bigger payday in two years, when teams are (hopefully) better able to sign players to more lucrative deals. It also doesn't rule out the possibility that the Jackets trade Dubois if he really wants out, as his cap hit will be more manageable in the short term, and an acquiring team can craft their own long-term deal.

Dubois is currently just outside of the Top 100 Roto Rankings on the wait list. For more about Dubois, you can check out what I wrote about him in a Ramblings from back in October.

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It's a Dunn deal. The Blues took care of some unfinished business on Thursday, signing RFA defenseman Vince Dunn to a one-year contract worth $1.875 million. Dunn scored 23 points (9g-14) in 71 games, but he's of some interest in fantasy leagues because ten of those points were on the power play. The Blues essentially swapped Alex Pietrangelo with Torey Krug as their PP1 QB, so Dunn will probably have to compete with Colton Parayko and Justin Faulk for second-unit power-play minutes.

The Dunn signing puts the Blues one step closer to officially signing Mike Hoffman. Before that can happen, Vladimir Tarasenko and Alexander Steen need to be moved to LTIR, which will likely happen once the season starts in order to maximize cap space.

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The Islanders have signed Cory Schneider, Matt Martin, and Andy Greene. If you're wondering how Schneider fits into the Islanders plans with Semyon Varlamov and up-and-coming Ilya Sorokin, keep in mind the new taxi squads will allow teams to more easily carry three goalies. As well, Sorokin is waiver exempt, so Schneider could at least dress as a backup on many nights. Still, I'm not quite sure how this goaltending situation will play out.

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Since the Top 100 Roto Rankings were last updated on December 15, I've made a number of updates. The most notable have been promoting some goalies to reflect their Fantasy Hockey Geek value as well as their Yahoo average draft position (ADP). Because fantasy drafts will be coming up in early- to mid-January, I will be releasing the January update for the Roto Rankings within the next few days. This is earlier than normal and in the hopes that you can use these rankings in your fantasy drafts. In the meantime, be sure to let me know if you have any comments or feedback about the rankings.

In the meantime, I'm going to list three goalies that I'll be bumping up the Top 100 Roto Rankings. In other words, these goalies will likely be gone before their roto ranking. I will be moving more goalies up in the rankings, but these three will be the most significant risers.

Philipp Grubauer (Yahoo ADP 63.4)

If you're asked to list the top 5 goalies in the NHL, chances are you wouldn't think of adding Grubauer to that list. Yet in fantasy leagues, wins are the name of the game. Grubauer should get plenty of those, since he plays for a team that is among the short list of favorites to win the Stanley Cup. A key reason that Grubauer is not among the elite is that he has never played 40 games in an NHL season. This has a lot to do with the fact that he has been a backup for the majority of his NHL career, but staying healthy has also been a big challenge. Pavel Francouz (ADP 110.5) is being drafted in a lot of leagues for those reasons, as there's a chance he could end up playing more games (and thus earning more wins) than Grubauer.

Igor Shesterkin (Yahoo ADP 44.9)

Fantasy owners are showing a ton of faith in a goalie who has played just 12 regular-season games. However, that confidence is warranted. Among goalies who played at least the same number of games, only Florida backup Chris Driedger had a higher save percentage than Shesterkin (.932 SV%). With Henrik Lundqvist no longer in the fold, Shesterkin should have the net all to himself. The Rangers will be playing in the league's toughest division, and their defensive system isn't the strongest in the league. That could cut into Shesterkin's win totals and goals-against average a bit, but his save percentage should continue to be dynamite as he could be standing on his head most nights.

Ilya Samsonov (Yahoo ADP 45.9)

There's no reason that Samsonov shouldn't be the Capitals starter. Henrik Lundqvist, who was brought in to challenge Samsonov, will miss the season due to a heart condition. Craig Anderson, who was brought in on a PTO, could earn the backup role, but at age 39 he should not be the one carrying the mail. Vitek Vanecek had a strong season in the AHL last season and could challenge Samsonov more than you might think. Yet it appears that the Capitals have been preparing Samsonov for this role since last season, when they did not offer Braden Holtby an extension. On paper, the Capitals should make the playoffs in a tough Eastern Division, which should help Samsonov earn the wins you need.  

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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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