Ramblings: Eichel Misses Day 1 of Camp, Players Drafted Too High on Yahoo (Jan 2)

Ian Gooding

2021-01-02

The seven teams that did not make the 2019-20 postseason all returned to the ice for the first time since March. And with that came some news out of Buffalo that Jack Eichel missed Friday's practice because of an upper-body injury from off-ice training. The Sabres have listed him as day-to-day, while coach Ralph Krueger said he expects him back within the next couple days, so sounds like this is nothing to ring the alarm bells about.

In case Eichel's injury affects his ability to start the season, here are some way-too-early Sabres line combinations from their first day of camp. Obviously this would be a plum opportunity for Casey Mittelstadt, if you've been waiting on him for a while.

*

We might get to see some outdoor games this season after all, although they will look very different from the packed baseball/football stadiums that we've seen in the past. Lake Tahoe could make for some amazing visuals though.

*

If you are serious about fantasy hockey and have room for one more league on your portfolio, the Dobber Tiered Invitational is looking for new members. Go to this Forum post to find out more.

*

Leading up to the many fantasy drafts that will be taking place over the next couple weeks, I'm going to try to help you with your roto league draft. Many of you will be participating in Yahoo leagues, which provide their own rankings as well as average draft position (ADP). As I participate in mock drafts and prepare for my own with the help of Fantasy Hockey Geek, I've noticed a few players that I believe are being drafted too high on Yahoo.

Keep in mind that my analysis is for multicategory leagues that will include the default Yahoo categories.  These categories are goals, assists, plus/minus, shots, power-play points, and hits. Also, I'm using ADP as opposed to Yahoo ranking because Yahoo ranking may not be consistent from league to league. I understand that ADP may change daily, so check for it under Draft Analysis in Yahoo Fantasy before determining where to draft a player. In the live draft window, you can sort by ADP instead of Yahoo ranking.  

If you participate in a multicategory league and would like projections in the categories listed above and more, I recommend purchasing the Fantasy Hockey Geek Draft Kit. If you've bought the Fantasy Guide already, there is a coupon code on page 8 for 40 percent off. If you haven't purchased the Fantasy Guide or the Geek Draft Kit yet, consider combining them in a Platinum Subscription where you can take advantage of these two products and much more!

Mikko Rantanen (Yahoo ADP 15.3)

I've been told in the past that I've ranked Rantanen too low on the Top 100 Roto Rankings. True, he deserves a high ranking for being a point-per-game scorer over the past three seasons. Over that span, he's 13th in points-per-game (1.08) among players who have played at least 190 games. So in pure points leagues, he's ranked about where he should be.

What drags him down in multicategory leagues is the lack of shots. Rantanen has never taken 200 shots in a single season, which is why he should never be held in the same regard in roto leagues as a high-volume shooter like teammate Nathan MacKinnon. Rantanen is also not an overly physical player, so the hits and blocked shots will need to come from elsewhere.

Brayden Point (Yahoo ADP 17.0)

Point and Rantanen turn out to be very similar players. Compare the following non-counting stats from 2019-20:

 SH%PTS/GP
Point17.70.97
Rantanen17.80.98

I'm not using counting stats in the above comparison because of the number of games that Rantanen missed last season due to injury. One similarity that also isn't captured in the table above is that neither Point nor Rantanen take a high number of shots. Point has only exceeded 200 shots once, which is why a high year-to-year shooting percentage may not always be a positive indicator to a player's multicategory value. As well, the smallish Point is not an overly physical player either.

I noticed that another source had Point ranked in its top 10. I know there's some recency effect with his superb playoff performance, but we have to look at a larger sample size than that. In pure scoring leagues, Point's ADP makes sense. In a multicategory league, I'd wait another round.

Cale Makar (Yahoo ADP 29.8)

Makar is currently being drafted as the third defenseman behind Victor Hedman and John Carlson and ahead of Norris Trophy winner Roman Josi. Given Makar's near point-per-game output (0.88 PTS/GP) in his rookie season, I don't have a major issue with him being drafted in the top 5 if the league is pure scoring.

📢 advertisement:

It's possible that the more non-scoring categories are in your league, the further Makar's value falls. There's that low shot total again. Among defensemen who played at least 25 games, Makar's 6.1 SOG/60 placed him just outside of the top 30. His 121 shots placed him outside of the top 50 among defenseman, although Makar also missed 13 games due to injury. Makar's hit total (45) is also relatively low. If your league counts blocked shots, you'll also need to find other blueliners that can more effectively fill that category.

Quinn Hughes (Yahoo ADP 55.5)

Like Makar, I don't have any doubt about Hughes' ability to score. In addition, you could probably talk me into this ranking more than you could about Makar (his ADP when I started to write this was about 49). In pure scoring leagues, I'd pick Makar slightly ahead of Hughes. However, you will have to draft Hughes as a forward occupying a defensive spot – taking on both the good and the bad.

We know what the good is and can be, but you'll want to move Hughes down your ranking if your league is big on bangers categories. His blocked shots total is comparable to Makar's. The hits category shows the largest void, as Hughes took only seven hits all season. Hughes took 22 PIM in 2019-20, which isn't the lowest total out there but is far from the highest.

The only player who is as fantasy relevant as Hughes but with a similar hit total is Johnny Gaudreau (just one in 2019-20!) They may be similarly ranked because Gaudreau will score more points and take more shots, but Hughes is a defenseman. Still, that's words to the wise that Gaudreau should not be ranked extremely high in roto leagues either.

Brock Boeser (Yahoo ADP 65.9)

Boeser's ranking was around 50 about a week ago, so it's already trending closer to where it should be. The only thing still explaining a ranking this high is that a lot of Canucks fans have been participating in Yahoo drafts so far. Unlike some of the others, I don't even think Boeser should be ranked this high in scoring leagues, let alone roto leagues.

I still hold out hope that Boeser will score 30 goals in a season one day. Injuries have been holding him back, as he has missed at least 12 games in each of his three full seasons because of various injuries. His injuries have been all over the map and not all from the same troublesome area, but his inclusion on the Band-Aid Boy list suggests this is at least a concern.

If you need a winger, you're much better off drafting Kyle Connor (ADP 69.5) in that spot if you can, or drafting Travis Konecny (ADP 89.5), Mike Hoffman (ADP 90.3) or Kevin Fiala (ADP 94.1) a few rounds later.

Miro Heiskanen (Yahoo ADP 70.0)

There is mountains of data and video evidence that suggests that Heiskanen will win the Norris Trophy one day. The thing is, the top real-life defensemen aren't always the top fantasy defensemen. That is because d-men are evaluated more on their defensive skills than forwards are. Stats like hits, blocked shots, and time on ice might close this gap somewhat, but there still is a noticeable gap.

Those who reach for Heiskanen will note his point-per-game scoring during the playoffs (26 points in 27 games). Those points were concentrated earlier in the playoffs, as Heiskanen's scoring in the conference final and Stanley Cup Final (five points in 11 games) reflected more of his regular-season scoring. In addition, his 6.1 SOG/60 was on par with Makar as listed above.

Maybe I'm bringing this up because there was a major bidding war on Heiskanen in my auction league that went well past what I was willing to pay for him (even though I needed defensemen badly). But I'm also thinking that John Klingberg (Yahoo ADP 93.2) could provide better value, as their point totals could be remarkably similar.

*

To keep things balanced, tomorrow I plan to list players who I believe are being drafted too low in Yahoo leagues. In the meantime, feel free to share other players you believe are being drafted too high in the comments below.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 28 - 19:03 OTT vs CHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 TOR vs WSH
Mar 28 - 19:03 MTL vs PHI
Mar 28 - 19:03 PIT vs CBJ
Mar 28 - 19:03 FLA vs NYI
Mar 28 - 19:03 CAR vs DET
Mar 28 - 20:03 MIN vs S.J
Mar 28 - 20:03 STL vs CGY
Mar 28 - 20:03 WPG vs VGK
Mar 28 - 21:03 EDM vs L.A
Mar 28 - 21:03 COL vs NYR
Mar 28 - 22:03 SEA vs ANA
Mar 28 - 22:03 VAN vs DAL
Mar 28 - 22:03 ARI vs NSH

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
TAGE THOMPSON BUF
JJ PETERKA BUF
JORDAN GREENWAY BUF
ANTHONY DUCLAIR T.B
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
ALEKSEI KOLOSOV PHI
JOONAS KORPISALO OTT
UKKO-PEKKA LUUKKONEN BUF
KAREL VEJMELKA ARI
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CHI Players
26.7 PHILIPP KURASHEV RYAN DONATO CONNOR BEDARD
19.3 LANDON SLAGGERT JASON DICKINSON JOEY ANDERSON
17.7 TAYLOR RADDYSH TYLER JOHNSON NICK FOLIGNO

DobberHockey Podcasts

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: