The Journey: The WJC Effect

Dave Hall

2021-01-02

I think I speak for all of us when I say…bring on 2021. Happy New Year’s, fellow prospect enthusiasts, and I hope you all had a wonderful holiday season. 

As always, there is no better way to ring in the new year than a suspenseful World Junior competition. I don’t know about you, but for me, this annual tournament is a life long tradition and it’s one that I obsess over. Perhaps even more so than the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Oddly enough, this year’s tournament fell at the perfect time for fantasy GMs – draft season. Why could this be a bad thing? Well, one can argue that the World Junior Championships are not fully indicative of a young player’s true potential. With an exclamation point on this year’s competition, where parody seems almost impossible to find, players have a tendency of outperforming (or under) their true upsides.

Let’s take Marco Rossi as a perfect example. Suiting up for Team Austria – who totaled just one goal and allowed 29 through four games – Rossi failed to register a single point. In fact, he managed just 10 shots, ran a minus-6 rating, and was basically non-existent throughout the entire tournament. 

Of course, we know that Rossi is a full-blown beast, worthy of putting up 100-plus points at the junior level (which he accomplished last season). He's even got a strong chance of cracking an NHL roster in less than two weeks time. Yet, if you don’t follow the junior levels often and hadn’t watched Rossi over the past year, your view on him may not be equivalent to the worth of his true draft stock. This may result in you fading him during your upcoming draft, which believe me, would result in pure disappointment down the road.

On the opposite end, we have Trevor Zegras, who has looked nothing short of godly throughout this year's tournament. Is he an extremely talented player? Yes. Is he one of the better prospects to target in dynasty formats? Absolutely. But despite his performance, is he a shoo-in for immediate deployment and worthy of a redraft format fantasy league? Probably not.  

Don’t get me wrong, Zegras is phenomenal, and one of my personal favorites to target. However, he still has elements of his game to work on, mainly board play and perhaps efforts in the defensive zone. He also has just one year of collegiate hockey under his belt, so the jump to the pro ranks should endure some growing pains. 

I sense the buzz around him at the moment and have a feeling that he may be targeted higher than usual, at least higher than he would have gone pre-tournament. This could easily end with disappointment come opening day, if and when he begins the year in the AHL. Of course, the extended taxi squads could fully change his immediate outcome, but you get my point.

With all that said, this is a fantastic opportunity to get a glimpse of a few prospects that fantasy owners otherwise have a hard time seeing on a day-to-day basis. Especially those among the Euro or Russian circuits.

I bring all this up because I just lived this myself. I happened to be caught in the midst of a deep draft, one that was primarily focused on recently drafted prospects. I will admit, this tournament definitely swayed a few of my picks. Therefore, I have called this the WJC effect.

Here are a few prospects who have caught my eye and have fully swayed me towards drafting them, perhaps higher than I would have pre-tournament.

Topi Niemela, Finland

I would be lying if I said that I saw his WJC production coming. In my books, Ville Heinola was the clear choice for Finland’s top defensive producer, but I missed the boat. Don't get it twisted, Heinola has been tremendous for the Finns, but Niemela, a Maple Leaf product, has been lights out. At the time of writing this, he sits sixth (tied) in the tournament with seven points and has recorded at least one in each game, thus far.

I doubt that he is able to translate this offensive surge to the pro ranks; in fact, I am almost certain of that. However, he is a terrific two-way contributor for the organization down the road and should be a safe pick to be a second-to-third pairing, right-handed defender. 

Noel Gunler, Sweden

Goals. If you are looking for a long-term prospect with tremendous offensive upside, Gunler is the perfect match for you. Taken in the second round (41st overall) by the Canes, the 19-year-old has brought his talents from the SHL to the national level and has been very loud throughout the week. He currently sits tops on the team with four goals and five points. At 6-2, he has good size on him, but don't draft his rights expecting to see peripheral production – he is all offense. Three of his four goals in the tournament have been absolute lasers, going post and in. 

He has been dipping his toes in the SHL since he was 17 years old and is finally enjoying full-time duties this season. He screams boom or bust, but if developed, can turn into a tremendous steal. He ended up being my swayed pick this year, and I have absolutely zero regrets.

Rodion Amirov, Russia

Playing on Russia's top-line alongside Vancouver Canucks draftee Vasili Podkolzin, Amirov has showcased his tremendous versatile game. Instantly, he passes the eye test, with incredibly fluid skating and shiftiness. If you are into the slim build, east-west player, you will love Amirov's mojo. To top it off, he plays with a slight edge and has a tremendous forecast for predicting the play. 

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He has enjoyed a respectable season amongst men in the KHL, where he has produced eight points through 23 games. He may be the safest option out of this crop and certainly holds strong potential to be a contributor as a top-six forward in a few years’ time. 

JJ Paterka, Germany 

Paterka is a contributor for one of the more intriguing and entertaining lines within the tournament, skating alongside future star Tim Stuetzle and undrafted German Florian Elias. Between the three, they have combined for 28 points (Paterka with 10) and have played rather well, even when playing opposite of elite competition – they even managed to produce in a 16-2 dismantling at the hands of Canada.

Drafted in the second round by the Sabres, the 18-year-old has shown his worthiness to be considered a "should have been" first-round prospect. He is not necessarily elite in any department, but extremely solid in all. His most impressive attribute is his motor – he refuses to quit on plays and is an absolute headache to defend against. His tenacity is tiresome, and his quick stride allows him to beat out the majority of puck races. He likely won't contribute as a top-half point contributor, but he will provide assistance in many categories in a middle-six role.

Brad Lambert, Finland

I may have a new favorite prospect, and he’s not eligible until the 2022 draft. Lambert, 17, joined team Finland as one of just five 2022 eligibles in the tournament – and if I hadn’t told you, you would never know. He is quite an impressive player. He is calm, skilled, and a future killer. He is extremely poised with the puck and has a terrific ability to create rushes on his lonesome. He can create opportunities off the rush, and when inside the zone, demonstrates terrific vision to set up his surrounding cast. 

Of course, he is a long way away from NHL deployment and depending on your league's format, you may not even be able to draft him yet. However, he is too fun to not mention, and he may be giving OHL's exceptional prospect Shane Wright a run for his money for that number one spot in 2022.

Vasili Ponomaryov, Russia

He tailed off through the second half of their four-game preliminary stage, but in Teams Russia’s first two matches, Ponomaryov was arguable their best player – and was in my books. He brings a nice addition of sandpaper to a line-up and has a keen eye for finding teammates. He paired with recent Dallas Stars draftee Mavrik Bourque in Shawinigan last season, providing 49 points through 57 matches and will do so for the next year (plus).

Drafted by the Hurricanes this past entry draft, the versatile forward has some growing to do before his jump to the NHL level. However, he’s a solid mid-range draft choice and should provide a plethora of additional categories for fantasy owners. I have really enjoyed what he has to offer.

Matthew Beniers, USA

Beniers, 18, is a potential top-10 eligible for this year's draft, and his play during this competition is showing the world why. Not only does he have the skill to produce points – which he has shown with six points through eight matches as a freshman with the University of Michigan – but he has a tireless work ethic and wins the majority of his battles. His compete level is through the roof, and his skating ability is bar none.

This year is full of inconclusive draft placements, but I personally have a hard time finding a reason why this kid does not go within the top half of the draft in July.

*****

Thank you for your continued support, and enjoy the remainder of the tournament. As always, follow me on Twitter @hall1289 for prospect updates.

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