Happy New Year and welcome to 2021! I hope everyone is enjoying junior hockey and are getting ready for January 13th.

One of the many great things about writing a weekly column is that I can look back and see how right or wrong I was about certain things. Take my predictions for last year's rookies, I did have Dominik Kubalik (#16 on my list), Victor Olofsson (#15), Quinn Hughes (#4) and Cale Makar (#2), but whiffed on Adam Fox, Nick Suzuki, John Marino, Mackenzie Blackwood and had Jack Hughes at #1 and Kaapo Kakko at #3. One lesson learned is don't overestimate what an 18-year-old can do in their rookie season as it is very rare to have someone step in and dominate.

Dobber has his own Top 50 rookies list in the Fantasy Guide, and David Hall also chimes in with 20 picks of his own in there. But I thought I would take a crack at it again myself.

Here is part one of my top 20:

#20 – Alexander Romanov – (D) – Montreal

The 20-year-old 38th overall pick in 2018 has Montreal fans excited to have him with the team after two seasons and 86 games in the KHL as a teenager. His offensive ceiling might not be as high as some of the other rookie defensemen, but he should be a solid top-six pairing who will be able to step up if either Shea Weber or Jeff Petry get injured. He should play 16-18 minutes per game and in a 56-game season might see 15-25 points.

#19 – Grigori Denisenko – (F) – Florida

The 20-year-old 15th overall pick in 2018 by Florida could benefit from the departures of Mike Hoffman and Evgeni Dadonov but with the addition of Anthony Duclair, it appears that he and Owen Tippett will be battling for the one spot available. He was not skating in the KHL this season but did manage six goals and six assists in 38 games last season in a year he captained Russia in the WJC. The Panthers won't taxi squad him should he not make the team, so this a risky pick as it could be all or nothing for 20-25 points in 56 games.

#18 – Jake Oettinger – (G) – Dallas

Oettinger has seemingly inherited the backup role in net with Anton Khudobin as the starter. Now 22 years old, the former 26th overall pick in 2017 will be the starter in Dallas sooner than later. Khudobin is 34 years old and has never been the 1A in his career, so things could go sideways and Oettinger might get more starts than originally intended this season. 20-25 starts might be a conservative rookie year for Oettinger but that could increase to 30 if Khudobin has any injury or struggles. Oettinger could see 12-18 wins this year. 

#17 – Pius Suter – (F) – Chicago

I'm going a little off the board for this pick as the 24-year-old Swiss was signed by Chicago in June 2020 on a two-way contract for one season. He has averaged close to a point per game in the Swiss Elite League over the past four seasons and had 30 goals in 50 games in 2019-20 and has played six games this season with five points. With the ongoing health issues to Jonathan Toews, Chicago will need some skill up front and I think Suter will be on the taxi-squad at the very least and should see an early opportunity in the top six. If Suter can play 50 games, it should translate to 20-25 points.

#16 – Quinton Byfield – (F) – Los Angeles

I'm trying to learn my lesson from last year and Byfield is a perfect example. While the young 18-year-old (August 19th birthday) has the size and pace to play in the NHL no problem, the 2nd overall pick in 2020 might need some time to adjust to outsizing opponents in junior hockey to create his space. More than likely he will start on the wing in Los Angeles and hopefully transition to center eventually. That position is suddenly looking very strong for the Kings, with Anze Kopitar, Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Turcotte and Byfield in the mix. There is an opportunity on this roster as it stands and he should be good for 50 games, but I would temper my point hopes to around 20-30 this season.

#15 – Kaapo Kahkonen – (G) – Minnesota

With the departure of Devan Dubnyk, the door has opened for Kahkonen to become the backup to Cam Talbot who was brought in to be the starter. The 24-year-old Kahkonen played very well last season in the AHL with 26 wins in 34 games while posting a 92.7 save percentage and was rewarded with five games with the Wild in which he won three of them. Talbot is not a guarantee to repeat his fine play from last season and what is a 70/30 split for Talbot could become 50/50 very early on, which might translate to 20-30 starts for Kahkonen and perhaps 11-17 wins.

#14 – Nicholas Robertson – (F) – Toronto

Robertson is a diminutive 19-year-old that pushed his way into the Toronto lineup for four games during last year's playoffs and didn't disappoint. It is likely that he is given more time to play at the AHL level this season, but I believe he is too skilled to be left off the team behind the likes of Joe Thornton, Jimmy Vesey, Ilya Mikheyev or Alexander Barabanov as two of these players look to be currently pencilled into the top six. If given the opportunity, Robertson could get 30-40 games and be good for 20-25 points and perhaps 10-15 goals.

#13 – Kyle Capobianco – (D) – Arizona

Capobianco will need to clear waivers to be sent down this year, so the Coyotes will need to keep him on the oyster or lose him. He has seen short call-ups over the past three seasons but hasn't been able to stick on this roster, but I believe this is the year at 23 years old. Over the past two AHL seasons, he has played 82 games and has 17 goals and 52 assists, which is something this team is screaming for along with a genuine power-play quarterback. History has taught us that Adam Clendening or Derrick Pouliot AHL productions were not transferable to the NHL, but Capobianco might be worth the gamble for what could be 20-30 points in 56 games.

#12 – Jason Robertson – (F) – Dallas

The 21-year-old 39th overall pick in 2017 had an impressive rookie season in the AHL with 25 goals and 47 points in 60 games, while getting three games with the Stars and adding one assist. It is tough to say that a team that made it to the Stanley Cup finals needs more scoring (especially when they produced so well in the playoffs), but they do and especially on the left side, where Jamie Benn, Joel Kiviranta, Andrew Cogliano and Justin Dowling are competing with Robertson for the top-six role at LW. With the long-term injury to Tyler Seguin, this need is even more exposed and should result in Robertson getting a longer look in the top-six. If Robertson can make it and play 56 games he should be able to produce 25-30 points.

#11 – Ty Smith – (D) – New Jersey

Sometimes a team's needs are so obvious that you question why a coaching/management group wouldn't just make it happen right away rather than wait. Look at the Vancouver Canucks, last season and skating Alex Edler out on the first unit of the power play for the first four or five games of the season rather than Quinn Hughes. I understand they don't want to put pressure on a young kid before they are ready, but sometimes it just seems a waste of time not to try. I think that is the case in New Jersey this season with Ty Smith. He might not be Quinn Hughes, but the 20-year-old 17th overall pick from 2018 is not far off. The options for New Jersey are P.K. Subban and Damon Severson and I get excited about the prospect of Smith with Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and perhaps Alexander Holtz on this power play for years to come. If he makes the team and plays 56 games we could see 25-30 points.

This is always a tough process to narrow down the rookie class to only 20 players, so honorable mentions to Tyler Benson, Artem Zub, Nils Hoglander and Alexander Romanov who I found very tempting to include, but just couldn't assure myself that they would get the necessary games in the NHL this season.

Thanks for reading, and let me know if you want me to focus on any players or topics by messaging me below or following me on Twitter @gampbler15.