Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Here though, instead of there being three bowls of porridge I’m covering three skaters and declaring one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating just how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), or how cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or how “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

It's time for one last Goldipucks edition before the puck finally drops on 2020-21. Because it'll have been more than nine months since they last played an NHL game, this month's column will focus on players from three of the seven NHL teams which did not qualify for the play-in or playoffs, to help refresh your memory about them. The players are Logan Couture, Jack Eichel, and Connor Brown. As usual, your task is to stop here to decide which of the three was too hot, which was too cold, and whose output was just right, then to read on to see if your predictions turned out correct.

Logan Couture

It was 2019-20 to forget for the Sharks, who reached the conference finals and Cup finals in two of the previous four seasons. If making a list of players to blame, it surely would not start with Couture, who, despite the team's struggles, still ended up with a 62 point scoring pace. With Couture set to turn 32 during the upcoming season, and on a team many predict will continue to fare poorly, should we presume he'll continue to show his age? On the contrary – I'd bank on him doing better for 2020-21.

Couture scored at a .65 point per game pace every single season from age 21 to 30. Since 2000-01, that feat has been accomplished by ten other forwards, nine of whom have already played their age-32 season. Of the nine, four posted better than a point per game numbers at that age, while only one (Phil Kessel in 2019-20) failed to score 65 points; and the average point total of the nine was 75 points. In other words, his past consistency is a harbinger of continued success at age 32, and perhaps even beyond.

One of those nine players was Anze Kopitar, for whom the 2019-20 season represented his age 32 campaign. If poolies are concerned Couture won't be able to play well in view of how poorly the Sharks figure to be offensively, they need only look to Kopitar's 69 point scoring pace for 2019-20 as part of a Kings team that tallied 177 goals in 70 games, which was three less than San Jose's 180. And unlike LA, the Sharks were missing three of their key offensive players – Couture, Erik Karlsson, and Tomas Hertl – for at least 20% of the season, making their offense suffer more than would've otherwise been the case. Granted Kopitar plays more than Couture per game, but their PP time is comparable and Couture also shoots the puck more than Kopitar. All things considered, if Kopitar could do what he did at age 32, Couture should be able to at least equal that scoring rate.

There's also a glaringly unsustainable bad luck element to Couture's 2019-20 season — the fact that he didn't score a single power-play goal, after averaging one per every nine games over the past three seasons. Add to that Couture having shot a couple of percentage points below his norm, and right there he should've had a half dozen or more added points, which would have brought his season-long scoring pace at or near 70 points.

Couture also has shown remarkable consistency in his luck metrics, with an IPP of 68-71% in three of the past four seasons, a secondary assist percentage ranging from 33-39% in each of the past three seasons, and an offensive zone starting percentage that has ranged from 49% to 52% going back to 2014-15. Add to that ice time that's been between 18:32 and 18:36 in each of the past three seasons and PP time from 2:45 to 3:07, and Couture's ability to score should not be in jeopardy any time soon.

Lastly, Couture's scoring pace had climbed for three seasons, from 57 in 2015-16 to 58 in 2016-17 to 64 in 2017-18 to 70 in 2018-19 before dipping to 62 in 2019-20. But Couture's scoring rate prior to him suffering his injury – and also before the injuries to Karlsson and Hertl – was 36 points in 44 games or 67 points. So presuming all are healthy and Couture isn't plagued by bad luck, he should be able to score at a 70+ point pace.

There's a misconception that bad teams mean bad fantasy players. Guys like Kopitar and Couture show that's not always the case. And looking at Couture, especially given what we saw from Kopitar last season plus from other 32-year-olds with a track record of steady production, and in view of Couture's steady metrics except for extremely back luck when it came to the PP, the expectation should be he'll again climb back to a 70+ point scoring pace for 2020-21. As such, his 2019-20 was TOO COLD and he gets a rating of 3.0.

Jack Eichel

What's Eichel done over the course of his career? Oh, just score at a higher pace each and every season, all the while for a Sabres team that, since he entered the league, has tallied the fifth-fewest goals among all NHL squads. With Eichel having turned 24 a couple of months ago, and the Sabres figuring to be a team that will only be getting better, it seems like a lock for Eichel to see his scoring pace rise again in 2020-21, right? I wouldn't be so sure.

One key in looking at Eichel's jump in scoring is his goals per game rate for 2019-20, which was .53 per game after never having been even 0.4 per game in a prior season. The reason he scored more goals was his shooting percentage, which was 9.7% prior to 2019-20, and jumped to 15.9%, meaning it rose by 64%.

Could it be that by taking fewer shots (3.34 per game in 2019-20, versus 3.93 in 2018-19) Eichel was more selective, therefore giving him a better chance at scoring goals? While his SOG per game rate did decline from last year's career-best rate, it was more in keeping with what he did in the two prior seasons, making it so 2018-19 was likely the outlier. Moreover, his SOG totals from 1-15, 16-30, and 31+ feet barely changed for the better versus 2018-19. So Eichel's goal total does appear to be significantly inflated.

Looking also at the top-scoring centers of the past 20+ years who've all gone on to reach their 30s by now, we get names like Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Steven Stamkos, Nicklas Backstrom, Joe Thornton, and Vincent Lecavalier, the first four all established their career-best by their fifth season in the league. Thornton and Lecavalier were later bloomers; but unlike Eichel, they didn't have a steady upward trajectory, and thus are less comparable. So while it is tempting to figure Eichel will indeed continue to improve, especially as his other teammates do so, the reality is past precedent suggests he should already have established what will be his career-best scoring rate by this time in his now five-year career.

So based on his inflated goal total, why then am I not predicting Eichel's numbers to drop? Simply put, Eichel's deployment in 2019-20 was the best among any NHL center over the past five years when it comes to pure scoring. He skated over 22:00 per game, with 3:51 of that being PP time and only 0:16 of that being SH duty, and no center in any of the past five seasons had more total ice time plus more PP Time while being saddled with less SH duty. And if we look at centers that had the best deployments other than Eichel, we get Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in 2019-20 and Nathan MacKinnon in 2018-19 and 2019-20. The average scoring rate for those players in those collective four seasons was 115 points.

What did these teams have in common? They scored 0.44+ goals per game beyond what Buffalo did in 2019-20, reinforcing that as Buffalo improves, Eichel will as well, not only due to a rising tide lifting all boats but with him being the team's best player. And although it is tempting to look at Eichel's 27 PPPts in 68 games for 2019-20 and think he's close to maxed out there; the Sabres PP had a 2019-20 conversion percentage in the bottom third of the NHL, so that has room to improve, with Eichel likely to be a major beneficiary, what with a PP IPP in 2019-20 of 84.4% in 2019-20 and of 72%+ in three of his prior four seasons.

The needle suggesting where Eichel's scoring is headed is either pointed down (due to his unsustainably high shooting percentage) or up (his ice times and the team around him improving) or sideways (past comparables mostly having their best season by their fifth in the league). What's the end result? Eichel's 2019-20 was JUST RIGHT, with a rating of 5.25. Eichel should stick right around a 95 point scoring pace for 2020-21, with a chance to jump to 100 if his team improves and he can avoid coming back to earth in terms of his shooting percentage. Could he still be a 100-110 point player at some point in the future? Yes, if the team around him really improves while his skills also are maintained. But best to figure him for more like 95-100 to avoid overpaying for him in draft or trade.

CONNOR BROWN

After a three-season stint in Toronto that saw him used as a bottom-six forward, Brown was dished to the Senators, wherein his first year he landed on the radar of poolies by logging over 20 minutes per game and posting a 50 point scoring pace. Still, only 26, are there as good or even better things to come for Brown? In a word, no; signs point to a scoring drop for 2020-21.

Upon arriving in Ottawa, Brown became an immediate focal point, seeing time with the team's arguably best two forwards in J.G. Pageau and Brady Tkachuk. That paid dividends, as Brown tallied 12 points in his first 13 games. But it was downhill from there, as his early scoring binge meant he amassed his remaining 31 points in 58 contests.

This was despite Brown's SOG rate rising in those 58 games as compared to his rate in his first 13 contests. Also, Brown's shooting percentage has dropped in each full season that he's been in the NHL. Usually, if anything, the opposite occurs, as a player matures and gains more experience. So although Brown shot more in 2019-20 than any past season, his shooting percentage dropping made it so those added shots didn't translate to many goals. What's more – for 2019-20 Brown had more shots from 0-15 feet than either 16-30 or 31+ feet, which also is a rarity for players who aren't net-front mules. What does this all mean? Brown does not have a deft scoring touch, and, at 26, isn't likely to suddenly develop one.

Placing aside what Brown did in 2019-20, there's also the reality that Ottawa went out and landed Evgeni Dadonov as a UFA. Dadonov and Brown both are RWs, so Dadonov likely will relegate Brown to the middle or even bottom six, ala more like the role he had in Toronto. That is an issue, as Brown already started only 39% of his shifts in the offensive zone last season. While one could see that and say it shows how good he was that he still managed to score at a 50 point pace; however, the highest-scoring pace for any of the 44 forwards who played in 40+ games and had a lower OZ% than his was 34, and only two had a pace of 30+. So Brown likely overachieved, and the presence of Dadonov will make it so his OZ% likely will not rise, in turn causing his scoring to drop.

The presence of Dadonov, not to mention newly acquired Alex Galchenyuk and Derek Stepan, to go along with the maturation of Ottawa's younger players, also likely will cause Brown's PP time, which already consisted of him taking the ice for only a third of Ottawa's available man-advantage minutes, to fall. And although only four of Brown's 43 points came on the PP, there was a chance he could have seen more minutes had Ottawa just maintained the status quo. On top of all that, looking at wingers last season who had four or fewer PPPts, Brown's 0.61 points per game was tops, further suggesting his scoring was higher than it should've been.

For 2019-20, Brown was essentially in the right place at the right time, plus seemingly overachieved given his fast start, poor goal-scoring ability, very low OZ% and lack of PP scoring. Collectively these made his 2019-20 TOO HOT and resulted in him getting a rating of 8.5, as he likely should've scored closer to a point per every other game. For 2020-21, he'll be pushed down the depth chart to make way for players – notably Dadonov – who are more befitting a place on a scoring line. It is still possible that Brown sees some second-line duty and gets PP scraps; however, his time in the spotlight is likely over and poolies should expect him to score at a ~40 point pace barring injuries to scorers or the Senators as a team undergoing a marked improvement. 

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Next Week's column, and Questions for Mailbag 

As I do every opening night, next week's column will be my 15 Fearless Forecasts for the upcoming season. The following week I'll go back to my usual schedule, which means a Forum Buzz column. And note that my monthly mailbag column is just a few weeks away, so be sure to send your question(s) to me for in-depth, deep-dive answers. To get your question(s) to me, you can either (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, (2) send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line. Please do not send keeper questions, as the next mailbag won't publish until after the season is underway.