Capped: Team-by-team buy-and-sell – Part 8

Alexander MacLean

2021-01-07

Week Seven is done and that means Week Eight (the final week) is upon us. Let's stick to your new year's resolutions of only making good decisions for your fantasy teams. To help with that, we have the last group of players to look into buying and selling. This week we're covering Buffalo, Boston, Arizona, and Anaheim.

You can find the rest of the coverage in order here, here, here, here, here, here, and here.

To reiterate for the uninitiated, this multi-week feature will cover each NHL team, analyzing one player to buy and one to sell. These recommendations will be based on their performance versus cap hit. That means in non-cap leagues, some of these suggestions may not be as relevant, but that doesn't mean the analysis isn't relevant. Generally, these players will either be riding new contracts into the season or be expected to have a large shift in value, for one reason or another. We went alphabetically last year, so this time we're going for the reverse.

 

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Buffalo Sabres

Buy: Sam Reinhart

Current Cap Hit: $5,200,000

Scouring the Buffalo Sabres' roster for buy-low candidates is typically a fool's errand, as there aren't a lot of options to consider in the first place, and then finding players who will out-perform their expectations is even tougher. Rasmus Dahlin has the potential to break out at or above the level of Cale Makar & Quinn Hughes, but his owner likely knows that and flat out won't sell him. Reinhart then becomes the best 'buy' bet, on the Sabres. He broke out to a 65-point pace right on schedule after his 200th game, but took a small step back last year to a 59-point pace as the whole Sabres team struggled. With the addition of Taylor Hall as a possible new linemate both at even strength and on the powerplay, Reinhart should track for closer to 70 points than the sub-60 pace from last year. At the moment Victor Olofsson is riding shotgun with the big boys on the top line, but don't expect that to last all season.

 

Sell: Eric Staal

Current Cap Hit: $3,250,000

Eric Staal's value in fantasy leagues has been tough to predict, especially in cap leagues. At this point in most careers, the perceived value of a 36-year-old would be close to zero. However, in Staal's case his value has actually gotten a bit of a perceived boost due to the move to Buffalo. The fact he has a long track record of name recognition as well as a manageable salary means that there is 'sell-high' value to be taken advantage of in most cap leagues. Concerningly, Staal's shots have fallen off drastically (though his production was buoyed by high percentages), his ice time was reduced last year (despite there not being a lot of talent on the Wild to compete with him), and he won't be used on the top powerplay unit in Buffalo. All that to say, this is the time to get off of the Staal train. Take the best offer you can get before the season starts.

 

Boston Bruins

Buy: Craig Smith

Current Cap Hit: $3,100,000

I covered initial love for the Smith signing here, but I wanted to dive into a few of the numbers that make me so optimistic of his outlook in Boston. Smith has averaged over 16 minutes per game just once in his career, and that was his initial breakout season of 2013-2014. In the years since, he has seen only two coaches until John Hynes took over halfway through last season. None of these coaches would play Smith in a second line role despite his excellent ability to generate offence, as was explored in this analytical article by JFresh. Meanwhile in Boston, the entire second line saw over 16 minutes per game last year. Add in injuries to wingers David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand and Smith may even start on the first line seeing 18 mintues per game. By mid-season Smith will settle into a second line role centred by David Krejci where he can be deployed in some of the higher leverage offensive minutes. The final totals should be one of Smith's best seasons to date at a discounted cap price.

 

Sell: Bruins Goalies (Tuukka Rask / Jaroslav Halak)

Current Cap Hit: $7,000,000 / $2,250,000

There are a lot of questions surrounding whether Halak will take on a larger role, whether Rask may have to bow out again, and what that means for the goalies' level of play as a whole. The two combined to put up the lowest goals against of any team in the regular season, and the per game averages are where the value in owning either comes from, as the volume just isn't there due to the relatively even workload split. Adding to the fact this year that both are in their mid-30s, in addition to losing two key defencemen (Zdeno Chara and Torey Krug), the same value just won't be there next year. It would be best if you could sell either (or both) for an option with less question marks coming into the season. It's already hard enough to project goalies, don't make it even harder on yourself.

 

Arizona Coyotes

Buy: Darcy Kuemper

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Current Cap Hit: $4,500,000

Despite the team in front of him floundering, Darcy Kuemper's stats have been trending upwards since his arrival in Arizona. With his new cap hit, fantasy owners may be looking to sell high on him, however it is more likely that this is just the norm for Kuemper. With third stringer Adin Hill signing a one-way deal this offseason, it is still possible that either Kuemper or counterpart Antti Raanta get moved. The only realistic suitors for Kuemper at this point would be Edmonton or Carolina, both upgrades for his fantasy value. Meanwhile, should Raanta be the one moved, Kuemper would see his volume value increase to the point of elevating him into the top handful of goalies to own in fantasy leagues. Even if no trade materializes, Kuemper remains under appreciated in the desert.

 

Sell: Nick Schmaltz

Current Cap Hit: $5,850,000

To some fantasy GMs, Schmaltz is valued as a player for whom scoring 60-70 points is just a matter of when, not if. If you are the current Schmaltz owner, sniff that guy out and get the best return you can right now. Schmaltz is a 50-point player, whose ceiling is further limited due to the lack of surrounding talent in Arizona. His contract was one that he was supposed to be able to grow into with development and a higher cap – well, the development is slow and the cap is now flat. On top of lackluster scoring totals and an inflated cap hit, Schmaltz's peripherals are some of the worst around. In 70 games last season Schmaltz was only able to amass 12 hits, 35 blocks, a plus three rating, and couldn't even notch 100 shots. Stay far away.

 

Anaheim Ducks

Buy: Rickard Rakell

Current Cap Hit: $3,789,444

Rakell's shooting percentage has dropped every season since 2016-2017, and that will turn around at some point. Players who have an unlucky season often bounce back to at least even percentages the next year, but after two straight very unlucky seasons, Rakell is overdue for a rebound. He has still managed over a 50-point pace the last two years, and a return to the 60-point plateau could be in the cards, aided by some improved depth in the Anaheim lineup this season. This should especially be true on the powerplay, where Rakell and the Ducks really struggled in 2019-2020. A higher conversion rate by the first unit would elevate Rakell from being worth his contract, to being a bargain.

 

Sell: Kevin Shattenkirk

Current Cap Hit: $3,900,000                                                                                                                                             

If you're expecting much out of Kevin Shattenkirk then you're either a Tampa Bay fan still riding the high of the Stanley Cup win, or you owned Shattenkirk way back in the mid-2010s when he was sheltered and soaking up 60% of the available powerplay time with St. Louis. Nowadays, Shattenkirk is a second-pair defenceman that is used in all situations, except on the top power-play unit. He is now 31 years old, coming off a season with a lot of inflated percentages from a stacked Tampa Bay team, and slotting in with an Anaheim team that will struggle to not be one of the bottom three teams in the West (entirely dependent on the health of John Gibson). Find someone else to fill out your depth with, there will be lots of options with better upsides and lower cost.

 

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All statistics are all pulled from FrozenTools, and all contract info from Capfriendly. Follow me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.

Stay safe!

 

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