Geek of the Week: A New Multi-Cat King
Logan Doyle
2021-01-10
This week you'll get suggestions on late-round options at left wing and center, as well as two late-round "swing for the fence" options.
Left wing is the shallowest of forward positions. Which means obtaining high end talent at this position is at a premium, and there is high-end talent available at left wing. The king of multi-cat leagues, Alex Ovechkin has reigned for over 15 years and it has taken that long for an heir to appear.
LEFT WINGS
Brady Tkachuk – Ottawa Senators
Yahoo ranking – 36 (16th ranked LW)
Yahoo draft – average pick – 48 (round 4.7)
FHG rank – 2
A little twist as he clearly isn't a late-round option, but rather a first-round option available in the fourth.
In multi-cat pools the only other player to provide 300 shots and 300 hits with 50-plus points in the past decade is Alex Ovechkin. Normally, to find a player with 300 hits you have to punt every other category and roster someone like Ryan Reaves or William Carrier. But alas, Tkachuk has arrived.
Add in his PIM-per-game average and you have an emerging multi-cat mega-star.
Moving forward, 50 points should be Tkachuk's absolute floor. Those totals are going to increase. He entered his draft year being touted as more offensively skilled than his 70-point bearing brother, Matthew Tkachuk.
As offensive players settle into the league, their hit totals have a tendency to decline. Even if his do decline, you're looking at well over 200 a year. This is one player to look at early in a draft and seriously consider taking near the end of the second round or early third round. Don't wait on this one. The sky is the limit.
Jason Zucker – Pittsburgh Penguins
Yahoo ranking – 190 (61st LW)
Yahoo draft – average pick – 168.6 (round 14.5)
FHG ranking – 150 (48th ranked LW)
To start training camp, Zucker has been on a line with Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust. He never had the opportunity to play with a center of this caliber in Minnesota. Last year in 15 games, a very small sample, he teased fantasy owners with, 6-6-12 points in 15 games, along with 36 shots and 18 hits. This put him back to his career best pace of 64 points (2017-18).
This is a really intriguing player. Anyone lining up in Pittsburgh's top six deserves fantasy attention. If Zucker and Malkin can build on their chemistry from last year, Zucker could put up 40 points with 60+ hits and 130+ shots.
The one thing to monitor closely with Zucker is his power-play deployment. Without exposure to that first unit, expectations should be conservative.
Lawson Crouse – Arizona Coyotes
Yahoo Ranking – 178 (57th ranked LW)
Yahoo draft – average pick – not ranked
FHG ranking – 136 (41st ranked LW)
Hits, hits, and more hits is what you get here. At this point in his career, Crouse is more of a situational draft option. If you find you've drafted a few players that don't help you in this category (Kyle Connor, Johnny Gaudreau, Mikko Rantanen, as examples), then Crouse could be exactly what the doctor ordered. In 56 games he will give 200 hits a run for its money.
At 6-4, 220 lbs, he is still 170 games away from his breakout threshold and is often going undrafted. He could be a sneaky hit machine that could surprise with something like 12 goals, 15 assists over 56 games. The area of concern is his shot totals. They have not exceeded two per game to this point of his career. The last two years he has been consistent at 1.62 per game. He really needs to shoot more.
If you find yourself bleeding hits, you could do far worse than adding Crouse to stop the leak.
Tyler Bertuzzi – Detroit Red Wings
Yahoo Ranking – 188 (60th ranked LW)
Yahoo draft – average pick – 167.1 (round 14.6)
FHG Ranking – 130 (53rd ranked LW)
The Red Wings were historically bad last season, yet Bertuzzi never skipped a beat. In fact, over the past two seasons Bertuzzi has presented almost identical statistical seasons 47 vs. 48 points, 76 vs. 71 hits, 131 vs. 129 shots, 21 goals in each, 73 vs 71 games played and the real eye popping stat, 16% and 16.3% shooting percentage. He is sitting smack dab on top of his breakout threshold with 199 games played.
He also saw a jump in ice time by almost three minutes (19:19) and a bump in power play time of 1:26 (3:03) per game. There aren't a lot of offensive options in Detroit to threaten that deployment either.
If you're looking for a late round option that can give you some real boom potential you just might be pleasantly surprised. Bertuzzi is primed for a breakout season. If you do not grab him late, this very likely will be an "I told you so" moment come May.
CENTERS
Based on the average pick in Yahoo drafts, six of the first twelve picks have been centers with another four going in the second round. With a position so filled with elite options, how do you find value?
You look for centers that had a down year or offer to fill your peripheral categories while still producing solid offensive numbers.
Vincent Trocheck – Carolina Hurricanes
Yahoo Ranking – 209 (62th ranked C)
Yahoo draft – average pick – 172.8 (round 14.8)
FHG Ranking – 187 (37rd C)
How much did returning early from that gruesome injury from 2018-19 hurt Trocheck in 2019-20? Based the season he had, a lot. He's better than last year but likely will not repeat his career year of 74 points.
The thing that keeps Trocheck on radars is category coverage. He's had two seasons of three shots per game and will also rack up 1.5-2 hits per game. He also taps in over 0.5 PIM per game as well. If you're a league that counts face-offs, he's solid there too with a career 51.2%.
There is no expectation he will magically return to that 74-point player, but he's also more than a 50-point player (82-game pace). If you're drafting Trocheck, you're taking a safe offensive floor but primarily looking to bolster your peripheral categories with fingers crossed he can move back toward that offensively dominant player.
Ryan Getzlaf – Anaheim Ducks
Yahoo Ranking – 254 (70th ranked C)
Yahoo draft – average pick – not drafted
FHG Ranking – 265 (58)
If you're looking at Getzlaf, you're not looking at upside. You're looking for a safe floor and peripheral stats. As his offense has dipped over the past two years, his hits have increased to almost two per game. He also offers close to a PIM per game. In face-off leagues, he gives you 500+ FOW and a solid 51.4%.
At 35 he is in the twilight of his career, but don't count him out. He's one of the fiercest competitors in the game. There's at least one 60+ point season left in him. He needs the youth movement to take the next step to get him back there. Father time is ticking, but Getzlaf is finding ways to keep himself fantasy relevant.
Phillip Danault – Montreal Canadiens
Yahoo Ranking – 167 (47th ranked C)
Yahoo draft – average pick – not drafted
FHG Ranking – 193 (39th ranked C)
It took him some time to find his footing in the NHL, but Danault has found a home in Montreal. He is set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season, so he will be highly motivated to perform well and set himself up for a payday.
His shot totals aren't Trocheck's level, but he'll provide similar points and hits. It would be really nice to see him shoot more. In Montreal's 10 playoff games he did just that. He improved from 1.9 shots per game to 2.4. If he can capitalize on that trend then Danault could find himself pushing a 60-point pace.
In pools that count face offs he's a hidden gem with 1300 wins over the past two seasons and rolls along with a consistent 54% face-off winning percentage. If you decide to pass him in your draft, keep a close eye on him. He is a player that could put in a career year and turn himself into a valuable waiver add early in the season.
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With the season four days away, we'll end this week with a couple players that could really destroy their draft position.
Dylan Strome – Chicago Blackhawks
Yahoo Ranking – 228
Yahoo Average Draft position – 168.9 (round 14.6)
FHG Ranking – 297
In his 116 games as a Blackhawk, Strome has 89 points which translates to a 63-point pace. With no Kirby Dach for possibly the entire regular season and no timetable for Jonathan Toews return to the line-up, Strome is the default number one center in Chicago.
He will be given every opportunity to shine. He should see first line minutes and top power-play with Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat.
There are two big knocks on Dylan Strome. The first is his defensive lapses. If he can demonstrate significant growth in his two-way game and gain his coaches trust in all situations, he'll see a more permanent bump in his icetime.
The second is his shot totals. He needs to shoot more, period. Fantasy owners would rejoice if he were to eclipse two shots per game for the season. With all the icetime he can handle, Strome could blow away expectations. FHG has projected him to put up 41 points. There's an outside chance he could push a point-a-game average given the opportunity that has landed at his feet.
Kirill Kaprizov – Minnesota Wild
Yahoo Ranking – 158
Yahoo average draft position – 151.4 (round 13.4)
FHG Ranking – 202
If you're looking for a late round home run, this is it.
Kaprizov has finally arrived. He comes with all the hype of Artemi Panarin and early reviews from training camp are glowing. He's been an elite offensive talent in the KHL for the past four seasons and expectations are high.
His game should translate well to the NHL. He has a nose for the net and doesn't shy away from the dirty areas. Highlight packages are a pretty even split between wrist shots inside the hash marks and grabbing rebounds in tight. Hopefully scouting reports are sending warnings to goalies about his backhand it is downright nasty. His shooting percentage in the KHL was over 18% in three of the last four years. If his shot totals translate, 2.5 – 3 per game he could be a 35-45 goal scorer in the NHL.
Take note. As a late round option, you could be scooping 25+ goals and a point per game player. In the 13th round, this would be a huge steal. It's more likely he lands closer to 45 points than 55, but he comes with that upside.
Starting next week, we will change things up a bit and begin digging a bit deeper into individual players.