Campbell: Top 20 Rookies – Part Two
Grant Campbell
2021-01-11
With only a few days left until the start of the 56-game 2021 NHL season, some rosters have been trimmed down in preparation whereas additionally, some Covid positive tests and/or exposures are affecting some NHL dressing rooms. There were 66 players put on waivers Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with more expected on Monday and Tuesday. With the taxi squads this season it is a little more difficult to get a handle on what players will be included on the rosters as most teams might not carry 23 man rosters but will elect to go with 20 to save salary cap space. Once a player is sent to the AHL or another league it will be a likely indication that they won't see the NHL in 2020-21. Keep in mind that players will need to clear waivers (if required) to be sent back to the taxi squad.
On that note, here is part two of my top 20, counting down the top ten:
#10 – Ilya Sorokin – (G) – NY Islanders
Sorokin dominated the KHL for the past five seasons with CSKA Moscow and is still only 25-years old. In those five seasons, he had 121 wins and only 38 losses along with 43 shutouts, and a paltry GAA of just over 1.50 with a save percentage around 93.5 during the regular season. During the KHL playoffs, he played 69 games with 50 wins, 16 shutouts with a similar GAA and shooting percentage as the regular season. He won the KHL Gagarin Cup in 2018-19. At 6'2" and 176 lbs he is built similar to Ryan Miller of Anaheim and should put some pressure on Semyon Varlamov who played well last season and in the playoffs. Sorokin should get around 30-40 percent of the starts to begin which might translate to 16 to 25 starts and nine to 17 wins. Sorokin could become a 1B goalie by the halfway point of this season and move to 1A by the end of the season or next year.
#9 – Barrett Hayton – (F) – Arizona
Hayton won gold with Canada at the WJC last year where he managed 12 points in seven games but hurt his shoulder in the process. As a result of that injury along with being a healthy scratch a few times it only allowed him 20 games last year with Arizona in the NHL. The former 5th overall pick in 2018 played eight games this year in the Finnish Liiga with Ilves and managed four points in eight games so he could be ready this year for a full season at the age of 20. Arizona doesn't have much depth on the LW and Hayton could see himself move up the lineup if he plays well and might see 25-30 points this year.
#8 – Josh Norris (F) – Ottawa
Norris, who was drafted 19th overall in 2017 by San Jose (brought to Ottawa in the Erik Karlsson trade) had an excellent rookie year in the AHL last season with 31 goals and 61 points in 56 games. He appears to be ready for the NHL but will need an opportunity in the top six to be productive. It doesn't make sense if this team wants to spark its offence to have Derek Stepan or Chris Tierney centering the top line, so expect Norris to get a shot sooner than later. Because of the uncertainty of his role, I could see him getting anywhere from 20-35 points this year, but his ceiling is a little higher than those already ranked.
#7 – Owen Tippett – (F) – Florida
With the additions of Anthony Duclair and Patric Hornqvist, the opportunity for Tippett in the top six dried up a little, but he should still see a full season in the NHL with Florida after posting 40 points in 46 AHL games last year. He appears pencilled in to start with the 3rd or 4th line on the right side for Florida, but any injury or sub-par play from Duclair or Hornqvist will open the door for Tippett to play with the likes of Jonathan Huberdeau or Alexander Barkov regularly. I believe he can get 25-35 points this season over 56 games.
#6 – Gabriel Vilardi – (F) – Los Angeles
Vilardi should be the 2nd or 3rd line center for the Kings this season, but we need to remind ourselves that he has only played 46 games (at any level) over the past two seasons. It appears that his back issues are a thing of the past, but one never knows. His seven points in 10 NHL games last season was impressive but might have been a little inflated for the small sample size. If Vilardi can stay healthy over 56 games he should be able to produce 26-36 points.
#5 – Trevor Zegras – (F) – Anaheim
Zegras will need to earn his minutes in Anaheim to get a center ice role, but he could be handed top-six minutes on the wing this season. That could either be on the 1st line with Ryan Getzlaf or the 2nd line with Adam Henrique, but the Ducks are devoid of the talent that Zegras has so he should see time there eventually this season. His performance at the WJC shouldn't make people assume he will instantly be a point per game player as a rookie. He played very well last season with Boston University and had 11 goals and 36 points in 33 games but he wasn't dominant. Temper your expectations a little but if the opportunities are there, he could be good for 26-36 points this year.
#4 – Tim Stuetzle – (F) – Ottawa
The 3rd overall pick in 2020 had an impressive WJC and is now in Ottawa to secure a role on the Senators for 2020-21. He instantly becomes the most skilled forward on the team, but that won't necessarily translate to guaranteed production at the NHL level. It appears that he will slot in on the 2nd line with Evgeni Dadonov on the other wing and Derek Stepan at center. Because he is still only 18-years old I will put his production between 24-38 points next year, but it will be his attractive ceiling that sells him.
#3 – Alexis Lafreniere – (F) – NY Rangers
I do believe Lafreniere is a small step above where Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko were leading into their rookie seasons, but similar issues face Lafreniere for him to outproduce either of those players from their rookie campaigns. Where will he slot in to get the opportunity to play more than 12 minutes a night? Currently it looks like he will be on the 3rd line behind Chris Kreider and Artemi Panarin and could get some second unit power playtime. That makes me hesitant to think that Lafreniere will be the top-scoring rookie this year and to get between 25-40 points he will need some injuries or lacklustre play from those ahead of him right now.
#2 – Igor Shesterkin – (G) – NY Rangers
Shesterkin is the real deal and if healthy will dress for 35-40 games this season. The 25-year old won 10 of his 12 starts last season with a 93.1 save percentage but somehow didn't start in the playoffs in game one. The team is his now and he will get a pretty long leash this year to get this team to the playoffs again. His save percentage will no doubt come down a little, but if he plays even close to his level of last season he should see 20-28 wins this year.
#1 – Kirill Kaprizov – (F) – Minnesota
Unless Kaprizov likes hot dogs as much as Vladimir Krutov, I don't think people need to fear that he will fall on his face this season with Minnesota. Undoubtedly there will be some adaptation to the league, the culture and the different ice sizes, but Kaprizov is too skilled a player to fail miserably. Add skill and opportunity at the NHL level and it should equal success given enough time and Kaprizov will get 16-18 minutes per game with first unit power playtime. I think Kaprizov is good for 35-50 points and that will be enough to put him at the top of my list.
I'm already regretting not including Nils Hoglander in my top 20, as from all reports he is having a strong camp with Vancouver and should be a lock to make the team and possibly see some top-six minutes with Bo Horvat.
News out of Minnesota has Marco Rossi out indefinitely with an upper-body injury. Believe it or not, I didn't have Marco Rossi in my top 20 before he was injured as I thought he might not get a top-six opportunity until next season. His injury pushes him out of most people's top 20 lists now I'm sure.
Let's hope by next week, we have some real regular-season NHL action to write about!
Thanks for reading, and let me know if you want me to focus on any players or topics by messaging me below or following me on Twitter @gampbler15.