When you're looking for a breakout player, there are a couple things you should be looking for. The first is ice time, specifically top six minutes and power-play exposure. The second is year over year improvement in production. When you're trying to figure out when that breakout will take place, for the most part, you're looking for players entering their fourth year in the NHL and/or 200 games played.

Enter, under the radar Alex Iafallo, (6-0, 188-lbs) who ticks all the boxes. He exploded in his senior year with the University of Minnesota-Duluth with 51 points in 42 games. This turned NHL heads and led to the LA Kings signing him as an undrafted free agent when he graduated.

He impressed coaches right away and made the Kings out of his first training camp. As a rookie in 2017-18, the Kings gave him a real opportunity to prove himself with 15:06 ice time and :33 on the power play. In his first pro-season he put up respectable numbers with 25 points, 129 shots, 53 hits, points per 60 (P/60), 1.324, goals per 60 (G/60) .477 in 75 games. His linemates out of the gate were Anze Kopitar and Tyler Toffoli.

There was no sophomore slump for Iafallo in 2018-19. Glued to Kopitar, his numbers across the board improved to 33 points, 148 shots, 1.435 P/60, .652 G/60. His shooting percentage improved from 7.0 to 10.1% shooting percentage (SH%) and saw an increase in ice time to 16:50 per game and 1:33 PPTOI in 82 games.

Last year, 2019-20, Iafallo again improved across the board with 43 points, 142 shots, 18:56 ice time, 2:29 power play time, 12.0 SH% in 70 games, 12 fewer than 2018-19. Both his P/60 and G/60 improved again to 1.947 & .770 in 82 games.  

Entering this season, he sits at 228 games played. Right on queue, Iafallo put up 21 points in his final 28 games of 2019-20 before the league shutdown, which equates to a 62-point pace over 82 games played. Overall, he was on pace for just over 50 points for the season.

Iafallo also provides decent hit totals, averaging 74 per 82 games over his career. The only stat he doesn't provide owners coverage in is PIMs. With more and more leagues turning away from using this stat it matters a bit less. If you use PIMs in your league, at least you have been warned.

He was on pace for just over 2 SOG per game before the season was interrupted. With increased ice time and more power play exposure, Iafallo's shot totals should again increase alongside his offensive production. A conservative estimate would place his increase in SOG from 2.02 to 2.2 (similar to his year-over-year increases). If Iafallo truly does break out then pushing 2.5 SOG/game would be the aggressive estimate. This would mean an increase in goals of two on the conservative side up to five or six on the aggressive in this shortened season.

His power-play production has also increased every year from two to six to nine power play points. It is modest but remember, the first two years he was given very limited power-play exposure. Only last season was he given regular time on the first power-play unit.  This year, he will see a lot of time on the man advantage with stalwarts Kopitar and Drew Doughty.

So where does Iafallo go from here? In the first game of 2020-21, he saw over 20 minutes of ice time and picked up an assist on three minutes of power play. The quick answer is clearly up. The more important follow up question to that answer is, how far up?

Realistically, the LA Kings are still an offensively-challenged team. They are expected to finish in the bottom third of the league in scoring and the standings. Iafallo is also 27 years old. His ceiling is probably right around that 65-point marker. There is nothing elite here, but he is a really great depth option. And depth can win you a championship.

If you're looking for a comparable, Zach Hyman is a good one. Hyman is owned in 33% of Yahoo pools and 53% of Fantrax pools. Iafallo's hits are slightly below Hyman's 1.36 per game versus 0.9 per game, but you should receive similar offensive production, if not better. If Hyman continues to spend the majority of his 5×5 ice time on the third line with Alex Kerfoot and Ilya Mikheyev, Hyman's offensive totals will drop. He teased with a 60-point pace last season. He won't come close to that without regular time with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner.  Sheldon Keefe has been adamant in training camp he wants a strong checking line involving Hyman. On the other hand, Iafallo will be glued to Kopitar and PP1 in LA.  

Over 56 games, Iafallo should push 40 points (59-point pace per 82 games). He is owned in only 33% of Fantrax leagues and a meager 4% of Yahoo pools. He is a top line, first power-play forward that is flying way under the radar. Most public fantasy leagues do not dip very deep into player pools, which explains the lack of Iafallo ownership, to an extent. In deeper multi-cat leagues, he's floating around as a free agent in a large chunk of them. You would be wise to tag him to your watch list. Fantasy owners are going to take notice in the next couple of weeks.

Alex Iafallo is grossly under-owned across fantasy hockey pools. He is a fantastic depth piece to most rosters. If the bottom third of your roster is in need of an offensive boost while not tanking your hit totals you would be wise to look his way. It won't be long before Hyman owners consider abandoning ship and start looking for a replacement trending in the other direction.

All stats pulled from QuantHockey, Frozen Tools and Fantrax.