Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of Alex MacLean’s weekly Capped column. As a reminder, to access the actual forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – What is the likelihood of Marco Rossi becoming the #1 center in Minnesota? Don't teams only do this with "can't miss" rookies like Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon?

Being hurt to start the season is a roadblock for sure, but it still could happen. Although Rossi will be a rookie the same year he was drafted, this will be his age 19 season, as he was born in September. So while it is true he'll never have seen a minute of NHL action once he takes the ice, plenty of other players have walked in those same shoes.

In fact, since 2000-01 there were 11 "centers" (according to Hockey Reference) who averaged 16:00 or more of ice time per game as a 19-year-old first-year player and who, like Rossi, had been drafted in the first round, versus a total only five for 18-year-olds. Beyond that, eight of the 11 who were age 19-year-old rookies averaged at least two points per every three games, or 72.7%, versus four of the five for 18-year-olds, or 80%. Who were the 19-year-olds? Jack Eichel, Anze Kopitar, John Tavares, Auston Matthews, Matt Duchene, Peter Mueller, Eric Staal, Nico Hischier, Dylan Larkin, Mitch Marner, and Jonathan Toews. With the exception of Mueller and, as yet, Hischier, all have tasted significant success, in many cases quite early in their careers if not their very first season.

What does this mean for Rossi? Maybe nothing, as past precedent isn't necessarily predictive of future performance; but the Wild think highly of Rossi and have the likes of Nick Bonino, Nick Bjugstad and Marcus Johansson as another option for centering the top line while he's out. As such, Rossi should get every shot at taking the reins upon his return.

Topic #2 – Who is set up to have a better season: Marc-Andre Fleury or Antii Raanta?

Both should be among the better 1B/back-up goalies in the league, notwithstanding that Darcy Kuemper had the best quality start percentage in the NHL last year and Robin Lehner was inked to a major deal in the offseason. But is there a way to predict who'll be better?

The advantage doesn't lie in back-to-back games, as Vegas has eight B2Bs versus nine for Arizona. And in terms of strength of opponents, based on their schedules the teams Vegas plays rank 7th worst in GA and 18th worst in GF, versus 12th in GA and GF for Arizona. So yet again, fairly even. 

Fleury is 36-years-old, but his past two seasons he's been fairly healthy, whereas Raanta, while a full five years younger, has battled injuries for the past two campaigns after making a strong impression in his first season in Arizona. So perhaps a slight advantage to Fleury when it comes to the likelihood of staying healthy.

Given that both will be back-ups, let's see how their cumulative SV% was after certain days of rest over the past three seasons, i.e., the ones Fleury played in Vegas and Raanta in Arizona. Fleury's cumulative SV% over the past three years, with different days rest, was .942 (zero days rest), .911 (one or three), .914 (two), and .927 (four or more). For Raanta, his SV% breakdowns were .922 (zero), 0.937 (one), 0.934 (two), .915 (three), .906 (four or more). So Raanta is at his best the shorter the lull between starts, while Fleury fared better the longer between starts but isn't as great as Raanta with the 1-3 days rest a 1B would expect to get. Although both goalies will likely have some 5+ day lulls between starts, given how compressed the schedule is most of their starts will come with 1-3 days rest, which is not Fleury's sweet spot. Advantage Raanta.

Fleury's rate of really bad starts over the past three years is 12.8%, versus 10.4% for Raanta. For quality starts, Fleury's rate is 53% over the past three seasons, whereas Raanta's is 58%. Beyond Raanta's numbers being better in general, Fleury's RBS rate each of the past two seasons has risen while at the same time his rate of QS has fallen in each, so he's trending worse. Advantage again to Raanta.

If both were guaranteed to be healthy, I'd probably recommend Raanta; however, he's now a Band-Aid Boy, which can't be ignored. Then again, Fleury seems to be deteriorating with age, although perhaps by starting fewer games he might be able to right his ship? If one owns Kuemper I'd opt for Raanta, whereas if one owns Lehner I'd choose Fleury. For instances where that is not the case, I'd say that Raanta is the risk/reward pick whereas Fleury might be the choice if Raanta's injury issues are too concerning.

Topic #3 – In a 12 team keep 14 league where 4C, 8W, 6D and 2G start and the skater categories are G (1pt), A (1pt), SOG (0.1pt), HIT (0.1pt), BLK (0.1pt), PPPts (0.5pt), +/- (0.25pt), which two are better to keep: Filip Forsberg (fantasy points per game in the last three seasons = 1.33, 1.48 and 1.71) and Morgan Rielly (1.17, 1.56, 1.25) or Mikko Rantanen (1.58, 1.84, 1.56) and Colton Parayko (1.06, 1.04, 1.04)?

The forum thread went with the Rantanen side, but I'm not sure I see it that way. Last season the totals were 2.96 for Forsberg/Rielly versus 2.60 for Rantanen/Parayko. And that was when Rielly had agreed to cede PP1 to Tyson Barrie and Forsberg had a three season-low in scoring pace and 19 fewer SOG than 2018-19 despite playing in only one less game. On the other side, Parayko did his usual thing, which probably won't change given that Torey Krug will step into the PP1 role formerly occupied by Alex Pietrangelo and Parayko will continue to play tough minutes. As for Rantanen, his points per game was the lowest in three seasons despite the fact that he sported his highest ever shooting percentage and having barely lower IPP and SOG per game rates than his 2018-19 when his scoring pace was 96 points. And for 2018-19, his fantasy points were barely above what Forsberg did in 2019-20 in what was an off-year for Forsberg.

So even if Rantanen replicates his 2018-19 magic, that duo is pretty much maxed out at 2.8-2.9 fantasy points, which is below what Rielly and Forsberg did last season when both, especially Rielly, were not at their best. What this underscores is the best "player" in real-life hockey often isn't the best in fantasy, as it depends on the categories. Rantanen happens to be best in points only leagues, whereas Forsberg's well-rounded skills shine in leagues that count other stats. This is why it's always key to look at fantasy points in your particular league when evaluating players, lest you reflexively just grab the side with the best player.

Topic #4 – Which recently disappointing player has the best chance to rebound – Mikael Granlund or Jonathan Drouin?

It seems like a lot longer ago than 2016-17 when Granlund posted the first of two seasons that saw him score at a 70+ point pace and Drouin, in his age 21 campaign, scored at a 60 point pace. In the past two seasons, both have come back to earth, with Drouin scoring at a 54 then 46 point pace and Granlund at 56 and 39.

Drouin is three years younger; however, I think he's in entirely the wrong system for his style of play. For one, Montreal was one of two teams (Minnesota being the other) who had no forward skate for either 19:00 per game or an average 3:00 of PP time per contest. And when Drouin had his successful season in 2016-17, he had 26 PPPts and averaged 3:05 per game with the man advantage. In fact, of Drouin's 99 points in 2016-17 and 2017-18, 48, or nearly half, came on the PP. But his PP Time per game over the past three seasons has been 3:16, 2:51 then 2:24. And his ice time has dropped for three seasons in a row as well. Simply put, he's not the type of player who finds success in a Claude Julien system. Moreover, Drouin's 15 points in 19 games to start 2019-20 came when he played on a line with Max Domi, who's now gone. Once Drouin returned from injury he was put on a line with Nick Suzuki, who, despite being a rookie, quickly earned the trust of Julien. But Drouin had zero points in eight games with Suzuki as his most frequent linemate, making it all the less likely the two will be successfully paired together again in 2020-21. Until Drouin goes to another team or Julien is relieved of coaching duties, I can't see a path for him to likely score at a 55+ point pace even after his strong start to 2020-21.

Granlund didn't even tally a point per every other game despite playing for a UFA contract, which is concerning on the surface. And although his SOG rate has declined somewhat over the past two seasons, his ice time has fallen by only a minute and his PP Time by only seconds as compared to 2017-18 when he posted 71 points for the Preds. So why did his scoring crater? In a word, IPP. His IPP on the PP last season was a woeful 37.5% after being 73% to 87% over the previous three seasons. Moreover, his regular IPP also lagged well below his normal rate, as it was a mere 52.6% after ranging between 72 and 77% over the previous three seasons. On the flip side, however, his secondary assist rate was 53.8%, which is unsustainably high, and he shot 13.1%, which was 30% above his career rate. So Granlund was somewhat lucky when it came to shooting percentage and secondary assists, but quite unlucky in terms of IPP overall and on the PP. If weighting these factors, I'd argue the IPPs were more negatively impacting as compared to how much the other factors propped up his scoring. All in all, Granlund probably should've scored at a rate of 50-55+ points.

Also, despite his struggles, Granlund's ice time increased with each quarter of 2019-20, and his PP time increased in each of the last two quarters. This shows Granlund is more essential to his team than Drouin, and I think that's a big key here. Whereas Drouin is being deemphasized in Montreal, Granlund is still very much a factor in Nashville, as further evidenced by the team being willing to bring him back. I'm not especially wild about either of the two if I'm being candid; however, I like Granlund better than Drouin due to the situations they're in. This also underscores a key point in fantasy, which is in many cases the player who has more raw talent, which, of the two, I'm sure most would agree is Drouin, might not be the best player to own due to how the two players are likely to be deployed.

Topic #5 – Other than Brady Tkachuk, is there someone in the NHL now who has the potential to be a monster in HIT and/or BLK but also put up points, and who isn't on everyone's radar as yet?

Three names in the Forum thread also came to mind for me, namely Blake Coleman, Sammy Blais, and Max Comtois. Coleman likely did enough last season to make him no longer a hidden gem except in deeper leagues; however, the other two probably haven't made enough of an impression to where they'd be unobtainable. I also liked the inclusion of Lawson Crouse in the thread, as if Denis Gurianov was able to connect the dots, so too could Crouse, who it happens was drafted in the spot immediately before Gurianov in 2015.

The player I was most surprised not to see mentioned in the Forum thread was Josh Anderson, who should put up more points than Coleman, and contribute a lot of Hits as well. Anderson's new teammate Joel Armia, a former first-rounder, could continue to force his way into the top nine or even top six in Montreal. There's also Zach Aston-Reese, who has shown flashes of talent and whose physical game might be enough to earn him time alongside the team's stars to give them protection, especially with Patric Hornqvist no longer around, and at least until Sam Poulin is ready to assume that role. Also fitting the bill is Scott Laughton on Philly, a team where he can produce even if on the third line due to how balanced the team's top nine figures to be. All four of them are 26 or 27 years old, or older than all the other four with the exception of Coleman, who's 29. But at 26 or 27 they could still have productive years ahead of them.

For defensemen, Connor Murphy on Chicago has looked better with each passing season and in addition to chipping in some points, he averaged more than six hits and six blocks per 60 minutes of ice time last season, for nice stat stuffing. And although he's likely known due to the team he's on, in some leagues Erik Cernak of Tampa could still be had for less than true value, and he should get points – to go along with ample hits and blocks – simply by playing for a team with such a high powered offense.

Is there a Tkachuk among these players? Highly unlikely, as Tkachuk's across the board stat-stuffing is the type that hasn't been seen since a young Alex Ovechkin. But some could be of value in deeper leagues where hits and/or blocks are useful while chipping scoring that goes beyond some of the players who offer essentially nothing more than hits or blocks.

Topic #6 – Fast-forwarding to two years from now, which of these five goalies should be positioned to have the most wins going forward: MacKenzie Blackwood, Elvis Merzlikins, Jussi Saros, Matt Murray, or Alexander Georgiev?

Right off the bat I'd say the longest shot is Georgiev, who likely will be a back-up or 1B unless he somehow finds his way to Seattle, although who's to say they'll be a very good team, as in most cases expansion teams don't perform like Vegas has done and instead are below average to well below average for several seasons.

Even before the retirement of Corey Crawford, I'd have said that Blackwood was in a very good position, as Crawford would've been on the last year of his deal in two years. Now Blackwood becomes "the guy" right away, as anyone the Devils sign for this year or next should be an insurance policy at best. And the Devils should only get better as their young core of forwards, highlighted by Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, and Alexander Holtz, mature.

While I don't put a lot of trust in Ottawa to cobble together an elite team, I'll say their offseason moves have made the team a lot better. And their young core is solid. Murray, despite being a Band-Aid Boy, has an impressive win percentage and a low rate of Really Bad Starts. He could see his career rejuvenated in Ottawa as the team around him improves.

Merzlikins is a question mark, as both he and Joonas Korpisalo will be UFAs in 2022 unless one of them gets signed beforehand. And at 28 Elvis should be entering his prime. He's a wild card, but one that could pay huge dividends.

Saros has seen his GAA rise and SV% sink for three straight seasons. That having been said, he looked unstoppable over the last eight games of 2019-20. Maybe his worsening stats were due to not having enough starts? If he can play as he did over those eight games, he could be elite, but can that stretch outweigh three years of worsening trends? And lurking in the background is Yaroslav Askarov, whom the Preds just picked twelfth overall, which is very high for a goalie.

This is actually a lot closer than I thought it would be. Come 2022-23, Blackwood and Murray should both be entrenched as starters. Merzlikins will either be a UFA or will have locked up the role as starter for Columbus. Saros could be rolling or in danger of losing his gig to an upstart Askarov. I'm going to go with Blackwood first and Saros second, followed by Murray then Merzlikins, but with Merzlikins having the potential to be the best of the bunch if everything goes his way.

Topic #7 – In a points only league for just 2020-21, how would the following players be ranked: Jonathan Drouin, Jaden Schwartz, Anthony Beauvillier, and Ilya Mikheyev?

The last place is easy – Mikheyev. Yes, he scored at a 48 point pace as a rookie and was seeing regular shifts with John Tavares to close 2019-20; however, he's just as likely to be downgraded to the bottom six; and even as he was breaking out last season, there was no room for him on either PP unit. Someone has to be at the bottom, and it's him.

The easy top pick would've been Schwartz, had it not been for the Blues bringing in Mike Hoffman, who could push Schwartz to PP2. But here's the thing – that still might be enough to put Schwartz on top, as he's locked into the top six and even if relegated to PP2 it might be a pretty decent unit given the depth on St. Louis.

I discussed Drouin above, and to reiterate he's seen his ice time and PP time drop for two straight seasons and does not appear to be in the good graces of Claude Julien. Again, the biggest issue for Drouin is not getting ample PP time, as when he posted his two best seasons 48 of his 99 points came via the man advantage, so him not getting 3:00 per game on the PP hurts him a lot, even if he's still in the top six.

Beauvillier opened a lot of eyes first by a 14 point in a 10-game stretch toward the end of the 2019-20 season, then by scoring at a 52 point pace while firing more than three SOG per game during New York's playoff run. The issue is for the time being the Isles seem content having Beauvillier on the second line, a solid trio but one where they don't see enough starts in the offensive zone to open the scoring floodgates. He also doesn't have a spot on PP1 locked up, which would hurt his output.

This brings me back to Schwartz. He's not flashy, and, due to injuries, has likely not lived up to his full potential; however, he's scored at a 65+ point pace in three of the last six seasons and other than a weak 2018-19 has been rock solid. And even with the presence of Mike Hoffman Schwartz will see time with Brayden Schenn or Ryan O'Reilly, which should be good enough to have him score at a 60+ point pace, edging out Beauvillier and Drouin (50-55ish point pace) and Mikheyev (40-45ish point pace).

Topic #8 – Pick one in a points only cap keeper league: Teuvo Teravainen ($5.4M x 5 years left), Alex Debrincat ($6.4M x 3 years left), or Elias Lindholm ($4.85M x 4 years left)?

Teravainen has quietly scored at a 76 point pace in each of the two past seasons, and I'd say he still has room to see that total improve, as his regular and PP IPPs were both down last season as compared to 2018-19 and only a third of his assists were secondary assists. His SOG rate also was a career-best, yet his shooting percentage his worst for any full season despite taking nearly identical ratios of shots from 0-15, 16-30 and 31+ feet in both 2018-19 and 2019-20. Lastly, his TOI of 19:12 marked an increase of 1:17 from 2018-19, yet he still has realistic room for that, as well as his SOG rate, to increase. I'd label TT a good bet for 80+ points, with a shot at 90+ if all goes as well as it could.

In the dream season for Calgary of 2018-19, Lindholm had 79 points. Like other Flames, however, his numbers dipped quite a bit in 2019-20. In his case though, his shooting percentage actually was higher than 2018-19 and his ice times weren't too far off. Lindholm is locked into the top six and PP1; however, it's unlikely that will be enough to merit him over TT, even though his cap hit is less.

Debrincat had terrible luck last season, as his shooting percentage was less than half what it had been over his career to date. Had he shot his normal rate his goal total would've more than doubled, and, in turn, his scoring would've been right near his 75 from 2018-19. And although Debrincat is the youngest of the three and could have the highest upside, which does matter as this is a keeper league, the Hawks are in the midst of a rebuild. Realizing that even weak teams can have strong scorers and Debrincat's potential is enticing, his price tag is the highest of the three and that likely puts him just above Lindholm but a notch below TT.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of the mailbag has room for more questions, so if you want my opinion on specific players or your teams, go ahead and ask away. To get your question(s) to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.