Capped: Surprising names in our top-50 rankings
Alexander MacLean
2021-01-28
The Top 200 Cap League Skater rankings are a pet project of mine that I started in 2019, and though the rankings are constantly evolving, some of the results continue to surprise me. The latest iteration (linked at the beginning) was published on Monday. This week I'm going to dive into a few unexpected players that cracked the top-50.
For those unfamiliar with the rankings or the system I use, please check out the linked ranking set so that we're all on the same page from here on.
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Quick note before we continue, I have HUGELY been enjoying watching the NWHL with their season that got underway last Saturday. Their games are worth tuning into when you can, and they're all available for free on their Twitch channel.
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John Marino (D) – Pittsburgh Penguins
Current Cap Hit: $925,000 (Signed an extension at a $4.4M per year until 2027)
Marino has started off the season pointless in seven games, which is a little surprising. Some may have expected a bit of a sophomore slump from Marino, but last August I debunked why that was unlikely in Marino's case. From that article, I concluded that Marino should pace for around 30 points in a full season. That would mean 20 points in a 56-game season. With fewer than 50 games to go, I'm still not ready to bump his projection down yet. After showing well last year with his 26 points, Marino established somewhat of a fantasy floor, especially if you count any peripheral categories. If Kris Letang misses some time (not a far-fetched idea), then Marino steps onto the top power-play unit and he's liable to blow the 20-point pace out of the water this year.
Marino has been a steady name inside the top-50 on account of a few factors. First, the floor plus the upside that we discussed above are the biggest thing when coupled with his bargain entry-level cap hit and a fair-priced extension. The extension kicking in next season will inevitably knock him down the list more than a few places. The 23-year-old Marino is also in a prime age range, on top of playing at a premium fantasy position (value defencemen are always tougher to find than value forwards).
On a related note:
Who would have thought that Letang would be the last Penguins’ defenceman standing. https://t.co/1GBHst8Wa2
— Alex MacLean (@alexdmaclean) January 27, 2021
Ilya Mikheyev (RW) – Toronto Maple Leafs
Current Cap Hit: $1,645,000
Mikheyev is also a sophomore, but that's about where the similarities end with him and Marino. Mikheyev is currently the third member of the Leafs' second line alongside John Tavares and William Nylander. Unfortunately for his owners, the recent exposure to high-end players (due to a few injuries up the lineup) haven't yet been paying dividends. His on-ice shooting percentage is incredibly low (2.4 percent). His ice time has increased over the last few games as well, and it's tough to blame him for the slow start as his last regular season game was back in 2019.
Mikheyev has inched his way into the top-50 due to his upside on top of a floor that he established in last year's injury-shortened campaign. The fact that he helped Toronto out with their cap situation and signed a bridge deal at about two-thirds of what he was worth based on market value doesn't hurt his ranking either. On the flip side, if he makes a habit of missing time then his upside and floor will have to be knocked down, hurting his overall value.
Adam Boqvist (D) – Chicago Blackhawks
Current Cap Hit: $894,167
Another sophomore still being undervalued is Adam Boqvist. The 20-year-old is rostered in only 9 percent of Yahoo leagues and 53 percent of Fantrax leagues (typically deeper and more keeper focused) despite seeing 70 percent of the available powerplay time. The Blackhawks' powerplay was also sitting pretty at second in the league in conversion rate before he was held out of the lineup. With two powerplay assists for Boqvist and three points in total, the former first round pick is showing early that he can run with the big guns on a shallower Chicago team. His value is currently muted in part due to his appearance on the NHL Covid19 list, but that just means it's your best chance to see if you can get in on an underappreciated asset.
Boqvist has the upside to post an even better career high in points than the forward Mikheyev mentioned above. That upside in addition to a rookie contract that he is providing early returns on will keep him high on the list until it expires in the summer of 2022. His current points projection isn't quite as high as Marino's or Mikheyev's but that may have to be increased on my end if he keeps up with the early appearances. In the meantime, Boqvist still has at least another 11 days off with the Covid-19 isolation process, so use this time to do some due diligence on someone you shouldn't be sleeping on.
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All statistics are all pulled from FrozenTools, and all contract info from Capfriendly. Follow me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.
Stay safe!
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