Welcome back to another week of Frozen Tool Forensics. This week we are looking at player opportunity on the power play. With the new season, we have new lineups, new deployments, and new potential breakout players. Today we are going to focus on players who have had things change – whether for the good or the bad.

For process here we are going to start with the Frozen Tools Reports page and take the Time on Ice report for the 2021 season. At this point, we want to take the whole season as there haven't been enough games to be able to compare where we currently are to another point. To make that comparison though we are going to pull the same report from the end of last season – so the two and a half-ish months prior to the stoppage. The playoffs/play-ins don't offer a full picture, as not every team was involved, so I wanted to make sure to grab regular season data.

For the purposes of this article, we are comparing the percent of power-play time from the end of the 2019-20 season to what has happened so far in 2021. There are pros and cons for using percentage. At the end of the day, it is absolute time that matters (well it is points that matter, but time exposed to the power-play will lead to points) so getting 70 percent of the time in a game but only getting 45 seconds isn't great. Looking at percentage over time, though, gives us an idea about who is getting the most of a team's opportunity so we can hope in the next game where there is more power-play time to be had the player will be getting that larger chunk of it. Additionally, usually the best players and the top power play get more time, so a player who is getting 70 percent of the power-play time is likely not only going to get the most opportunity in the future, they are getting it with the team's best players.

And now on to the data.

First up we are going to take a look at players who have lost some exposure to the power-play.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	2021 %PP	2020 %PP	Difference
JOEL ARMIA	R	MTL	5	0	44.70	-44.70
NEAL PIONK	D	WPG	7	37.1	75.90	-38.80
PHILLIP DANAULT	C	MTL	6	5.3	44.00	-38.70
NOAH HANIFIN	D	CGY	5	2.2	39.20	-37.00
TYLER ENNIS	C	EDM	4	5.5	41.80	-36.30
KYLE TURRIS	C	EDM	8	13	48.40	-35.40
HAMPUS LINDHOLM	D	ANA	7	14.6	49.40	-34.80
MIKE HOFFMAN	C	STL	6	40.7	74.60	-33.90
ALEX GOLIGOSKI	D	ARI	7	5.6	39.40	-33.80
DEAN KUKAN	D	CBJ	7	0	33.40	-33.40

One thing that stands out on this list is the number of players that the bottom has really fallen out for. Alex Goligoski, Tyler Ennis, Noah Hanifin, and Phillip Danault are all down below ten percent while Joel Armia and Dean Kukan are at zero. Most of these players have started the year by losing out on the little second power-play time they were getting. Danault was only getting about a minute and a half anyway in 2019-20. For a chunk of these players, the offseason brought in new talent that is pushing them down the depth chart (Armia, Danault, Ennis). Guys like Goligoski and Hanafin are suffering because of the emergence of younger players.

I did want to take a moment and address a couple of top tier power-play roles that have slipped away thus far in 2021.

Neal Pionk

Pionk's value surged in 2021 when Josh Morrissey couldn't hack it on the top unit and Pionk was able to grab the spot and run with it. He put up a 52-point pace with 25 points on the power-play. Combine that with his solid hit and block numbers and he was a fantasy stud in multi-cat pools. Managers were clearly hoping for more of the same and drafted him much higher in 2021, but unfortunately, Morrissey appears to be back and Pionk has lost almost 40 percent of his share on the power-play. That does not bode well for future power-play production.

The good news so far is that Pionk's actual time on the power-play hasn't been dramatically impacted. He averaged 2:56 in 2019-20 and is down to 2:44 in 2021. It appears there have been some extra power-plays to go around. On the 26th he saw less than half of the total time, but still saw over four minutes total. The downside is that he does not have exposure to the top unit, the second is decidedly less formidable, and the total time on the power-play will likely drop as either power-play totals settle or that top unit takes more of the time. He has one power-play point to date (a pace of eight for the season) which is a far cry from his 25 in 71 games from 2021. If power-play production is important in your league, it might be time to part ways, while his point totals still look excellent.

Mike Hoffman

Hoffman's move in the offseason has clearly not gone well to date. He has two points in his six games, and given that he is featured here we can imagine his power-play deployment is not good either. He has lost about 34 percent of his power-play share from 2019-20. While in Florida, Hoffman averaged about three and a half minutes of power-play time and put up a 26 and 35 power-play point pace in his last two seasons.

He has made a name for himself as a bit of a power-play aficionado and it was generally accepted that he would slot in on the top power-play in St. Louis. In his January 26 game, he got 13 percent of the power-play time and a total of about 45 seconds on the power play. With Vladimir Tarasenko out, it seems almost criminal that Hoffman still doesn't have that top role, and perhaps Jaden Schwartz's spot might be available at some point, but maybe they are just trying to spread the offense a bit. Given the power-play is currently clicking at an abysmal 8.7 percent success rate, now might be a good time to switch things up.

But enough of the downers – who can we get excited about? I included the top 15 because, well, they are more exciting.

Name	Pos	Team	GP	2021 %PP	2020 %PP	Difference
JON MERRILL	D	DET	4	45.7	1.30	44.40
MATT GRZELCYK	D	BOS	4	71.2	27.60	43.60
JOSH MORRISSEY	D	WPG	7	63.8	23.70	40.10
DAVID KREJCI	C	BOS	6	73	36.60	36.40
TYLER PITLICK	C	ARI	7	37.2	1.10	36.10
ALEXANDRE TEXIER	C	CBJ	7	44.4	8.50	35.90
MORGAN RIELLY	D	TOR	8	65	30.10	34.90
BARRETT HAYTON	C	ARI	6	36.5	1.70	34.80
DYLAN STROME	C	CHI	7	80.3	46.00	34.30
NOAH DOBSON	D	NYI	6	55.7	23.30	32.40
YANNI GOURDE	C	T.B	4	38.1	8.20	29.90
ONDREJ PALAT	L	T.B	4	54.7	25.00	29.70
ADAM BOQVIST	D	CHI	6	70	40.50	29.50
EVAN RODRIGUES	C	PIT	6	34.3	6.60	27.70
ADAM FOX	D	NYR	6	60.9	33.50	27.40

One immediate observation here – a lot of defensemen are seeing increased exposure thus far. Seven of our 15 players are D.

There are a number of players I wanted to highlight so we will do a brief lightning round here.

Matt Grzelcyk

Grzelcyk is averaging over three and a half minutes a night and over 70 percent of the team's power-play share. Unfortunately, he missed the last two games due to injury, and Charlie McAvoy put up four points in his absence. With only two points and one on the power-play thus far and having squandered similar opportunities in the past, this is concerning for Grzelcyk owners. As of this writing (prior to Thursday's games), he is a significant question mark. If you own him, his deployment needs careful monitoring as he won't be worth much once he is off that power-play (and hasn't been worth much even with it).

Tyler Pitlick/Barrett Hayton

Both are seeing power-play time for the first time in their careers, occasionally getting up over a 40 percent share. They have yet to cash in, but as of January 26 were on the top unit with Phil Kessel and Clayton Keller.

Alexandre Texier

The kid is on fire with six points in his last six games (as of Thursday morning). He is seeing top power-play deployment for the first time in his career, though doesn't have a power-play point yet. Patrik Laine coming to town could disrupt the equilibrium for Texier, but he is worth a shot at least in the short term given his deployment and even strength success.

Noah Dobson

For the last three games, Dobson has been seeing over 60 percent of the Islanders' power-play time. He has been sharing the top unit with Ryan Pulock on D, and Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle, and Mathew Barzal. The unit hasn't been fantastic so far, but with most of the players seeming to be snake-bitten more points should be coming. Dobson seems like a great stream while getting this opportunity.

That is all for this week. Thanks for reading.

Stay safe out there.

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