Looking Ahead: Keep Karlsson Short-Term Expectations Low
Adam Daly-Frey
2021-01-29
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.
Note: With COVID news coming out of the blue, this article could be stale by Friday evening. It's important as always to pay attention to twitter and the site (especially the Ramblings) to keep abreast of all fantasy-relevant changes. The schedule portion of this article will continue as always, but be prepared to react quickly if games get postponed. Vegas has just had a postponement against the Blues on January 28. Although they won't be touched on this week and I left their upcoming games in the schedule analysis portion, be wary of using any Golden Knights players.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Carter Verhaeghe, W, Florida Panthers (Available in 92 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Getting top-line time in Florida alongside Aleksander Barkov has paid dividends for many players already – Jonathan Huberdeau has averaged 1.12pts/game over the past two seasons playing primarily with Barkov – and that's where Carter Verhaeghe finds himself with Florida.
Verhaeghe was previously an interesting name as a prospect given his AHL scoring touch, as he had put up 82 points in 76 games in 2018-19, but being a prospect in a deep Tampa Bay Lightning pool makes it tough to get ice time and put up points (see: Jonathan Marchessault.) With Verhaeghe finally getting a shot elsewhere, he's already paying off: three goals and two assists in only three games, with nine shots on goal. He's averaging a whopping 18:22/game already and although he's not on the top power play yet, that's only a matter of time. Given Florida's strong schedule (see below), Verhaeghe is a great add – especially for players who may lose Max Pacioretty or Mark Stone to COVID postponements.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Conor Garland, W, Arizona Coyotes (Available in 60 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Somehow the top-line right wing for the Coyotes is still only owned in 40 percent of Yahoo! leagues, even after putting up 2G-4A in seven games so far with a whopping 27 shots on goal – 3.85 shots/game! Garland's ice time has seen an increase of over three minutes per game over last year, from 14:09 to 17:24, and he hit 21 minutes in his last game which speaks to how much trust the Coyotes have in Garland.
Garland put up 22G-17A last season in 68 games while playing low minutes and of qualified forwards (min. 500 minutes) over the past two seasons sits 27th in goals per 60 at 5v5, and 18th in shots per 60. He's playing first line with Nick Schmaltz and a rotating left wing and top power-play minutes, and there's no ceiling to how many points he can score this season. He's incredibly undervalued – as most Coyotes players are in fantasy – and should be grabbed immediately.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Erik Karlsson, D, San Jose Sharks (Owned in 90 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Although he's playing a ton of minutes early in the year (27:13), Erik Karlsson hasn't put much together fantasy-wise relative to his ownership; Karlsson has only three assists so far with 12 shots on goal (only 31 attempted) and is a huge -8.
The Sharks play in a very strong division defensively and have a horrible upcoming schedule (see below), and it's clear that Karlsson is no longer the threat he was in Ottawa. Playing in a system where the power play is weak (1.3% worse than average this season, 17.4% last year which was 3% less than average) and is now using two defensemen on the top unit – Brent Burns is the other – doesn't bode well for Karlsson's production. Karlsson owners should be concerned in the short term, but his ice time is high enough that he's worth hopping on as a stash.
The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Tony DeAngelo, D, New York Rangers (Owned in 62 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – After putting up a very strong 53 points in 68 games last season, DeAngelo was drafted fairly highly in fantasy leagues and signed a $4.8 million contract with the Rangers. Unfortunately, DeAngelo's poor defensive play and lack of discipline early led to two healthy scratches – which opened the door for Adam Fox on PP1 and more minutes for K'Andre Miller, who although it's early have shown out very well.
Given that 19 of Tony D's 53 points last year came on the power play, losing that role hurts tremendously, as does the fact that DeAngelo's playing two minutes less per game. His point ceiling is lowered, and in leagues that track peripherals he doesn't contribute much in blocks or hits (about one per game each) and is already a minus-5 on the year – and playing alongside Jack Johnson won't help.
Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
Colorado – This upcoming period runs from January 29 until February 10, and the Avalanche have the maximum number of games (seven) during those dates which makes them very, very appealing just from a volume perspective. The one downside for the Avs is that four(!) games come against the stingy Minnesota Wild, while the three remaining come against the Blues (twice) and Coyotes – Colorado is a pretty tough division to accumulate goals in. The Avs should still be able to produce for fantasy owners given their top-end talent and number of games.
Florida – Florida had to wait a while to open the season and have still only played three games as of this writing, but they've scored a whopping 14 goals in those games, and their upcoming schedule couldn't be more appealing: two home games against Nashville are sandwiched by games against the Red Wings – two on the road to kick off this stretch, and two at home to close it out.
Montreal – Having opened with six straight on the road, Montreal finally gets to come home and will play five of their next six at home – with the sixth coming just a short drive away, at Ottawa. The Habs have lit up the scoreboard so far, scoring 29 goals in only six games (average 4.83 goals/game), and given their fancy stats dominance that shouldn't slow down any time soon. Play all Canadiens players with confidence.
Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Toronto – It's tough to consider Toronto a short-term disappointment given they'll be playing Edmonton, Montreal (once each) and Vancouver (three times) this period, but the Leafs have been relatively disappointing so far – averaging 3.25 goals/game, lower than the Canadian division average. Count on Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews as always, but lower expectations for the rest of the Maple Leafs.
San Jose – The Sharks are playing only five games this period – with the huge caveat that they're expected to play Vegas twice so they may not even play five times – and none are appealing matchups: two games each against Vegas and Anaheim, with the last game coming against a surprising Los Angeles Kings roster. Avoid at all costs.
Winnipeg – At the start of this period, the Jets are a decent option – they'll play four games between January 30 and February 4 – but after the 4th will only play one more game this period, on the 9th. Winnipeg plays the Flames four times and Canucks once, with four of those games coming at home. They're a fine option to start a week but shouldn't be counted on in leagues that run Monday to Sunday.
January 29 to February 4 |
Best Bets |
MTL 4.515 – – Home CGY VAN VAN OTT |
PIT 4.4 – Away NYR NYR – Home NJD NJD |
COL 4.4 – Away MIN MIN – Home MIN MIN |
WPG 4.2525 – Away – Home VAN CGY CGY CGY |
NYI 4.21 – Away PHI PHI – Home BUF BUF |
Steer Clear |
LAK 1.2075 – Away – Home ANH |
ARI 1.71 – Away STL STL- Home |
SJS 2.1 – Away – Home VGK VGK |
TOR 2.1 – Away EDM – Home VAN |
VGK 2.28 – Away SJS SJS – Home |
January 30 to February 5 |
Best Bets |
TBL 4.725 – – Home NSH NSH DET DET |
MTL 4.515 – Home CGY VAN VAN OTT |
FLA 4.485 – Away DET DET – Home NSH NSH |
PIT 4.4 – Away NYR NYR – Home NJD NJD |
COL 4.4 – Away MIN MIN – Home MIN MIN |
Steer Clear |
ARI 1.71 – Away STL STL – Home |
TOR 2.1 – Away EDM – Home VAN |
LAK 2.1575 – Away VGK- Home ANH |
WSH 2.83 – Away NYR – Home BOS BOS |
CBJ 2.935 – Away CHI – Home DAL DAL |
January 31 to February 6 |
Best Bets |
MTL 4.605 – Away OTT- Home VAN VAN OTT |
ANH 4.51 – Away LAK – Home STL SJS SJS |
NYI 4.31 – Away PHI – Home BUF BUF PIT |
SJS 4.285 – Away ANH ANH- Home VGK VGK |
PIT 4.2575 – Away NYR NYI- Home NJD NJD |
Steer Clear |
WSH 1.9375 – Away NYR – Home BOS |
LAK 2.1575 – Away VGK – Home ANH |
TOR 2.205 – Away – Home VAN VAN |
DAL 2.6125 – Away CAR CBJ CBJ – Home |
ARI 2.755 – Away STL STL MIN- Home |
February 1 to February 7 |
Best Bets |
MTL 4.605 – Away OTT – Home VAN VAN OTT |
VGK 4.59 – Away SJS SJS – Home LAK LAK |
SJS 4.285 – Away ANH ANH – Home VGK VGK |
PIT 4.2575 – Away NYR NYI – Home NJD NJD |
VAN 4.085 – Away MTL MTL TOR TOR – Home |
Steer Clear |
BUF 2.6125 – Away NYI NYI BOS – Home |
TOR 2.205 – Away – Home VAN VAN |
PHI 2.7825 – Away WSH- Home BOS BOS |
EDM 2.21 – Away CGY – Home OTT |
CHI 2.85 – Away DAL- Home CAR CAR |
February 2 to February 8 |
Best Bets |
NYI 4.405 – Away NYR- Home BUF BUF PIT |
OTT 4.2 – Away EDM MTL – Home MTL EDM |
VAN 4.1325 – Away MTL TOR TOR TOR- Home |
BOS 4.21 – Away PHI PHI – Home BUF BUF |
COL 4.02 – Away STL STL – Home MIN MIN |
Steer Clear |
WSH 2.095 – Away NYR – Home PHI |
WPG 2.1 – Away – Home CGY CGY |
PHI 2.7825 – Away WSH – Home BOS BOS |
CHI 2.85 – Away DAL – Home CAR CAR |
DET 2.85 – Away TBL TBL FLA – Home |
February 3 to February 9 |
Best Bets |
FLA 4.725 – – Home NSH NSH DET DET |
VGK 4.6575 – Away SJS – Home LAK LAK ANH |
TBL 4.515 – Away NSH NSH- Home DET DET |
ANH 4.515 – Away LAK VGK- Home SJS SJS |
LAK 4.3675 – Away VGK VGK – Home ANH SJS |
Steer Clear |
WPG 2 – Away CGY- Home CGY |
MTL 2.4 – Away OTT – Home OTT |
BUF 2.5175 – Away NYI BOS BOS – Home |
CHI 2.7075 – Away DAL DAL- Home CAR |
CAR 2.755 – Away CHI CBJ CBJ – Home |
February 4 to February 10 |
Best Bets |
FLA 4.725 – – Home NSH NSH DET DET |
TOR 4.305 – Away MTL- Home VAN VAN VAN |
OTT 4.305 – Away MTL – Home MTL EDM EDM |
BOS 4.305 – Away PHI NYR- Home BUF BUF |
NSH 4.085 – Away FLA FLA – Home TBL TBL |
Steer Clear |
WPG 2 – Away CGY – Home CGY |
BUF 2.5175 – Away NYI BOS BOS – Home |
CHI 2.7075 – Away DAL DAL – Home CAR |
CAR 2.755 – Away CHI CBJ CBJ – Home |
PHI 2.8875 – Away WSH WSH – Home BOS |