More often than not, teams and players that reach the Stanley Cup Finals suffer a hangover regardless of victory or defeat. With longer-term injuries to Ben Bishop and Tyler Seguin it would unexpected for Dallas to start slow. That just hasn't been the case.

Shadowed by the hot starts of Joe Pavelski, Alexander Radulov and John Klingberg is the hot start of Roope Hintz, who appears to be on the verge of taking another large step forward. Drafted 49^th overall in 2015, he was predicted to become a middle-six forward with top six potential. Second-round prospects tend to slip from the forefront of conscience when they remain in Europe after being drafted. Hintz grew his game playing in Liiga averaging .67 points-per game over the next two seasons.

He popped onto radars in 2017-18 when he moved to North America and spent the year with the Texas Stars producing a respectable 35 points in 70 games.

He started 2018-19 in the AHL and came out of the gate flying with 22 points in 21 games He forced Dallas into calling him up with his play. Hintz was no longer flying under anyone's radar at this point. At age 22 Hintz moved to the NHL for good. In the 58 games that followed he put up a respectable 9-13 for 22 points in 14:03 ice time.  For multi-cat leagues the stat that flagged Hintz as a viable fantasy option were his hits (87). 

After one partial NHL season, talk stirred of Hintz taking the number two center position in camp for the 2019-20 season. He ended up flipping back and forth from left wing to center and second to third line throughout the year. His sophomore season was filled with marginal improvements. He improved in every offensive category, 19-14 for 33 points in 60 games. His shots per game also increased from 1.71 to 2.0. He also saw incremental increases in ice time (:42) and power play (:12). His hit totals dipped slightly to 73 but still very viable for multi-cat leagues.

The Dallas Stars of 2019-20 were a very interesting team. The Stars had been the second-best defensive team in the NHL in goals against, neck and neck with the Boston Bruins, 174 in 69 games. To say they struggled offensively might be an understatement. They were 29^th in the NHL in goals for with 178 (2.57), tucked between the LA Kings and San Jose Sharks. For perspective, Tampa Bay led the league in scoring with 243 (3.47 per game), averaging, almost an entire goal for more than Dallas. Jamie Benn, Seguin, Klingberg, Radulov, and Pavleski all had porous seasons.

An argument could be made COVID helped the Stars more than anyone else. The bright spots of the regular season came from the kids. Miro Heiskanen laid claim to becoming a number one defenceman in the league, and Denis Gurianov finally started to live up to the hype. They both took off in the playoffs. The vets found a second wind and were all once again impact players elevating the team to the Cup Final.

So enter 2020-21 skipping the Stanley Cup hangover, Hintz has 2-5 for seven points in six games. Hintz has surrounded those seven points with two shots per game and 14 hits. If there ever was a yellow-flag dichotomy this might be it – all seven points have come on the man advantage. Zero sustainability. Counter that, he has no points at 5-on-5. Also, zero sustainability.

With 124 career NHL games, Hintz is still three full seasons from his breakout threshold (BT). He's a big guy at 6-3 and 215. This puts his expected BT at 400 games. It doesn't appear Hintz wants to wait another 270 games though.  

In recent memory, the last player drafted in the second or third round that had comments on their hockey IQ and vision follow him around like this was 16 years ago with David Krejci drafted 63^rd overall in 2005. This where comparisons end. They are entirely different players. Hintz plays a heavy, hitting game, whereas Krejci is more finesse.  A better fantasy production comparison would be Tomas Hertl or Rickard Rakell but point be taken, Hintz holds an elite IQ and vision.

Even though all his points have come on the power play, there are more positives in his corner than negatives. With Seguin on the shelf, Hintz has seen a jump in ice time by 3:09 per game, up to 17:54, and a large bump in power play ice time, 2:36 per game to 4:24. In his third season he is seeing regular top-six and first power play minutes.

His shooting percentage is slightly higher this year at 16.7% (+.9) but he's been a pretty efficient scorer throughout his career. In 2017-18 his shooting percentage was 13.8% over 70 games. In 2018-19 it jumped to 18.4% in 21 games before his call up (AHL.com). There might be a small correction coming to that shooting percentage but short career indications are it's mostly sustainable.

His PDO sits at 982, which is low. As the power play production regresses to normal levels, he should start to see 5-on-5 points roll his way. Things should balance out for Hintz, and when they do, there shouldn't be a huge dip in production.

This is a guy that seems destined for at least 40 points this year. Don't get fooled into thinking this hot start will result in a point-per-game season. That's a discussion for a year or two down the road.  One thing that will really help Hintz continue to improve his production is boosting his shots per game year over year. If he can push his shots per game to 2.5 (200+ per 82 games) he'll start teasing that 30-goal marker.

In closing, he's on the cusp of becoming a perennial 30-35 – 65 point, 2.5 shot per game, hit-per-game forward. Since he crossed the pond to North America, there has been nothing but steady progression to all facets of his game. There seems little reason to doubt that won't continue.