A few days ago, I received a message from a reader asking me about when it makes sense to cut bait on an unproductive rookie in a keeper league. I didn't have a quick answer and said that it would be something that would need a much deeper look, so that's what is going to get covered today.

Before we get started, I also wanted to add how excited I am to be joining the DobberHockey team as an Associate Editor. Cam Robinson leaves some big shoes to fill both as a person and as a writer, but I'm ready to take that on starting next week.

In the meantime, back to the hockey content.

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When to Hold'em

Rookies such as Kaapo Kakko, Alexis Lafreniere, and Jack Hughes offer up such tantalizing upside that even when they aren't producing they are valuable in cap leagues. Often a cap league team will have at least one cheap roster filler who puts up only hits on a league minimum contract, and allows the GM to roster an extra expensive player. These high picks and slumping stars are players that you know are going to turns things on at some point, and whether it's another month-and-a-half away, or a year-and-a-half away, the short-term pain is vastly outweighed by the long-term gain.

The output of a roster may not be optimized with a struggling rookie in your lineup, but you can't just let go of the guys that you know are going to be snapped up as soon as you drop them. Patience is key, and it's even tougher to find when your players aren't producing which snowballs into your team overall piling up a few extra losses. When that is happening, often there's a third option that isn't either holding or dropping, and that's trading.

Shopping those young guys around can be an option if you have a few of them and you want to rebalance your lineup. There are always teams who are ready to overpay for youth. In one of my cap leagues this offseason I moved Lafreniere for Elias Lindholm and a first that I flipped for Connor Garland. Giving up a talent like Lafreniere is tough, as he will likely have the best career of the three. However, Garland and Lindholm are two of the better value contracts in the league right now, and it balances some value for the next few years while giving my team an infusion of production this year.

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When to Fold'em

Those players who have value despite not producing are the ones you hold onto (or at least don't drop), but the guys like Vadim Shipachyov, Ty Rattie, and Jimmy Vesey who you bring in speculatively due to great deployment or a possible late breakout are a dime-a-dozen. These players are obviously waiver-wire fodder, and should be cycled through as often as necessary to get whatever stats or extra games you need out of them.  Once they have served their purpose they can be dumped back to the waiver wire to add the shiny toy for next week.

The issue arises for the players that are somewhere between those names. Maybe it's a shallower league and the hot and cold spurts from Joel Farabee have been frustrating you to no end, or like me in a super deep league you're just waiting for Rocco Grimaldi to be given a regular spot in the lineup again. These players are much better than anyone else off the waiver wire pile when they're on, but on the flip side they have prolonged slumps that you don't have any confidence in when they will bust out of it.

Players like those become a bit more of a situational decision, but I typically go through a bit of a mental checklist before dropping anyone. It goes something like this:

-Am I dropping the player right before he plays a game? If so, I wait until a day the player is going to be inactive so I can at least get any extra game stats.

-Is the player going to be claimed on waivers, and if so are there any trade options that I haven't yet explored? Sometimes trading your player gets you a more optimal piece than whoever you would grab off the waiver wire, but in other cases it makes more sense just to force someone to use their waiver priority if they want him.

-If I keep him until the end of the year, would he be a keeper? If so, then he falls into that initial category of the hold'ems (either to trade or to ride out).

-If you're still stuck, reach out to some trusted fantasy minds on Twitter or the Dobber Forums.

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Keeping an Ace up Your Sleeve

Fantasy hockey keeper leagues (and especially cap leagues) are all about balance. The goal is obviously to win a championship, but sustained success is the real peak. The best teams are those that can recycle older and productive players while maintaining a set of youth that they can have to grow into roles with their team. One new young guy per season (two at most) is enough to keep a core going while not hindering the production of a team overall.

Following the model of the Chicago Blackhawks and the Los Angeles Kings through the 2010s can be fun for a time, though it does come with the pain of running out of runway and stomaching a year or two at the bottom of the standings. Fortunately for those of us playing fantasy sports, rebuilds don't (or at least they shouldn't) take as long as a real-life one does, like we're seeing with Los Angeles or the Ottawa Senators. The trades I mentioned earlier can help patch things over for a time, but eventually the players end up getting older and your window closes. The young player(s) you kept can be that final ace up your sleeve when you need to push all your chips in at the end, loading your team up for a final championship before the cycle starts over again.

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All statistics and cap info are all pulled from FrozenTools. Follow me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.

Stay safe!

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Previous Capped Articles:

Expensive Producers and Their Cap Values

Surprising Sophomores in the Top-50 of Our Cap Rankings