Ramblings: Buffalo practicing; Carolina injuries; Garland; Ekblad – February 11

Michael Clifford

2021-02-11

Buffalo hit the ice for practice for the first time in over a week but none of their players from the COVID list returned. That includes names like Taylor Hall, Rasmus Dahlin, Brandon Montour, Jake McCabe, and Rasmus Ristolainen. You will notice that that is their top-line left winger and four of their six from the blue line. They don't officially play again until Monday so they have time to get some bodies back but if they're all positive tests – we don't know their status – it could be longer than Monday until Buffalo is back to full strength.

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After missing their last game with an injury, Martin Necas was on the ice for Carolina's practice on Wednesday. Even though he was in a non-contact jersey, it appears he will make the road trip with Carolina and could return in the next day or two. He was off to a solid start with five points in eight games to go with 2.5 shots per game and over a hit per contest. It is not a full-fledged breakout yet but all the signs are there. Something to keep in the back pocket for the 2021-22 fantasy season.

Vincent Trocheck is also expected to return in short order.

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Jakub Vrana (COVID list) and T.J. Oshie (injury) were both back at practice for the Capitals on Wednesday. This team has been through a lot already this year with delays and positive COVID tests, so getting two top-6 wingers back is a great sign.

I will be interested to see if Vrana maintains his top PP role now that the team is basically back to full strength. Something tells me he won't, but a guy can dream.

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Evgeni Malkin left practice on Wednesday due to an eye issue and did not return. Kasperi Kapanen took his spot on the top PP unit but the more concerning news would be an extended absence due to injury. We will update when we can.

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This, from Jordan Martinook, was something I was wondering:

This is a much more condensed schedule than usual and with cancellations, it will get even more condensed. How is this going to affect play? Should be fun to find out.

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Yesterday was a day that ended in 'Y' so there is another potential coronavirus outbreak on an NHL team. Vegas has at least one positive test, yanked players off the ice on Tuesday night's game, and cancelled practice Wednesday. As of now, their game on Thursday is still set to go. More information to come.

Philly is on pause until next week with, well, you guys get the idea by now.

This is all going well, thank you.

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Brad Marchand scored 36 seconds into overtime to give the Bruins a 3-2 win over the Rangers. It was a tight-checking affair that saw four goals from the teams' respective bottom-6 players before Marchand broke through in the extra frame.

Jake DeBrusk had a game-high seven shots with an assist on Anders Bjork's tally. Might be worth seeing if he's kicking around waiver wires. He could see himself back in the top-6 in short order, just don't dump anyone notable for him.

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In a shortened season with as much tumult as we've had, and will have, there are going to be surprises. I wanted to dig through some early surprises and whether or not they can last.

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Vincent Trocheck

A couple days ago on Twitter I mused that Trocheck really looks like the guy from 3-4 years ago that averaged over 60 points/82 games for three years while also averaging over three shots on target per matchup. So far this season, Trocheck is a point-per-game players averaging over three shots on goal a game. It has been a superlative start to the season for him.

Now, to be sure, his shooting percentage is out of whack. At 18.8 percent, he would clear his previous best in a full season by eight percent. That is obviously going to come down, and the goal scoring will decline with it. That could be a problem, as six of his nine points are goals. However, and this is true, he has yet to register an assist at 5-on-5. As lucky as he might be shooting, he's been equally unlucky in racking up assists. Though the goals will decline, he's due for positive regression with assists. If we took away three goals for a shooting percentage drop, based on prior seasons' assist rates we could add three assists and be right back where we started at a point-per-game player.

As long as Trocheck stays in the 18-19 minute range with PP1 minutes, I'm holding him. This is not a case where I would sell high. The goals will come down, but the assists will come up, and the rest of the peripherals are extremely solid.

Conor Garland

We should probably note that Garland is just a shade shy of four shots per game – 47 in 12 – and has 13 points in 12 games on the year. That is absurd production for about 95 percent of the league, let alone a guy with no draft pedigree, not even two full seasons in the NHL, and in one of the worst environments, historically speaking, for offence. It has just been magnificent.

This is where I need to rain on peoples' parades a bit. The team is shooting over 10 percent with him on the ice, which is very high. Last year, fewer than 20 percent of all regular forwards had an on-ice shooting percentage of at least 10 percent, and most came from high-scoring teams. The rare exceptions were guys like Jack Eichel and Jakob Silfverberg, and they were much closer to 10 percent than to 11. All this is to say I'm skeptical he can stay there, but at the same time, the team's expected goals with him on the ice is at 3.8 per 60 minutes. That is also a very high number, but shows they're playing extremely well offensively, so this isn't entirely a mirage.

I am skeptical of the shot percentage but really, as long as Arizona keeps playing as well as they are, there isn't reason to suspect a huge decline. I would keep holding Garland until his line starts faltering, if that happens.

Jeff Skinner

His contract makes him an easy target, and he does have zero goals on the year. But whenever Buffalo returns, expect an uptick from Skinner. His individual expected goals rate at 5-on-5 is inside the 96th percentile league-wide, comparable to names like Tyler Toffoli and Max Pacioretty, yet has zero goals. Not that he's going to have a monster season playing in Buffalo's bottom-6 and off their top PP unit, but he has been playing well and probably deserves a couple goals to his credit. Don't run to the waiver wires but if Hall's absence extends to when their games restart, Skinner could have some short-term value moved up the lineup.

Aaron Ekblad

A little tip for you guys: Florida's top PP unit is running a little hot this year. So far, with their top PP unit on the ice, the Panthers are scoring 22.4 goals per 60 minutes. That is, uh, a little high. For reference, in 2019-20, no one was above 14 per 60, and four of the five players above 11 goals per 60 minutes were all from Edmonton. If Florida's power play were half as efficient as it is, it would still be one of the top power plays in the NHL by the end of the season. Yes, they are running far too hot.

That is a problem for Ekblad as five of his seven points have come with the man advantage. When those points start drying up, he'll need to make up for them at 5-on-5, and that will be tough to do playing for a team in the bottom-third of the league by expected goals. There are all kinds of signs of regression here, including his own personal shooting percentage. Now is the time to trade him.

Kevin Lankinen

Not long ago, I went on about how Chicago should at least see if Collin Delia is their goaltender of the future. Well, enter Kevin Lankinen, who had never stepped on an NHL ice surface before, posting a .933 save percentage through his first nine games. Not bad!

Two things scare me, though. First, Lankinen is inside the 20th percentile for shot distance, meaning he faces shots closer to the net than the vast majority of NHL goalies. That is, generally speaking, quite bad, as the closer to the net a player is, the higher the chance of scoring. And, as a result, he's also facing nearly the most high-danger shots per 60 minutes of any regular goalie, with only Korpisalo, Holtby, Petersen, and Demko being worse.

Anything can happen in a shortened season, so it's really not impossible to see Lankinen posting something like a .920 the rest of the way, because we're talking maybe 35 starts. But just so everyone knows, it's not a great spot for him. He will need to do a lot of heavy lifting on his own.

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