Christian Dvorak quickly became a Dobber Darling. He was touted one of the best second-round picks of the draft and a real sleeper to outperform his draft position. To put it in context, forum members posed questions such as, "Who would you rather have, Christian Dvorak or Kyle Connor?" Today, it seems a glaringly obvious choice. But in 2015 and into 2016, it wasn't always unanimous.

In April 2016 Dvorak was ranked as the number five prospect with Connor right behind him at six. You can see for yourself here.  Folks were pretty split, often taking Connor in points only pools and preferring Dvorak in multi-cat pools. His monster post-draft year with the London Knights 52-69-121 in 59 games really lit a fire under fantasy owners. There's something extra flashy about a highly-touted prospect coming out of London in the OHL.

Well, like most prospects out of the Arizona Coyotes system it seems, owners that drank the Kool-Aid enjoyed the sugar rush but ended up with a wicked stomach ache. So far.

It's really hard to believe Dvorak was drafted almost seven seasons ago. He had two huge seasons with London in the OHL before joining the Coyotes full time in 2016-17. He had a promising rookie season with 15-18-33 points. This held the hype that had build on him to this point. With a 17% shooting percentage (SH%) and only 88 shots (SOG) something would need to give the following year. Even though he played 78 games he averaged barely over 1.1 shots per game. If he was going to improve on his rookie season, he would either need to validate that slightly inflated SH% or significantly improve his SOG totals.

Well, regression came to his SH%, it dropped to 9.9. His SOG totals almost doubled to 151. The diverging stats led to a second 15 goal season and only a small bump in overall production to 37 points. He saw incremental increase in ice time (+:49) and similarly small increase to power play time (:23).

A lot of owners and fans alike expected a jump in production going into his third season, 2018-19. They couldn't have been more disappointed. He missed most of the year due to injury. This was no small injury – he suffered a torn pectoral muscle that required surgery.  He recovered enough to return for the last 20 games of the year.

The thing with a muscle injury like this is that recovery is slow. As was pointed out in the Jeff Carter article a couple weeks back, significant injuries take significant time to recover. There is a difference between full recovery, consisting of return of full range of motion, strength, and dexterity and being cleared to return to play. Teams never disclose how recovered a player is. It had to have affected his development curve at least somewhat.

Back on the ice in 2019-20 and healthy, Dvorak showed glimpses of improvement to his overall game. He maintained his 2 SOG/game pace from 2017-18 and saw an increase in his SH% to 13.4%.  Having now completed three full NHL seasons he had seen steady incremental increases to his ice time both overall and on the power play, up to 16:42 and 2:44 per game. And his points-per-game average from 0.42 to 0.47 to 0.54.

Also in 2019-20, Dvorak passed his breakout threshold of 200 games. There was no explosion of production. There really wasn't any increase quarter over quarter in production at all before the league shut down. He just rolled along at a steady 45-point pace.

A lot of owners jumped ship and sold low while Dvorak was out with his pectoral muscle injury. They sold real low. 2019-20 demonstrated a glimmer of hope to those that held on and those that acquired him.  There's not a lot of information available on how significant injuries slow or push off a young player's breakout threshold or how long it takes to fully recover, but there appears it appears to be at least surface evidence big injuries have lasting impacts and take a significant amount of time after the player has returned.

With the first quarter of the 2020-21 season now in the books, Dvorak appears ready for a breakout. The breakout, however, won't match his current pace. It can't. He won't. In his first three seasons, his IPP was really consistent at 63.5, 63.8 and 63.6. In his fourth season where he played the last 20 games it dipped to 52.8.  In 12 games this year Dvorak is floating at 86.7.

When you consider for a minute that since 2010-11, Sidney Crosby's career best IPP has been 84.6 and Connor McDavid's has twice had an IPP higher than 86.7, you realize one of two things is going to happen. Either Dvorak will blow up into an elite point producing forward, or his production has been on the right side of luck early this year.  It's pretty clear that a 25.0 SH% and a secondary assist rate of 66.6% should make you realize there's a few points off luck off his stick and Dvorak won't continue above a point-per-game pace for the season.

For multi-cat leagues, Dvorak hits enough to not be a liability in that category. He's on pace for just over 0.5 hits per game this year.  Having averaged a hit per game in his first two years, there's the possibility he can provide a bit more truculence to your lineup. For those in deeper leagues using face-offs, Dvorak is averaging over 18 face-offs a game and winning 51% of them. Winning just over nine face-off wins per game makes him a valuable depth center in those leagues.

How much will Dvorak will settle down? His PDO does sit right smack dab at 1000. His 5×5 SH% is a tidy 7.8% both very sustainable numbers. His power play IPP sits at 100%, points/60 is double his career average at 3.2. This means Dvorak should be able to maintain his current 5×5 scoring. His power play production will fall off.  All told, Dvorak likely finds himself settling into setting career highs across the board with ease.

Dvorak crept over his breakout threshold midway through last season without any sign of an uptick in production. Quarter over quarter, his stats were almost identical. If you accept the argument the pectoral injury punted his breakout down the road a season or so then what you're seeing so far this year makes a lot of sense.

It has been a long frustrating wait for Dvorak owners and fans. Finally, it would seem, they are being rewarded with that long-awaited breakout. Unfortunately, that breakout will provide owners with a lower ceiling than expected back in 2015 and 2016 when expectations were Kyle Connor high.

When looking a possible ceiling and the type of player Dvorak is becoming, Bo Horvat comes to mind. In other words, a really solid dependable two-way center who will give you 60-ish points per season and solidify your face-off stats.  With luck metrics on his side to start 2020-21, he needs 13 goals over the remaining 44 games. If luck holds out a little longer, there's a small chance he could sneak in a 20-goal season and see the 40-point plateau for the first time in his career even in this shortened season.