In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll look at the impact of power-play success rates on your fantasy roster. In particular, we'll focus on an overperforming unit in Washington, as well as underperforming units in Detroit and New York.

Detroit Red Wings

Detroit's offensive struggles in recent years have been well documented. So, it shouldn't surprise you that they've had the league's worst power play over the past four seasons, scoring on 16.4-percent of their opportunities since the 2016-2017 campaign. Last year represents their worst showing of those four seasons, as they scored on 14.9-percent of their chances through 71 games.

As bad as those numbers look, Detroit's power play has gotten off to an even worse start this season. They've scored on just four of their 53 power plays through 17 games this year, which translates to a success rate of 7.6-percent. To give you some perspective, in the last 10 years, only one team has finished the season with a power-play success rate below 12-percent. That team was the 2013-2014 Florida Panthers, who still managed to score on 10-percent of their opportunities. For those of you thinking that this year's condensed schedule may lead to a lower power-play success rate than we've ever seen before, keep in mind that the 10-year span I referenced includes the lockout-shortened season of 2012-2013. Although teams played just 48 games, the worst power-play success rate was 13.8-percent (Winnipeg Jets).

The Red Wings haven't scored a power-play goal in their last eight games, over which they've had 22 chances. Notably, the team has been without Tyler Bertuzzi during this stretch, as an upper-body injury has kept him out of the lineup for Detroit's last eight games. Bertuzzi leads the team with four power-play points through nine appearances this season. While his absence may be hindering the team's power play performance, I think Anthony Mantha, Dylan Larkin and Filip Hronek have enough talent to turn the tide eventually. Don't be too discouraged that Mantha only has one power-play point through 16 games, or that Larkin only has two through 17. If anything, their current struggles allow you to acquire them at a discounted price in fantasy leagues.

New York Rangers

At the beginning of the season, if you told me the Rangers would struggle on the man advantage, I would have laughed in your face and referenced last year's 22.9-percent success rate, as well as the team's abundance of offensive talent. Well, we're a month into the 2021 campaign and New York's power play sits 28^th in the league, converting on just 11.5-percent of their opportunities. Despite the lack of production, there's reason to believe things will improve as the season progresses.

The Rangers have scored on 7.1-percent of the shots they've taken with the man advantage (NaturalStatTrick). That's an uncharacteristically low power play shooting percentage from a team that has so much offensive talent. To give you some perspective, they scored on 15.3-percent of their power-play shots last year. It's not like they're taking lower quality shots either. They've generated 34 high danger chances through 86 minutes with the man advantage this year. In other words, they sit in the top-third of the league when you look at number of high-quality shots taken on the power play. Surprisingly, they've scored on just three of those 34 high danger chances, a conversion rate of 10.7-percent. Last year, they did a much better job of capitalizing on high-quality chances, with a conversion rate of 31.5-percent. As I've said a few times already, the team's top power-play unit features some elite offensive ability in the form of Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, Chris Kreider and Adam Fox – who have taken most of the team's shots on the power play. These are guys with strong finishing ability, and I have faith that the puck will start going in for them more often as the season progresses. At this point in time, there seems to be a large discrepancy between New York's strong effort and the lacklustre results they've produced. Oftentimes, when we see such a discrepancy over a small sample size, it's followed by some correction as the sample grows. I don't think you'd be able to buy low on Panarin or Fox at this point in time, but I'd definitely make an offer for Zibanejad and Kreider. 

Washington Capitals

The Capitals currently have the league's best power play, scoring on 35.5-percent of their opportunities. Such a high success rate on the power play is unsustainable, even when you consider Washington's offensive firepower and power-play prowess over the past few years. In the past 20 years, we've seen only two teams flirt with a 30-percent success rate on the power-play – the 2019-2020 Edmonton Oilers (29.5-percent) and the 2018-2019 Tampa Bay Lightning (28.2-percent). For the most part, a very good power play in today's NHL seems to have a success rate of 22 to 25-percent. Washington's power-play has hovered around this range in recent years, but notably finished with a 19.4-percent success rate last year. The team's power-play personnel has remained pretty much the same for some time now, so I don't see any reason to expect significant improvements from past performances. The top unit features the usual suspects in Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson and T.J. Oshie, but we've also seen Jakub Vrana, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Justin Schultz play prominent roles with the man advantage this season.

What's really important to mention here is that Washington has had just 31 power-play opportunities through 13 games, which translates 2.38 opportunities per game. Only the Ducks have had fewer opportunities, with 2.19 per game. In recent seasons, the Capitals have drawn around three power-plays per game, so there is reason to believe they'll get a few more calls as the season progresses. Why is this so important? Well, we talked about how the team's current power-play success rate is unsustainably high. Power-play success rate equals power-play goals divided by power-play opportunities. Now, normally, we don't expect the rate of power-play opportunities to change too much, so goal scoring is what we focus on. Therefore, when a team has an unsustainably high power-play success rate, we might predict that they'll score less frequently going forward, which would bring that success rate back down to earth. However, in this case, an increase in power-play opportunities may also serve to bring that success rate down. In other words, while Washington is due for some regression on the power-play, having more opportunities going forward could help offset some of that regression. Essentially, I don't think you need to sell high on any of Washington's top players based solely on upcoming power-play regression. However, I would look to trade away Nicklas Backstrom and Justin Schultz as I think their perceived value at present is much higher than their actual value.