Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column.To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – How do the following players rank in a points only league: Jakub Vrana, Kevin Fiala, Roope Hintz, Kasperi Kapanen, Dylan Strome, Denis Gurianov, and Jordan Greenway?

Taking the players one by one, despite his strong showing last year Vrana's ice time is up only a minute, albeit half of which is in the form of added PP deployment. Though his scoring rate has not improved so far as compared to last season, Washington is likely going to find it increasingly difficult to keep him from taking the ice even more given their aging forwards.

Fiala has started slow this season, but that was the same story in 2019-20. He's one of the best players on Minnesota and they know that. The problem is the team is stingy with ice time both in general and on the PP, making it unlikely that anyone – even someone oozing with the talent of Fiala – will be able to surpass a 70-point scoring pace.

Hintz has looked excellent thus far, but that is without Tyler Seguin in the fold. And we saw from last season Hintz was not a favorite of then interim, now official, coach Rick Bowness. So while it's possible Hintz plays well enough to stay in Bowness' good graces until Seguin returns, it's not a certainty and therefore cannot be ignored, nor can Dallas' tendency to revert to being a more defensive-minded team when push comes to shove.

Kapanen was clearly coveted by the Penguins, and we saw even in his time in Toronto when he was able to line up alongside the team's best forwards he performed well. The expectation is for much more consistent deployment in Pittsburgh, where he should be stapled to Sidney Crosby and/or Evgeni Malkin. The issue though is his PP1 time, which thus far had been lacking.

Strome is being thrust into a larger role with Jonathan Toews out indefinitely. And although it looked like last season was a step down for Strome, truth be told he had just one poor quarter and by the end of the slate was playing with Patrick Kane and humming along. The concern with Strome remains his SOG rate, which, although improved, remains below two per game; and he's likely not enough of a pure playmaker to score at more than a 60-point pace in a season unless his shoots the puck more. He also needs a winger like Kane, at least for now.

Gurianov is a great reminder that larger players need more time to break out. He's also helped not only by his strong play but also Dallas' key forwards not getting any younger. Still, as noted above, with the team always being at risk of flipping the switch to become defensively minded, and Gurianov being more of a goal scorer and grinder, points only is not his best format.

Greenway is also a larger player; but unlike Gurianov, he's not getting top six time nor any PP minutes. Perhaps those will come; however, for now he's started unsustainably hot, especially given those factors plus his lack of SOG.

For this season, I'd rate them as Fiala, Vrana, Hintz, Strome, Kapanen, Gurianov, Greenway. For keepers I'd move Vrana to the top and put Strome ahead of Hintz.

Topic #2 – In a redraft league with categories of G, A, PIM, SOG, PPP, and Hits, how would the following five defensemen be ranked: Adam Fox, Ty Smith, Rasmus Andersson, Neal Pionk and Miro Heiskanen?

With Tony DeAngelo's implosion and banishment from New York, plus Fox showing at the end of 2019-20 he was ready for prime time, he represents the best in terms of combined opportunity and talent. If Pionk was still the top PP dog in Winnipeg, that and his hits prowess would rank him highest; however, Josh Morrissey seems to have supplanted him in the PP1 role, at least for the time being. Still, Pionk should still fare well on a high scoring Jets team. Speaking of changes, Andersson seems to have wrestled PP1 away from Mark Giordano and is getting lots of ice time to boot. And most importantly, he's producing. Smith has shown he's oozing with talent yet the Devils seem reluctant to bestow PP1 time upon him thus far; and until/unless that happens, he won't be capable of a breakout the likes of what we've seen in recent years from rookie d-men. Heiskanen is faring well, but it's been the John Klingberg story in Dallas and could remain that way until Klingberg presumably leaves as a UFA after 2021-22.

In a redraft (i.e., one-year league) I'd put Fox first, then Pionk due to him being on Winnipeg, a hit machine, and likely getting a shot at PP1 again before the season is done. Next is Heiskanen because of his talent notwithstanding Klingberg's presence. Then I'd go with Smith because he could continue to break out, and lastly Andersson because like Strome in the previous question even with added ice time a PP1 role he doesn't seem to be seizing the opportunity. The wild card is Smith, who could rise to second if given the keys to PP1, whereas Pionk could drop to third or even fourth if he remains shut out of the PP1 picture. This underscores how much of a differentiator PP time is among d-men; and sure enough, when all is said and done it'll be the most significant determinant in deciding how those ranked second through fifth ultimately fare.

Topic #3 – In a 12-team keeper which counts G, A, Pts, PPPts, SOG and FOW as skater categories, a team has Jack Hughes, who has just graduated from Minors status and must be put on the main roster. Would it be worthwhile to trade Hughes and a 2nd round pick for Sebastian Aho?

In the thread, it shows that Hughes has C and LW eligibility, which is nice since it means he can provide FOW from a winger spot. One key is whether Aho likewise has winger eligibility too, as he as Hughes both take roughly the same number of draws per game, although Aho's rate is likely to hold steady at roughly 6-7 FOW per game whereas Hughes should see his FOW keep rising in coming seasons, as it's more than doubled since 2019-20 with still room to grow.

In my 15 Fearless Forecasts for 2020-21, I predicted a lousy season from Hughes, mainly because of his very poor 2019-20, as not only did he fail to come close to reaching the point per every other game mark, but he barely averaged two SOG per contest. His scoring rate also declined with each passing quarter. In fact, if we go back to 1990-91 and look at other players who, at age 18 and like Jack, had 60+ games played while averaging under 2.1 SOG per game and 0.35 points per game, seven met the criteria and have already played their second year. Of the seven, a mere one (Vincent Lecavalier) exploded as a sophomore, while just two, including Lecavalier, even averaged more than a point per every other game.

Hughes also tied for 45th in PP Time per game among all forwards in 2019-20, yet his nine PPPts ranked him tied for 116th. Also, his IPP was 50%, meaning of all the goals scored while he was on the ice, he nabbed a point on just half. How bad was that? It ranked him tenth worst among all forwards who played 60+ games last season. If anything, centers should have high IPPs, as the offense is supposed to flow through them; so his IPP being so low did not bode well for him to be an impact player in 2020-21. On top of all those factors, there tends to be a #1 overall pick forward bust every ten or so years and it's been nearly that long since Nail Yakupov was grabbed first overall, so although past history is not predictive of the present or future, it seems we were due for a first overall let down, and based on his rookie campaign Hughes looked the part.

However, Hughes seemed to commit himself to training this offseason. That, plus Nico Hischier being hurt early opened the door for Hughes; but after a scorching start he slowed a bit and is still not shooting the puck a ton. Put it this way – Hughes has not done enough, as yet, to completely shut the door on Hischier being the #1 center for the Devils for the time being.

Then there's Aho, who has shown a lot already but is getting to the point where we have to start to wonder whether he has another gear beyond the 80-85 point scoring pace we've seen from him over the past two years and where he seemingly is headed again for 2020-21. He isn't shooting the puck as much as he used to, and he doesn't receive the ice time – at even strength or on the PP – that "star" players tend to get. In fact, for the second campaign in a row his share of PP minutes remains under 60% and his overall ice time per game below 20:00. If Aho is to climb above the 80-85 point pace he's shown over the past two seasons, he'll need the team around him to improve, or to receive better deployment.

What might be the deciding factor here could just be the draft pick, as the potential of Hughes plusa second round pick might be too steep of a price to pay for Aho, who seems stalled at his current production level. If it were me, I'd stick with Hughes if I drafted him.

Topic #4 – In a 24 team cap league where there are 23 main roster spots and 30 farm players, Colin White just graduated from farm status and was dropped by his owner. On a rebuilding team with cap space, is he worth a gamble at 5 years, $4.75M per year knowing that young centers like him are coveted in the league but he'd need to be owned for all five years so if he doesn't pan out that would be a huge albatross?

I was surprised when looking up White's stats that he's now 24, as it seems like not so long ago as 2015 when he was taken in the first round. And although he has a season of 41 points in 71 games to his credit, his stats overall are middling, particularly SOG, as he had just 231 in 155 career games entering 2020-21.

How does he compare to others who've played longer but had similar early outputs? If we look at players who, by age 23, had 150+ career games played, with 65+ points but 250 or fewer SOG, we get a total of 12 more who fit the criteria since 2000-01. Removing the players who are young and whose outcomes are still TBD (Robby Fabbri and Jack Roslovic), the other ten include some who amounted to nothing, but several who had fine NHL careers, including Mike Ribeiro, Brendan Morrow, Jussi Jokinen, and Dave Bolland, plus current Flyer Kevin Hayes. White's stats profile is one that does not disqualify him from still having a successful career.

The issues are that White is still not averaging two SOG per game, and his ice time per game is his lowest since becoming an NHL regular despite playing for the Senators. That's concerning since Ottawa, although it added a good number of talented players this offseason, is the type of team that would seemingly be eager to give him the chance to play, especially since his contract isn't small potatoes.

Although there still is a chance that White connects the dots, the ingredients don't seem to be there from what we're seeing in 2020-21. That, plus the length and amount of his contract make him a tough pill to swallow in a cap league.

Moreover, although it's not determinative in and of itself, White's owner didn't think enough of White to keep him despite how much young pivots are supposedly coveted in this particular league. That is worth noting; and when factoring in the other data, it likely cements White as being someone to not grab here under the circumstances.

Topic #5 – Between Dylan Larkin and Pierre-Luc Dubois [PLD], and based on goals and points, who'll have the better 2020-21 and provide the most upside?

This brings back memories of my days penning Cage Match, where I'd compare two players and determine who the winner was. So how could I resist this topic?

We know that Larkin is "the guy" for Detroit. He's the #1 center now and figures to occupy that spot for many a season to come. Plus, even though he didn't live up to lofty expectations set after his breakout 2018-19, he managed to score at a 61-point pace for a terrible Detroit team last year. Yes, his ice time and PP time have slipped a bit from their peaks in 2018-19, but that's a function of the team starting to improve. He could do well with less ice time if/when Detroit finds a viable second line such that teams can't just key in on Larkin's line all the time.

PLD seemingly gives Winnipeg the second line center it's lacked for the last few seasons, when that spot was a revolving door spot which was occupied by the likes of Bryan Little, Kevin Hayes and now – for the second time – Paul Stastny. The concern is even though Winnipeg uses four forwards on its PP1, there's Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Kyle Connor, who have spots locked up, leaving one spot for PLD, Stastny and Nikolaj Ehlers. The consolation prize is if PLD is relegated to PP2 one of those two will be there as well, plus either Neal Pionk or Josh Morrissey. But look no further than the talented Ehlers, who averaged about one PPP every ten games over the past two campaigns while on PP2, to show that the drop off from the top unit to the second is steep. As I write this PLD has played all of one game for the Jets, but early returns suggest he could be used as a third line center and put on PP2, so not a great near-term outlook.

What it boils down to is whether an unquestioned top dog on a bad team that isn't offensively potent is better than a talented player who might not get the best deployment. Goals don't tilt the scales, as although Larkin shoots more PLD is a far more accurate shooter, such that the goals totals for the two over the past three seasons are 67 for Larkin and 65 for Dubois. Were it not for the presence of Stastny, I'd give the edge to PLD; but by the time Stastny is out of the picture in Winnipeg Detroit should be improved, so Larkin should be getting a boost as well. It's a close call but I take the surefire #1 guy in Larkin for 2020-21 and beyond.

Topic #7 – In a league that counts Goals, Assists, PPP, Hits, Blocks, Shots, +/-, PIM, who is better to own for now and long term – Brayden Point or Andrei Svechnikov?

This is a great opportunity to stress the importance of not falling into the trap of overvaluing a high profile performance from a fantasy perspective. Point was amazing in the 2020 playoffs, tallying 33 points in 23 games without Steven Stamkos even in the line-up and seemingly giving poolies confidence that as Stamkos, who's now 31, ultimately begins to slow, Point can form a potent one-two punch with Nikita Kucherov.

But here's the thing – Point already had an identical stretch of 33 points in a 23-game span (December 22, 2018 to February 18, 2019), and nevertheless has since been more like a point per game player. It hearkens back to a previous mailbag question I had where it was asked whether Nathan MacKinnon was worth taking in a one-year league over Connor McDavid. Part of the reason for the question was the fact that MacKinnon had posted 25 points in just 15 games in the same 2020 playoffs. There I pointed out MacKinnon likely had not only already had his best season due to having turned 25 and based the career trajectories of other elite centers, but he also previously had two separate stretches as scorching as his 25 points in 15 games (136-point pace) that he posted during the playoffs, namely 31 points in 19 games (134-point pace) in 2019-20 and an identical 15 points in 25 games stretch in 2017-18. Although I'm not taking anything away from what Point did, it should not have a major impact on the likely trajectory of a center like him who's set to turn 25 next month.

As for Svechnikov, his sophomore campaign was a huge step forward, and he's showing in 2020-21 that he can do even better. In fact, if things continue as they are now, he'll average over three SOG and just under two hits per game while also giving point per game scoring, which puts him in the rarified air of Alex Ovechkin. On top of that, Svech also chips in with a decent amount of PIM. He's a stat stuffer and scorer, and he plays wing, whereas Point has center only eligibility in most if not all leagues, with center being the deepest position in hockey. Plus, although Point has carried over his increased SOG rate from the playoffs into 2020-21, this is a player who does not hit a lot nor rack up PIM and who figures to have only a bit more – if even more – PPP than Svech in the coming years.

If this was a points-only league where positions didn't matter, a case could be made to consider Point. But here the pick is Svech, by a good margin. Be sure to use this as a reminder not to be so struck by playoff – or, by a similar token, preseason – performance as to have it interfere with properly rating a player's true value/potential when using a league's actual categories.

Topic #8 – Can Aaron Ekblad still turn into a truly elite defenseman? On the one hand he just turned 25, yet on the other this is his seventh season in the NHL. Keith Yandle is playing well enough to remain in the picture, for now, although one has to wonder how much longer that can continue. Could Ekblad break out later, ala Victor Hedman, or is it that given how long Ekblad has already been in the league what we see is likely the best we'll get?

Looking at defensemen who, like Ekblad, had played 450+ games by the age of 24, we come up with only ten others in NHL history. But half had majorly broken out by age 21, making them not good bases for comparison.

Who are the other five? Wade Redden, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Morgan Rielly, Seth Jones, and Glen Wesley. Rielly is intriguing, as through age 24 he had only 31 more points than Ekblad in 12 more games, and we know that Rielly did have a post-24 breakout. Jones had his breakout at age 23, so he's probably not a good one against whom to draw comparisons. Vlasic never scored at a 50-point-pace, which Ekblad has already done, so perhaps he too isn't a great comparison. Redden, like Ekblad, was a top three pick and his best early season was 47 points in 78 games at 23, which is pretty close to what Ekblad did at 24. Redden went on to tally 50 points in 65 games at age 28, but from there his career went downhill pretty fast. Wesley had 54 points at age 20, but then no more than 46 until tallying 58 at 25, after which he was slowed by injuries and faded from the spotlight, so probably not a great comparison. Overall, Ekblad seems most similar to Rielly and Redden, which bodes well for him.

What else do we learn from looking at Rielly and Redden? Rielly's SOG rate was climbing each year, whereas Ekblad's had dropped for two seasons before upticking in 2019-20 and trending even higher in 2020-21, and Redden never had huge SOG totals.

One key is despite Yandle still being in the picture, Ekblad is seeing more PP time and making the best of it, with, as I write this, two-thirds of his points coming on the man advantage. His ability to score on the PP is key, as out of 30 instances of 60+ point scoring rearguards dating back to the 2010-11 season, all but two had 20+ PPPts, and more than half had 25+, during that same campaign.

Ekblad's overall ice time is also up, and as of now would mark the highest per game average of his career by close to 90 seconds and his PP time per game average is nearly double what it was in 2019-20. Florida certainly seems to be paving the way for Ekblad to be a #1 defenceman in every sense, in which case it seems like he'd be a decent bet to perhaps follow the trajectory of Rielly more so than the others comparables. I'd put Ekblad's floor at a 55 point pace for the time being, with a shot at a 60+ point pace if his ice times stay favorable and an even higher rate if Yandle is pushed aside entirely. So can Ekblad turn into an elite defenseman? I'd say it's more likely than not to occur based on past precedent and current trends.

************

Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of the mailbag has room for more questions, so if you want my opinion on specific players or your teams, go ahead and ask away. To get your question(s) to me, you can either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.